Estimate of correct price faller

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stueytrader
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I think I've managed to make an accurate estimate on what the 'correct price' should be for a horse (in jumps racing) to be a faller/not to fall. But, my analysis is not fully compete, just a work in progress.

Just wondered what others would price this as a general estimate figure.

Obvious caveats: this will vary from horse to horse, as some are more likely to fall than others, but estimating across all as an 'average' for a start of jumps race, what is the odds a horse will fall?

My own estimate is that a runner in hurdles racing (as average) is 1.1 to jump around without falling during the race.

Be interested if anyone agrees/disagrees as my calculation? Higher or lower.
stueytrader
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Sorry, actually should clarify, that calculation also includes unseated runs (I'm kind of lumping that in together with fallers should clarify).
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wearthefoxhat
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stueytrader wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:19 am
Sorry, actually should clarify, that calculation also includes unseated runs (I'm kind of lumping that in together with fallers should clarify).
Just a guess.

Often a horse is around 1.01 when clear and jumping the last fence.

So 100/1 divided by number of fences in the race. Factor in if they are stiff fences/hurdles, or the selections that have history of poor jumping.
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Andriy
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Your figure for hurdles seems way off, far too high. Hurdles are very much a standard design across most courses, whereas chase fences are typically a lot firmer/well made at the top tracks, and so are probably more track dependent.

For hurdles, in the 4 calendar year period between 1 Jan 2015 to 31 Dec 2018, there were 11,305 hurdle races in UK/Ireland with 111,983 runners. The number of fell or unseated rider was 3400, equating to 3.04% of runners. I suspect your figure is high since you've included pulled up horses (9.33%), and it may be 'fail to complete' is what you're after?
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Euler
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I did some work on this a long time ago. I'll see if I can find it.
stueytrader
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Andriy wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:15 am
Your figure for hurdles seems way off, far too high. Hurdles are very much a standard design across most courses, whereas chase fences are typically a lot firmer/well made at the top tracks, and so are probably more track dependent.

For hurdles, in the 4 calendar year period between 1 Jan 2015 to 31 Dec 2018, there were 11,305 hurdle races in UK/Ireland with 111,983 runners. The number of fell or unseated rider was 3400, equating to 3.04% of runners. I suspect your figure is high since you've included pulled up horses (9.33%), and it may be 'fail to complete' is what you're after?
Actually, you may be right, I think I may have accidentally included some pulled up in my analysis. That would explain my inflated price to not fall/unseat in a race.

Out of interest is your figure from your own analysis, or some other reference source?
stueytrader
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Thanks, some interesting points in those articles. Obviously, there's also a point that fallers/unseats will be a bit higher for Chase races as opposed to Hurdles too.
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Dublin_Flyer
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I did a bit of looking and my search results from 2016 to this Thursday are very close to Andriy's, I've tabulated hurdles and chases separately and there's a difference to be noted in the percentage of pull ups in hurdles v chase, and non hcap v hcap in both spheres.

The faller/unseated year by year seems very static in hurdles, the PU rate in hcap hurdles and chase is both higher than non-hcap of the same type.

How and ever, here's my non-finishers stats for hurdles and chase including UK AND IRE races from 2016 to Thursday gone.
Apologies for the layout if it's eyecancer to you, just reorder it and quit your whining 8-)
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Derek27
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stueytrader wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:58 am
I think I've managed to make an accurate estimate on what the 'correct price' should be for a horse (in jumps racing) to be a faller/not to fall. But, my analysis is not fully compete, just a work in progress.

Just wondered what others would price this as a general estimate figure.

Obvious caveats: this will vary from horse to horse, as some are more likely to fall than others, but estimating across all as an 'average' for a start of jumps race, what is the odds a horse will fall?

My own estimate is that a runner in hurdles racing (as average) is 1.1 to jump around without falling during the race.

Be interested if anyone agrees/disagrees as my calculation? Higher or lower.
It largely depends on the horse. Sprinter Sacre jumped like a cat, would shorten up if he got too close, hard to imagine him falling. I've seen a few terrible jumpers that I'd make about 1.7 to get round.

It depends on the race length as well but I 1.1 seems quite high for a hurdler.
stueytrader
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Thanks Dublin and Derek, some very good points and examples to consider there.

Yes, my working figure of 1.1 for hurdles was too big, I realise.

Like Derek says there's also the very tricky issue of fitting the data to specific selections too.
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