Breaking even. Time of year?

[abgespaced]

Is it just me or is breaking even the norm around this time of year?

Almost every market I'm involved in has either tanked or broken even since the year started.

I'm aware that the UK races volume drops off over this period until April, but I'm surprised to see it happening across the board, especially on other sports that were profitable prior to the holiday break.

Is this common this time of year or is something else going on?

[alexmr2]

This is naturally one of the poorest times of the year for trading going by what others say. In my experience I feel that there are slightly more unusual things going on but I find it very hard to quantify despite having about 15k markets behind me, I think it takes a lot more time to have a true idea

For example, some times I can't get my head around why certain markets are so volatile, why a HCAP race steams in or takes a massive move or why some horses go full reversal. The market seems to do as it pleases even if it often makes no sense, usually in the short term

I have only been trading a little over 2 years and usually I have some slow progress over a week and then start geting caught up in making the usual amateur mistakes which leads to me giving away my weeks profit. If I could just walk away and not trade from an emotional perspective then in theory I wouldn't be losing money

[jamesg46]

This is naturally one of the poorest times of the year for trading going by what others say. In my experience I feel that there are slightly more unusual things going on but I find it very hard to quantify despite having about 15k markets behind me, I think it takes a lot more time to have a true idea

For example, some times I can't get my head around why certain markets are so volatile, why a HCAP race steams in or takes a massive move or why some horses go full reversal. The market seems to do as it pleases even if it often makes no sense, usually in the short term

I have only been trading a little over 2 years and usually I have some slow progress over a week and then start geting caught up in making the usual amateur mistakes which leads to me giving away my weeks profit. If I could just walk away and not trade from an emotional perspective then in theory I wouldn't be losing money

It's difficult to answer the OP's original question because different people profit from different strategies in different markets based on different scenarios that come from different seasons... I'd imagine profits are less this time of year but changes create different opportunities.

In regards to the market doing what they want, there usually is a reason behind most moves. Take the steamer in a Hcap you mentioned, it could be that the steaming runner likes lead the pack, the jockey has a claim, it's in a stall draw that's positive & the recent form is good... maybe it's a Class 4 horse running in a Class 5 race with all of the above in its favour. The problem most people have is they take a position wanting to anticipate a move and then search for reasons why it will work... it should be the opposite way around.. knowing that people are likely to back it for a back to lay = 1 positive, knowing that the jockey has a claim = 2nd positive and so on. It's not the way you (im generalising here) look at the market, it's about finding what others will see and how obvious is it... the more obvious, the more confident, the more confident the bigger the position.

People tend to think that there is some abc type of trade that is profitable, it's simply not true, every race is different, with different variables the main ones mentioned above, betting people will want positives in form etc, traders who are looking for money to go down are simply searching for those things in anticipation that others are likely to bet on an outcome based on that hypothesis.

In summary, the market doesn't do what it wants, it goes with the majority.

[Euler]

This time of the year is very weak for me. I would probably only early 20% of what I can in the summer.