Pre-Off Volatility

[agog]

After months of studying/trading the pre-off horse racing markets and beginning to make progress, the last 3 days have left me flummoxed.

The markets seem to have suddenly become incredibly volatile pre-off with big surges and sudden huge bets all over the place. I've found them impossible and it seems that the whole nature of the markets has suddenly changed.

Is this usual for this time of year? I've been doing this since last March and haven't noticed such conditions, to persist like this, before...

[Thebest147]

Think Peter mentioned this before January February are two dangerous months for pre off trading, I have a bot that might help you, when the previous race is about to start I back the fave 6 ticks higher then last traded price with fill or kill for 15 seconds and have it to continue right up to post time,you might not get matched all the time but you are taking a valuable entry point the Market rarely will go in a straight line so you should have a opportunity to take small reds if and when required,and offcourse let profit run to full potential

[Dallas]

It all centres around liquidity or lack of it this time of year and I'm afraid it's going to be like this and even worst till March then things will start to pick up again.
Have a look at this blog with gives a little more detail and context
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/betf ... g-seasons/

[agog]

Think Peter mentioned this before January February are two dangerous months for pre off trading, I have a bot that might help you, when the previous race is about to start I back the fave 6 ticks higher then last traded price with fill or kill for 15 seconds and have it to continue right up to post time,you might not get matched all the time but you are taking a valuable entry point the Market rarely will go in a straight line so you should have a opportunity to take small reds if and when required,and offcourse let profit run to full potential

Cheers for this. I agree that I need to adopt a different strategy until the markets come through this period and your post has given me a couple of ideas - much appreciated.

[agog]

It all centres around liquidity or lack of it this time of year and I'm afraid it's going to be like this and even worst till March then things will start to pick up again.
Have a look at this blog with gives a little more detail and context
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/betf ... g-seasons/

Cheers Dallas - just read the blog and it's very reassuring to know that it's a seasonal thing. As a rough rule of thumb I usually only trade races that have had over 100k matched volume at about 4 minutes pre-off and this has still been the case - but I realise now that this doesn't mean the LIQUIDITY is there.

Your help and advice, as always, is much appreciated.

[goat68]

It all centres around liquidity or lack of it this time of year and I'm afraid it's going to be like this and even worst till March then things will start to pick up again.
Have a look at this blog with gives a little more detail and context
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/betf ... g-seasons/

Cheers Dallas - just read the blog and it's very reassuring to know that it's a seasonal thing. As a rough rule of thumb I usually only trade races that have had over 100k matched volume at about 4 minutes pre-off and this has still been the case - but I realise now that this doesn't mean the LIQUIDITY is there.

Your help and advice, as always, is much appreciated.

It's interesting:
Trade later, less volatility, price closing in on bsp, more predictable, but less potential value...
Trade earlier, more volatility, prices more wild, less predictable, but more potential value...

[Anbell]

It all centres around liquidity or lack of it this time of year and I'm afraid it's going to be like this and even worst till March then things will start to pick up again.
Have a look at this blog with gives a little more detail and context
https://www.betfairtradingblog.com/betf ... g-seasons/

Cheers Dallas - just read the blog and it's very reassuring to know that it's a seasonal thing. As a rough rule of thumb I usually only trade races that have had over 100k matched volume at about 4 minutes pre-off and this has still been the case - but I realise now that this doesn't mean the LIQUIDITY is there.

Your help and advice, as always, is much appreciated.

It's interesting:
Trade later, less volatility, price closing in on bsp, more predictable, but less potential value...
Trade earlier, more volatility, prices more wild, less predictable, but more potential value...

GOAT - I'm curious about what you think about this thought bubble, a few months later

[goat68]

Cheers Dallas - just read the blog and it's very reassuring to know that it's a seasonal thing. As a rough rule of thumb I usually only trade races that have had over 100k matched volume at about 4 minutes pre-off and this has still been the case - but I realise now that this doesn't mean the LIQUIDITY is there.

Your help and advice, as always, is much appreciated.

It's interesting:
Trade later, less volatility, price closing in on bsp, more predictable, but less potential value...
Trade earlier, more volatility, prices more wild, less predictable, but more potential value...

GOAT - I'm curious about what you think about this thought bubble, a few months later

my bots trade both early and late now, but "adjust" accordingly!