Hi all,
I was watching the dutching video on the BA blog last night:
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/hors ... the-loser/
and just wanted to clarify how you could potentially lose using this method. Am I correct in thinking that the only way you are likely to lose when dutching is if your closing position doesn't get matched before the end of the race? So in this scenario you would lose your inital stake?
So before just blindly using the dutching tool to try this approach, would it be advisable to do some analysis to try and pick a potential drifter, to better your chances of ensuring the closing position gets matched.
Or..... is it more just a case of picking a horse thats not likely to win? Is it that simple?
I see it working in practice mode by just blindly following the tutorial, but want to understand it better, limitations etc. before trying live.
TIA
How can you lose when Dutching?
If the horse you're trading in-running loses then it will invariably get matched for a 10% profit. But there will be the odd occasion when it wins without being matched, in which case you'd lose.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:11 pmHi all,
I was watching the dutching video on the BA blog last night:
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/hors ... the-loser/
and just wanted to clarify how you could potentially lose using this method. Am I correct in thinking that the only way you are likely to lose when dutching is if your closing position doesn't get matched before the end of the race? So in this scenario you would lose your inital stake?
So before just blindly using the dutching tool to try this approach, would it be advisable to do some analysis to try and pick a potential drifter, to better your chances of ensuring the closing position gets matched.
Or..... is it more just a case of picking a horse thats not likely to win? Is it that simple?
I see it working in practice mode by just blindly following the tutorial, but want to understand it better, limitations etc. before trying live.
TIA
- Brovashift
- Posts: 475
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am
Cheers DezDerek27 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:23 pmIf the horse you're trading in-running loses then it will invariably get matched for a 10% profit. But there will be the odd occasion when it wins without being matched, in which case you'd lose.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:11 pmHi all,
I was watching the dutching video on the BA blog last night:
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/hors ... the-loser/
and just wanted to clarify how you could potentially lose using this method. Am I correct in thinking that the only way you are likely to lose when dutching is if your closing position doesn't get matched before the end of the race? So in this scenario you would lose your inital stake?
So before just blindly using the dutching tool to try this approach, would it be advisable to do some analysis to try and pick a potential drifter, to better your chances of ensuring the closing position gets matched.
Or..... is it more just a case of picking a horse thats not likely to win? Is it that simple?
I see it working in practice mode by just blindly following the tutorial, but want to understand it better, limitations etc. before trying live.
TIA
So I am picking a loser... but Im guessing if a selection needs to be matched @1000, to give that one a miss, as is anyone likely to take the other side at those odds?
If you're going for a 10% margin like in Peter's example it won't be necessary to go all the way up to 1000. 10% is the difference between 2.5 and 3.35 or 5.0 and 10.0.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:30 pmCheers DezDerek27 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:23 pmIf the horse you're trading in-running loses then it will invariably get matched for a 10% profit. But there will be the odd occasion when it wins without being matched, in which case you'd lose.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:11 pmHi all,
I was watching the dutching video on the BA blog last night:
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/hors ... the-loser/
and just wanted to clarify how you could potentially lose using this method. Am I correct in thinking that the only way you are likely to lose when dutching is if your closing position doesn't get matched before the end of the race? So in this scenario you would lose your inital stake?
So before just blindly using the dutching tool to try this approach, would it be advisable to do some analysis to try and pick a potential drifter, to better your chances of ensuring the closing position gets matched.
Or..... is it more just a case of picking a horse thats not likely to win? Is it that simple?
I see it working in practice mode by just blindly following the tutorial, but want to understand it better, limitations etc. before trying live.
TIA
So I am picking a loser... but Im guessing if a selection needs to be matched @1000, to give that one a miss, as is anyone likely to take the other side at those odds?
- Brovashift
- Posts: 475
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am
Ah right, Im with yaDerek27 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:07 pmIf you're going for a 10% margin like in Peter's example it won't be necessary to go all the way up to 1000. 10% is the difference between 2.5 and 3.35 or 5.0 and 10.0.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:30 pmCheers Dez
So I am picking a loser... but Im guessing if a selection needs to be matched @1000, to give that one a miss, as is anyone likely to take the other side at those odds?
Thanks mate.
Im guessing this will work on the football then yes? Margin maker on the draw.
I always find that until you play live, with real money, you know nothing.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:11 pmHi all,
I was watching the dutching video on the BA blog last night:
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/hors ... the-loser/
and just wanted to clarify how you could potentially lose using this method. Am I correct in thinking that the only way you are likely to lose when dutching is if your closing position doesn't get matched before the end of the race? So in this scenario you would lose your inital stake?
So before just blindly using the dutching tool to try this approach, would it be advisable to do some analysis to try and pick a potential drifter, to better your chances of ensuring the closing position gets matched.
Or..... is it more just a case of picking a horse thats not likely to win? Is it that simple?
I see it working in practice mode by just blindly following the tutorial, but want to understand it better, limitations etc. before trying live.
TIA
You can read a manual as to how to ride a bike all you like, but until you straddle the bike, start peddling and scrape your exposed hand against a wall, you know nothing about cycling.
From that point onwards, with everything you do you will learn, and learn for good!
Good luck to you!
- Realrocknrolla
- Posts: 1903
- Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm
Love the bicycle analogy.Tuco wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:47 pmI always find that until you play live, with real money, you know nothing.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:11 pmHi all,
I was watching the dutching video on the BA blog last night:
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/hors ... the-loser/
and just wanted to clarify how you could potentially lose using this method. Am I correct in thinking that the only way you are likely to lose when dutching is if your closing position doesn't get matched before the end of the race? So in this scenario you would lose your inital stake?
So before just blindly using the dutching tool to try this approach, would it be advisable to do some analysis to try and pick a potential drifter, to better your chances of ensuring the closing position gets matched.
Or..... is it more just a case of picking a horse thats not likely to win? Is it that simple?
I see it working in practice mode by just blindly following the tutorial, but want to understand it better, limitations etc. before trying live.
TIA
You can read a manual as to how to ride a bike all you like, but until you straddle the bike, start peddling and scrape your exposed hand against a wall, you know nothing about cycling.
From that point onwards, with everything you do you will learn, and learn for good!
Good luck to you!
Dutching is all about backing two or more, or all selections to return a profit. You can't do it on a single selection - that's just a bet!Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:41 pmAh right, Im with yaDerek27 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:07 pmIf you're going for a 10% margin like in Peter's example it won't be necessary to go all the way up to 1000. 10% is the difference between 2.5 and 3.35 or 5.0 and 10.0.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:30 pm
Cheers Dez
So I am picking a loser... but Im guessing if a selection needs to be matched @1000, to give that one a miss, as is anyone likely to take the other side at those odds?
Thanks mate.
Im guessing this will work on the football then yes? Margin maker on the draw.
- Brovashift
- Posts: 475
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am
I was thinking more along the lines of backing/dutching the (1 X 2), all 3 outcomes?Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:18 pmDutching is all about backing two or more, or all selections to return a profit. You can't do it on a single selection - that's just a bet!Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:41 pmAh right, Im with ya
Thanks mate.
Im guessing this will work on the football then yes? Margin maker on the draw.
Not sure how I had it set before to be giving me @1000 when checking the margin maker checkbox, sorted it now, Im getting my head round it slowly lol
- Brovashift
- Posts: 475
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am
I hear what youre saying, and just chucked a tenner at it for a 10% margin to see what happens with Ecuador v Venezuela in half hour.Tuco wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:47 pmI always find that until you play live, with real money, you know nothing.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 2:11 pmHi all,
I was watching the dutching video on the BA blog last night:
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/hors ... the-loser/
and just wanted to clarify how you could potentially lose using this method. Am I correct in thinking that the only way you are likely to lose when dutching is if your closing position doesn't get matched before the end of the race? So in this scenario you would lose your inital stake?
So before just blindly using the dutching tool to try this approach, would it be advisable to do some analysis to try and pick a potential drifter, to better your chances of ensuring the closing position gets matched.
Or..... is it more just a case of picking a horse thats not likely to win? Is it that simple?
I see it working in practice mode by just blindly following the tutorial, but want to understand it better, limitations etc. before trying live.
TIA
You can read a manual as to how to ride a bike all you like, but until you straddle the bike, start peddling and scrape your exposed hand against a wall, you know nothing about cycling.
From that point onwards, with everything you do you will learn, and learn for good!
Good luck to you!
I've had 3 red days this week on the racing, Im trying to grow my account, not piss it down the drain lol.
I've never been into dutching but I'm sure a more volatile market like horse racing would be more suitable. With football match odds, you'd just be waiting for a goal or lack of a goal for a period of time for your book to close. Wrong team scores and you may never close. There are much better strategies for football.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:35 pmI was thinking more along the lines of backing/dutching the (1 X 2), all 3 outcomes?Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:18 pmDutching is all about backing two or more, or all selections to return a profit. You can't do it on a single selection - that's just a bet!Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:41 pm
Ah right, Im with ya
Thanks mate.
Im guessing this will work on the football then yes? Margin maker on the draw.
Not sure how I had it set before to be giving me @1000 when checking the margin maker checkbox, sorted it now, Im getting my head round it slowly lol
- Brovashift
- Posts: 475
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am
This was my first time dutching tonight and exactly that happened... Ecuador scored at 41min and I still wasn't matched. Backed @1.38 and needed to get matched @1.62. In hindsight that was a big ask for 10%. My theory was that Venezuela @12.5 would shorten close to kick off or soon after, and send Ecuador odds out, but they remained around 1.4. I thought Venezuela were better than that lol.Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:58 pmI've never been into dutching but I'm sure a more volatile market like horse racing would be more suitable. With football match odds, you'd just be waiting for a goal or lack of a goal for a period of time for your book to close. Wrong team scores and you may never close. There are much better strategies for football.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:35 pmI was thinking more along the lines of backing/dutching the (1 X 2), all 3 outcomes?
Not sure how I had it set before to be giving me @1000 when checking the margin maker checkbox, sorted it now, Im getting my head round it slowly lol
SocceeMystic was saying with no goals odds would be 1.61 around 28mins in, but the goal came at 41min and the odds were @1.5.
Nevermind, at least it was only £10.
Out of curiosity, what 'much better' football strategies do you use?
I like LTD, but have been trying to scalp before kick off to try and get a risk free bet on LTD, with limited success.
Also backing Under 2.5 goals, but haven't done that much after getting caught by early goals in 3 matches on the trot using £100 stakes. Its difficult to accept a -£64 loss, but in the minutes after while I am coming to terms with the sting another goal goes in and I lose the lot! Lol. Not framing my trade... more like gambling!
As I said in the previous post, dutching isn't really suitable for football.Brovashift wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 12:52 amThis was my first time dutching tonight and exactly that happened... Ecuador scored at 41min and I still wasn't matched. Backed @1.38 and needed to get matched @1.62. In hindsight that was a big ask for 10%. My theory was that Venezuela @12.5 would shorten close to kick off or soon after, and send Ecuador odds out, but they remained around 1.4. I thought Venezuela were better than that lol.Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:58 pmI've never been into dutching but I'm sure a more volatile market like horse racing would be more suitable. With football match odds, you'd just be waiting for a goal or lack of a goal for a period of time for your book to close. Wrong team scores and you may never close. There are much better strategies for football.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:35 pm
I was thinking more along the lines of backing/dutching the (1 X 2), all 3 outcomes?
Not sure how I had it set before to be giving me @1000 when checking the margin maker checkbox, sorted it now, Im getting my head round it slowly lol
SocceeMystic was saying with no goals odds would be 1.61 around 28mins in, but the goal came at 41min and the odds were @1.5.
Nevermind, at least it was only £10.
Out of curiosity, what 'much better' football strategies do you use?
I like LTD, but have been trying to scalp before kick off to try and get a risk free bet on LTD, with limited success.
Also backing Under 2.5 goals, but haven't done that much after getting caught by early goals in 3 matches on the trot using £100 stakes. Its difficult to accept a -£64 loss, but in the minutes after while I am coming to terms with the sting another goal goes in and I lose the lot! Lol. Not framing my trade... more like gambling!
I like scalping two over/under n.5 markets simultaneously and balancing the risk between them. Bear in mind that strategies don't win, they're just the basic framework of a plan. What wins is your execution of a strategy, when you decide to enter, exit, at what price, etc. Just experiment with small stakes until you see light at the end of the tunnel. No need to use £100 stakes. But perhaps focus on limiting your losses. Before placing a bet on the 2.5 market, look at the 1.5 betting, work out what your position would be if a goal goes in, what your position will be if no goal in 10-15 minutes, consider when you intend to close trade, decide in advance if you're going to close trade on a goal,etc.
I've once been stung by a second goal going in in the 2.5 market while I was considering whether to red-up or give it more time. That was the first and last time it happened. From that point onwards I've always decided in advance what I would do depending on the potential liability.
...that is exactly what happened to meRealrocknrolla wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:03 pmLove the bicycle analogy.Tuco wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 7:47 pmI always find that until you play live, with real money, you know nothing.
You can read a manual as to how to ride a bike all you like, but until you straddle the bike, start peddling and scrape your exposed hand against a wall, you know nothing about cycling.
From that point onwards, with everything you do you will learn, and learn for good!
Good luck to you!
Tried to ride a bike that was too big for me and didn't peddle quickly enough, so started to learn towards the left where I scraped my exposed hand (which was on the outside edge of the handlebars) against the wall I was trying to slow down and stop against.
Lesson quickly learnt and more importantly remembered!
A football 'match odds' market would perhaps be the worst market to try this play - if the team who you are looking for the 10% margin on score first you're buggered and won't get matched at the desired 10% margin odds, and if the other team score first you'll be getting matched at unfavourable odds once the market is unsuspended after the goal! ...and there's no reason that the draw will be matched at the 10% either unless one team scores the first two goals!Derek27 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 9:58 pmI've never been into dutching but I'm sure a more volatile market like horse racing would be more suitable. With football match odds, you'd just be waiting for a goal or lack of a goal for a period of time for your book to close. Wrong team scores and you may never close. There are much better strategies for football.Brovashift wrote: ↑Thu Nov 11, 2021 8:35 pmI was thinking more along the lines of backing/dutching the (1 X 2), all 3 outcomes?
Not sure how I had it set before to be giving me @1000 when checking the margin maker checkbox, sorted it now, Im getting my head round it slowly lol
Quite right in that volatile in-play markets like horse racing are much better suited to this style of play with people over-reacting to their positions and what that are seeing.