True odds calculation

[azfyazfy]

Hi everyone

I stuck in a problem of how to calculate true odds in horse racing,
And I found 4 methods of calculating true odds. But the useful method is the power method.

The power method of calculating true odds is the best.

Please help me to solve how power method works

[gazuty]

Hi everyone

I stuck in a problem of how to calculate true odds in horse racing,
And I found 4 methods of calculating true odds. But the useful method is the power method.

The power method of calculating true odds is the best.

Please help me to solve how power method works

An interesting conundrum to be sure - solving the "true" odds. I am not familiar with the 4 methods or the power method, so alas I cannot assist in your quest.

However, and forgive me, but you say:

The power method of calculating true odds is the best.

If you know it is the best then are you not familiar with the method? How can you judge if it is the best if you do not know the method?

After all, if you don't eat your meat, how can you have any pudding?

[ShaunWhite]

I stuck in a problem of how to calculate true odds in horse racing,

Many thousands of people have been trying to do that for about 250 yrs. The method iI'd like to understand is https://www.tradematesports.com/blog/bi ... ts-betting.

Good luck.

[Archery1969]

I stuck in a problem of how to calculate true odds in horse racing,

Many thousands of people have been trying to do that for about 250 yrs. The method iI'd like to understand is https://www.tradematesports.com/blog/bi ... ts-betting.

Good luck.

Hi Shaun,

I found this but dont know if its valid.

Cheers,


Bill Benter classified various types of factors into five groups.

Current Condition
- Performance in recent races
- Time since last race
- Recent workout data
- Age of horse

Past Performance
- Finishing position in past races
- Lengths behind the winner in past races
- Normalized times of past races

Adjustments to Past Performance
- Strength of competition in past races
- Weight carried in past races
- Jockey’s contribution to past performances
- Compensation for bad luck in past races
- Compensation for advantageous or disadvantageous post position in past races

Present Race Situational Factors
- Weight to be carried
- Today’s jockey’s ability
- Advantages or disadvantages of the assigned post position

Preferences which could Influence the Horse’s Performance in Today’s Race
- Distance preference
- Surface preference (Turf vs Dirt)
- Condition of surface preference (Wet vs Dry)
- Specific track preference

[wearthefoxhat]

Not sure what you mean by the power method.

IMO, the odds calculated on each horse in a given race must take into account many variables and then be weighted accordingly. If you can get that combination right, then you're on your way.

I'm at the stage where I have produced a spreadsheet where I focus on key variables, race conditions..etc. The more data the better. If it can be "mastered," then you have as near to the holy grail in betting there is. The aim is then to identify what is perceived as "Value" in the race. It still surprises me how the market can still get things out of skew. (usually trading bots over betting)

It's important to remember, there will always be unusual/unexpected results in a race, ending in an outcome that can't easily be explained. (usually a shrewd gamble or stable, or maybe a fix)

It's also important to understand what the "odds compiler" sees and how they shape the race. This was more relevant back in the day, as nowadays many use the odds checker website to appraise the odds. (even betfair when they seed the race overnight).

One other aspect is to adapt to what information is available to the general public and what is not. There's plenty of free info that does the job well. Usually, the real information/data needs to be paid for. (not tips)

[wearthefoxhat]

I stuck in a problem of how to calculate true odds in horse racing,

Many thousands of people have been trying to do that for about 250 yrs. The method iI'd like to understand is https://www.tradematesports.com/blog/bi ... ts-betting.

Good luck.

Hi Shaun,

I found this but dont know if its valid.

Cheers,


Bill Benter classified various types of factors into five groups.

Current Condition
- Performance in recent races
- Time since last race
- Recent workout data
- Age of horse

Past Performance
- Finishing position in past races
- Lengths behind the winner in past races
- Normalized times of past races

Adjustments to Past Performance
- Strength of competition in past races
- Weight carried in past races
- Jockey’s contribution to past performances
- Compensation for bad luck in past races
- Compensation for advantageous or disadvantageous post position in past races

Present Race Situational Factors
- Weight to be carried
- Today’s jockey’s ability
- Advantages or disadvantages of the assigned post position

Preferences which could Influence the Horse’s Performance in Today’s Race
- Distance preference
- Surface preference (Turf vs Dirt)
- Condition of surface preference (Wet vs Dry)
- Specific track preference

Just saw this. Good post.

[Derek27]

You can calculate the true odds in roulette: numbers in your favour / numbers against you.

If you could do the same with horse racing it would be impossible to win. Bookies would calculate the odds and not offer them! Betting on horse racing is all about using your judgement of a horses ability and potential and having better judgement than the average person, and long may that continue. When I was a punter I was probably making money out of people who were wasting their time on systems and looking for ways to calculate the true odds.

[wearthefoxhat]

You can calculate the true odds in roulette: numbers in your favour / numbers against you.

If you could do the same with horse racing it would be impossible to win. Bookies would calculate the odds and not offer them! Betting on horse racing is all about using your judgement of a horses ability and potential and having better judgement than the average person, and long may that continue. When I was a punter I was probably making money out of people who were wasting their time on systems and looking for ways to calculate the true odds.

What you say is about right. Essentially most punters have their own algorithm(s). (some without realising it) If the algo has an error in it, it will fire out decisions that in the long term will lose. eg: Daily Mirror. Spotform+SF+BettingForecastFav = Selection. (losing algo)

Nowadays, there's more worthwhile information on websites/forums that can produce an edge. Using experience and judgement, it's just a question of sifting through them and testing things out.

[Archery1969]

You can calculate the true odds in roulette: numbers in your favour / numbers against you.

If you could do the same with horse racing it would be impossible to win. Bookies would calculate the odds and not offer them! Betting on horse racing is all about using your judgement of a horses ability and potential and having better judgement than the average person, and long may that continue. When I was a punter I was probably making money out of people who were wasting their time on systems and looking for ways to calculate the true odds.

You saying Bill Benter wasted his time on what he devloped, seems to me he made a heck of allot of money ?

"William Benter (born 1957) is an American and Hong Kong professional gambler and philanthropist who focuses on horse betting. Benter earned nearly $1 billion through the development of one of the most successful analysis computer software programs in the horse racing market."

[Derek27]

You can calculate the true odds in roulette: numbers in your favour / numbers against you.

If you could do the same with horse racing it would be impossible to win. Bookies would calculate the odds and not offer them! Betting on horse racing is all about using your judgement of a horses ability and potential and having better judgement than the average person, and long may that continue. When I was a punter I was probably making money out of people who were wasting their time on systems and looking for ways to calculate the true odds.

You saying Bill Benter wasted his time on what he devloped, seems to me he made a heck of allot of money ?

"William Benter (born 1957) is an American and Hong Kong professional gambler and philanthropist who focuses on horse betting. Benter earned nearly $1 billion through the development of one of the most successful analysis computer software programs in the horse racing market."

Does he even look like a serious gambler.

Capture.GIF

The fact that he needs to hold up a bundle of cash to identify himself as a successful gambler makes me struggle to take him seriously!

This thread is about calculating the true odds for a horse. I don't know how he made his money but it won't be by calculating the true odds for horses taking into account what cereal they had for breakfast. If one horse has been flying on the gallops while another has been on the easy list with an injury and only 80% fit, his computer software will not know.

When I was punting the most important factor for me was a horses style of running, physique and stride. You can sometimes tell a horse tried over seven furlongs will excel over the middle distances when given a chance, or the big long-striding horse is going to struggle with the likes of Goodwood and Chester. How will software and algorithms detect that?

Billions have been invested in technology to automatically do what many drunks do over Christmas - drive a car, and it's still not ready yet. This is a very much harder project to mimic what the human brain can do.

[Euler]

When you dig a bit deeper in the Hong Kong betting syndicates, most of them never 'beat' the book as it was pool betting. So there wasn't a counterparty as such.

But most of the money they made was by betting close to breakeven and getting a rebate. So nearly all the yield they got was through the rebate, not calculating then placing value bets and being better than average.

When you are getting a 5% rebate, you it makes it so much easier to beat the market!!! If I could get back £50 for every £1k staked I'd be buying football clubs left right and centre!

[azfyazfy]

Please search on the Google,
ADJUSTING TRUE ODDS TO ALLOW FOR VIGORISH.

It's a pdf file, download and read it u will understand what I mean to say

[Derek27]

Please search on the Google,
ADJUSTING TRUE ODDS TO ALLOW FOR VIGORISH.

It's a pdf file, download and read it u will understand what I mean to say

Could you not do the search yourself and post a link? Forumites will then be more willing to help you.

All I can say is that if you adjust true odds they are no longer true odds, because you've adjusted/changed them. If you adjust them to allow for "vigorish" they would be extremely distorted and far from true odds!

[alexmr2]

IMO the most accurate way to calculate the true odds is to write the numbers 1-XX (depending on how many horses are the race) on some chicken nuggets and take them to the north pole and throw them on the ground infront of a seal. Make a note of whichever numbers it doesn't eat and then add them together and divide by the total number of horses in the race. Then you must take that number and the name of the horse to the fortune teller on Blackpool Pier and they will put it into their machine which will print out a ticket with the true odds on it.

I'm sorry if anyone on here still uses this method and is annoyed that I revealed their edge but the process is quite lengthy anyway, which is why most traders resort to trading orderflow

[Realrocknrolla]

IMO the most accurate way to calculate the true odds is to write the numbers 1-XX (depending on how many horses are the race) on some chicken nuggets and take them to the north pole and throw them on the ground infront of a seal. Make a note of whichever numbers it doesn't eat and then add them together and divide by the total number of horses in the race. Then you must take that number and the name of the horse to the fortune teller on Blackpool Pier and they will put it into their machine which will print out a ticket with the true odds on it.

I'm sorry if anyone on here still uses this method and is annoyed that I revealed their edge but the process is quite lengthy anyway, which is why most traders resort to trading orderflow

You forgot to add… travel by donkey from the North Pole to Blackpool.