Betfair’s Mechanism.
In my opinion a bias kicks in every 30 seconds and we are all at the mercy of it trying to 2nd guess it. Does this basically make any wisdom of the crowd null and void? One machine dominating opinion? If your to measure the market then where do you start? I know the’s a lot of bright people on here so interested to hear your thoughts?
Snaff wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:32 pmIn my opinion a bias kicks in every 30 seconds and we are all at the mercy of it trying to 2nd guess it. Does this basically make any wisdom of the crowd null and void? One machine dominating opinion? If your to measure the market then where do you start? I know the’s a lot of bright people on here so interested to hear your thoughts?
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- jamesedwards
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I think the OP means when something happens that is unexpected, adverse to market trend, and apparently random.
eg a high-roller wanders in as part of a session of random gambling and drops a couple of hundred on the favourite because he likes the name.
eg a high-roller wanders in as part of a session of random gambling and drops a couple of hundred on the favourite because he likes the name.
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What type of thing do you mean? A price spike, a volume spike, a lull, every race or a certain grade, from a certain time out? Got the data, just don't know what you want someone to look for.Snaff wrote: ↑Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:32 pmIn my opinion a bias kicks in every 30 seconds and we are all at the mercy of it trying to 2nd guess it. Does this basically make any wisdom of the crowd null and void? One machine dominating opinion? If your to measure the market then where do you start? I know the’s a lot of bright people on here so interested to hear your thoughts?
Well just in general you can see the markets mechanically driven. On horses there are jolts all the time kicking it back in line. Same on the dogs 1.30 the will be a kick and settle at 1.00 and then another kick. It’s like Betfair’s running it’s own book and gobbling up punters cash when it feels it’s out of line.
That's simply somebody placing a bet and moving the market a few ticks.Snaff wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 9:45 amWell just in general you can see the markets mechanically driven. On horses there are jolts all the time kicking it back in line. Same on the dogs 1.30 the will be a kick and settle at 1.00 and then another kick. It’s like Betfair’s running it’s own book and gobbling up punters cash when it feels it’s out of line.
I must admit the fact that you see the same thing at the same time does look like Betfair hedging, especially as they were very open about integration PP business into their system.
People have forgotten the XM debacle when it turned out Betfair were shaving the rounded value of XM positions in their favour. So you couldn't say with full certainty that Betfair are not active in their own markets, directly or by proxy. But it's pure speculation.
People have forgotten the XM debacle when it turned out Betfair were shaving the rounded value of XM positions in their favour. So you couldn't say with full certainty that Betfair are not active in their own markets, directly or by proxy. But it's pure speculation.
Gives me a bit of confidence that I’m not going completely insane .Euler wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:58 amI must admit the fact that you see the same thing at the same time does look like Betfair hedging, especially as they were very open about integration PP business into their system.
People have forgotten the XM debacle when it turned out Betfair were shaving the rounded value of XM positions in their favour. So you couldn't say with full certainty that Betfair are not active in their own markets, directly or by proxy. But it's pure speculation.