What is wrong with Tuesdays??

The sport of kings.
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Xeres
Posts: 52
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:56 pm

My question is more related to placing win bets rather than trading since that is what I mostly do.

I have been running models for a few years now and Tuesdays stick out like a sore thumb in the performance charts as being by far the worst performing day profit wise.

My overall win rate is 31% over 12k bets, Tuesdays are lower on 25%.

Profit wise though, in the last year Tuesdays has lost me 70 points, all other days are 50+ with Mondays being the best day at 80 points. Mondays is also the day where I get the best win rate on average at 35% - all days have a similar number of bets over the last year.

I've created a few models to see if the days are significant statistically speaking, and I've done monte carlo simulations and the data tells that Tuesdays are not a good day - but why?? This is based on my own predicted winners, so it might well be something missing within my model that isn't controlling for conditions present on Tuesdays (I don't include days of the week within my model)

Could there be some kind of manipulation of the results going on? I've checked obvious things like race types, class etc and nothing is sticking out?
Mr.Teeny
Posts: 42
Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2021 10:18 am

Probably less racing on a Tuesday so maybe the variance doesn’t get chance to play out , compared to other days when there are more races? Though Mondays are also usually pretty quiet too, so you would expect to see similar results on a Monday if that was the case.

Could just be variance? I assume if you have a 31% win rate you are playing at shorter or prices, or maybe backing multiple selections in the same race? Hard to say without knowing exactly what you are doing.

If you are playing at bigger prices it could just be variance. It would only take a couple of 33/1 2nds beaten in a photo to turn into winners and then maybe tuesdays could be your most profitable day?
waytogo78247
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:12 pm

If you are using level stakes for research to get ROI, try using AE as it is far more accurate, especially when samples get smaller.
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