To back n lay or lay n back, that is the question.

The sport of kings.
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Brovashift
Posts: 475
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

Hi all, newbie question here...

Is there a general rule when trading pre off?
I have heared someone say they always lay first and look to back closer to the start. But I have been watching prices today and most were shortening the closer it got to the start.

My theory was that prices shortening the closer it gets to the start, which I assumed could be because the odds of a horse not running at this point are greatly reduced, and the odds of it winning are slightly improved by just being in the race after the off. So Id have said back early and lay before the off.

Or is it more of a case of trying to gauge market sentiment by identifying key price points that act as resistance and potentially move price in the opposite direction? A bit like support & resistance levels on financial charts and ladders?

Any insights appreciated. Thanks.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

Its an illusion that there are more steamers than drifters, the overall book will always stay at slightly above 100% for the lay side and slightly under for the back side, so if a runner comes in by 5% that means the other runners will drift a combined 5%.
Chance of non runners has nothing to do with it either as there is a reduction factor applied in that case.
People will be trading both drifters and steamers, some might have a preference, personally i do best with mid price drifters, but it shouldnt really matter if you back or lay first.
Snaff
Posts: 172
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:26 pm

Brovashift wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 12:55 am
Hi all, newbie question here...

Is there a general rule when trading pre off?
I have heared someone say they always lay first and look to back closer to the start. But I have been watching prices today and most were shortening the closer it got to the start.

My theory was that prices shortening the closer it gets to the start, which I assumed could be because the odds of a horse not running at this point are greatly reduced, and the odds of it winning are slightly improved by just being in the race after the off. So Id have said back early and lay before the off.

Or is it more of a case of trying to gauge market sentiment by identifying key price points that act as resistance and potentially move price in the opposite direction? A bit like support & resistance levels on financial charts and ladders?

Any insights appreciated. Thanks.
You will find some days a lot are been backed and another day a lot been laid. Over time it will just even out. You will think to have found all kinds of niches when you look enough but generally most even out from my findings. Good luck 👍
Anbell
Posts: 2006
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Brovashift wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 12:55 am
Hi all, newbie question here...

Is there a general rule when trading pre off?
I have heared someone say they always lay first and look to back closer to the start. But I have been watching prices today and most were shortening the closer it got to the start.

My theory was that prices shortening the closer it gets to the start, which I assumed could be because the odds of a horse not running at this point are greatly reduced, and the odds of it winning are slightly improved by just being in the race after the off. So Id have said back early and lay before the off.

Or is it more of a case of trying to gauge market sentiment by identifying key price points that act as resistance and potentially move price in the opposite direction? A bit like support & resistance levels on financial charts and ladders?

Any insights appreciated. Thanks.
One thing to consider is that you can usually deploy more of your bank if you back first.
Anbell
Posts: 2006
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Brovashift wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 12:55 am
Hi all, newbie question here...

Is there a general rule when trading pre off?
I have heared someone say they always lay first and look to back closer to the start. But I have been watching prices today and most were shortening the closer it got to the start.

My theory was that prices shortening the closer it gets to the start, which I assumed could be because the odds of a horse not running at this point are greatly reduced, and the odds of it winning are slightly improved by just being in the race after the off. So Id have said back early and lay before the off.

Or is it more of a case of trying to gauge market sentiment by identifying key price points that act as resistance and potentially move price in the opposite direction? A bit like support & resistance levels on financial charts and ladders?

Any insights appreciated. Thanks.
One thing to consider is that you can usually deploy more of your bank if you back first.
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Brovashift wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 12:55 am
Hi all, newbie question here...

Is there a general rule when trading pre off?
I have heared someone say they always lay first and look to back closer to the start. But I have been watching prices today and most were shortening the closer it got to the start.

Any insights appreciated. Thanks.
Write down your idea. Use small stakes and then consistently try it out. Make a simple automation and then do something like for whole day back each favourite for minimum stakes 10 minutes out and green up 10 seconds before the off and then try for a whole day laying each favourite 10 minutes out and greening up 10 seconds before the off.

Some suggested reading. viewtopic.php?f=17&t=23699
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Brovashift
Posts: 475
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

Thank you all for your replies, there should be a way to give a thumbs up or a thanks on here for each posts...

Big thinks to gazuty for the link to your long post for newbies, and love the little break away's to the quotes and songs :lol: matches my mentality exactly haha...
I have started a document like you suggest to log my ideas and experiences, I am a serial note taker anyway. I have traded commodities in the past and can relate to a lot of what you say in your post. Sports trading seems to largely be a mental game just the same. Even if you work out a winning strategy, the mental side is an ongoing battle, which is why they say to trust in your process, rather than trying to be discretionary on a daily basis. I guess effective discretion comes with time and experience.

I feel like I am at the start of a very long journey, but am hoping my prior experience of financial trading might help me progress a little faster [fingers crossed]. But I know from experience trading mainly crude oil, that it took me about 5 years to reach a level of competency, a journey which is far from over... which will probably never be over. But like the saying goes; every journey starts with a single step.... Here I go....
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Snaff wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 9:59 am
You will find some days a lot are been backed and another day a lot been laid.
That's purely anecdotal. Those days just stand out because our chimp brains love those sort of patterns, there's no evidence that happens any more than any other random set of outcomes, unless you can prove otherwise?
foxwood
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

Brovashift wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 12:55 am
My theory was that prices shortening the closer it gets to the start
Steamers and drifters generally form a normal distribution so prices go up as often as down.

Graph below is from a few years back and shows tick movements and backing for the 20 minute favourite in horse racing based on approx 2 years races UK and IRE (23512)

Steamers to the left (-ve ticks) and drifters to the right (+ve ticks) from 20 minute price
BackFav1byTicks.jpg
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sniffer66
Posts: 1666
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

foxwood wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 7:43 pm
Brovashift wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 12:55 am
My theory was that prices shortening the closer it gets to the start
Steamers and drifters generally form a normal distribution so prices go up as often as down.

Graph below is from a few years back and shows tick movements and backing for the 20 minute favourite in horse racing based on approx 2 years races UK and IRE (23512)

Steamers to the left (-ve ticks) and drifters to the right (+ve ticks) from 20 minute price
BackFav1byTicks.jpg
Anyone else finish this sentence singing "Here I am, stuck in the middle with youuuu!" ?
foxwood
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:54 pm

sniffer66 wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 7:48 pm
Anyone else finish this sentence singing "Here I am, stuck in the middle with youuuu!" ?
Didn't see that - coffee spitting moment :lol: :lol:
sniffer66
Posts: 1666
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

foxwood wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 7:57 pm
sniffer66 wrote:
Fri May 21, 2021 7:48 pm
Anyone else finish this sentence singing "Here I am, stuck in the middle with youuuu!" ?
Didn't see that - coffee spitting moment :lol: :lol:
:D :D
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