What is the favourite–longshot bias?
The tendency to overvalue “longshots” and undervalue favourites is widely known in the world of sports betting and finances as the favourite-longshot bias. Learn what it is, how bookmakers take advantage of it and what you can do to survive it with a profit.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
It's so well known there's not much to be had from it on Betfair imo.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favouri ... favourites.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favouri ... favourites.
When I was betting on horse racing I found the value usually lay with decent horses that were overlooked in the betting, usually because of an overrated favourite. Most of the horses I backed were between 6.0 and 20.0.azfyazfy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:19 pmThe tendency to overvalue “longshots” and undervalue favourites is widely known in the world of sports betting and finances as the favourite-longshot bias. Learn what it is, how bookmakers take advantage of it and what you can do to survive it with a profit.
You left out the word relatively undervalue favourites. Favourites are grossly overvalued on average but less so than other horses because bookies need to be competitive with the horse that most of the money's going on.azfyazfy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 14, 2021 6:19 pmThe tendency to overvalue “longshots” and undervalue favourites is widely known in the world of sports betting and finances as the favourite-longshot bias. Learn what it is, how bookmakers take advantage of it and what you can do to survive it with a profit.
longshot ?
BSP is relatively effecient
bookies are way ahead of the game and some players seem to overlook the sophisticated machinery behind any bets you place.
i guess the bookies like it when we think they are danm.
that being said,
if a bias is quantifiable ,it forms part of the pricing process hence the odds on display.