Horses that should drift, but refuse to...

[stueytrader]

I'd like to add, I've just actually lost on one of these types (though it was a shortie).

I trade layed Healing Power in the 1.30 Leicester (after it had already shortened considerably). I wanted to lay the selection, but also felt it would bounce at least a bit before the off.

Negatives - not best form recently (last place in previous race), not done it on turf as an AW specialist. Trading very short (as low as 1.49).

It didn't bounce from where I entered, so I ended up with a losing lay on the trade - the lay bet of course would have been perfect (it finished out the front 2 in a small field).

[decomez6]

Good question napshnap

better without having traded back my trading lays.

Second point is I feel I could enhance my laying ability with adding trading to those lays - but there's something I need to change and improve about my trading approach for these selections.

‘Deep sea fishing ‘ requires a well rehearsed emergency plan .
I would only add onto positions that are doing well and running out of steam or even better reverse reverse them to get a small ride on the opposing wave/ bounce back . Reason being , you have had a good run and you can almost smell the fear and pressure from the loosing side.

A check list on the conditions needed to meet criteria must be in your muscle memory.
If you decide to trade pre -off , you will have little time to follow up a race to its conclusion , because you are bussy trading the next race.
If you choose to give it a try ( you probably have),
Take a keen look at the inplay trader tool.
You have a full market view on price ranges and their consequent interactions . You do it a couple of times then you get a gut feeling on how race might end up .
Combine it with good pictures from the live stream , you almost got yourself an edge.
Lay trade with greening at low prices with a reasonable offset should give you a feel on what’s going on with your other targets.
May be combine with the fundamentals, like .. form line, dobbs history, pace maps etc ..
then you can map out the glitches wherever they are occuring.
Just a thought, I am not doing it myself. I prefer to learn one thing at a go and then diversify later .

[stueytrader]

Seriously considering whether my trading should be avoided altogether when I want to lay.

The number of my selections that get backed by the market but still run poorly is very frustrating.

Good example yesterday look at Curragh 5.55 - Peregrine Run my lay selection.

Horse is trading around 17.0-19.0 range, where I've laid intending to trade, it does briefly enter the 20's ranges, but then most oddly is crashed back into as low as 9.6!

Of course that ruins my lay trade. However, as I predicted, in terms of the race it finishes unplaced 8th position.

Do backers want to give their money away or something in these cases??

[stueytrader]

Just to answer an obvious question - yes I could have greened when it briefly went into the 20s prices. However I had predicted a bigger drift, so didn't activate it at that time.

[wearthefoxhat]

Seriously considering whether my trading should be avoided altogether when I want to lay.

The number of my selections that get backed by the market but still run poorly is very frustrating.

Good example yesterday look at Curragh 5.55 - Peregrine Run my lay selection.

Horse is trading around 17.0-19.0 range, where I've laid intending to trade, it does briefly enter the 20's ranges, but then most oddly is crashed back into as low as 9.6!

Of course that ruins my lay trade. However, as I predicted, in terms of the race it finishes unplaced 8th position.

Do backers want to give their money away or something in these cases??

Sounds like you're able to identify a poor/losing runner.

Maybe, wait for confirmation of the price, when it starts to steam, then you can lay it at shorter odds. Better than Laying it at bigger odds.

Cos it steams, it doesn't mean it's smart money...probably the dumb money.

[stueytrader]

Seriously considering whether my trading should be avoided altogether when I want to lay.

The number of my selections that get backed by the market but still run poorly is very frustrating.

Good example yesterday look at Curragh 5.55 - Peregrine Run my lay selection.

Horse is trading around 17.0-19.0 range, where I've laid intending to trade, it does briefly enter the 20's ranges, but then most oddly is crashed back into as low as 9.6!

Of course that ruins my lay trade. However, as I predicted, in terms of the race it finishes unplaced 8th position.

Do backers want to give their money away or something in these cases??

Sounds like you're able to identify a poor/losing runner.

Maybe, wait for confirmation of the price, when it starts to steam, then you can lay it at shorter odds. Better than Laying it at bigger odds.

Cos it steams, it doesn't mean it's smart money...probably the dumb money.

Yes, you're right that would be better, though sods law if I've not entered my lay they so often don't seem to shorten (paranoia and annoyance inducing!).

I'm just not sure why so many horses shorten (steam even) when there is little reason for it! I knew the above horse very well from previous historical analysis. Maybe I knew too much, because dumb backers wanted to waste money on it, as you suggest - dumb money appears for some reason at times.

[stueytrader]

Overall though, I agree with your point, I should just wait for these dumb shorteners and hit them at that point.

[wearthefoxhat]

Overall though, I agree with your point, I should just wait for these dumb shorteners and hit them at that point.

Example of Dumb money, probably cos of Hollie being booked for the ride. However, soft ground an issue.

AftaParty6th.png

Far left of the screen - Easy L2B - Let it Ride example. (Probably a Place Lay qualifier in hindsight)

AftaParty.png

[stueytrader]

Yep, can be a jockey issue sometimes I agree with these overbacked ones.

Check out SDS ride and finishing place at Lingfield 4.45 today - Magical Mile the horse.

Was trading one point around 1.68 pre-race market, ended up virtually pulled up in a 7furlong race!

[wearthefoxhat]

Yep, can be a jockey issue sometimes I agree with these overbacked ones.

Check out SDS ride and finishing place at Lingfield 4.45 today - Magical Mile the horse.

Was trading one point around 1.68 pre-race market, ended up virtually pulled up in a 7furlong race!

Write up said' Bumped start, but pushed along 4f out, then eased. Pegasus wouldn't of got home in that race...well maybe....

[stueytrader]

Yep, can be a jockey issue sometimes I agree with these overbacked ones.

Check out SDS ride and finishing place at Lingfield 4.45 today - Magical Mile the horse.

Was trading one point around 1.68 pre-race market, ended up virtually pulled up in a 7furlong race!

Write up said' Bumped start, but pushed along 4f out, then eased. Pegasus wouldn't of got home in that race...well maybe....

There were masses of potential fundamentals against Magical Mile - it had virtually never run on turf, and certainly not soft ground. Yet, despite that the market backed it like it should win by 5 lengths. The truth (hindsight) is that it was never going to run any sort of race in terms of ability on that ground. Also another one for the market 'efficiency' debate.