Betfair’s Mechanism.

The sport of kings.
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Snaff
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In my opinion a bias kicks in every 30 seconds and we are all at the mercy of it trying to 2nd guess it. Does this basically make any wisdom of the crowd null and void? One machine dominating opinion? If your to measure the market then where do you start? I know the’s a lot of bright people on here so interested to hear your thoughts?
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Derek27
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Snaff wrote:
Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:32 pm
In my opinion a bias kicks in every 30 seconds and we are all at the mercy of it trying to 2nd guess it. Does this basically make any wisdom of the crowd null and void? One machine dominating opinion? If your to measure the market then where do you start? I know the’s a lot of bright people on here so interested to hear your thoughts?
:?:
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Trader724
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I thought I was the only one still drinking.
Archery1969
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Trader724 wrote:
Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:54 pm
I thought I was the only one still drinking.
:lol:
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jamesedwards
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I think the OP means when something happens that is unexpected, adverse to market trend, and apparently random.

eg a high-roller wanders in as part of a session of random gambling and drops a couple of hundred on the favourite because he likes the name.
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ShaunWhite
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Snaff wrote:
Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:32 pm
In my opinion a bias kicks in every 30 seconds and we are all at the mercy of it trying to 2nd guess it. Does this basically make any wisdom of the crowd null and void? One machine dominating opinion? If your to measure the market then where do you start? I know the’s a lot of bright people on here so interested to hear your thoughts?
What type of thing do you mean? A price spike, a volume spike, a lull, every race or a certain grade, from a certain time out? Got the data, just don't know what you want someone to look for.
Snaff
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Well just in general you can see the markets mechanically driven. On horses there are jolts all the time kicking it back in line. Same on the dogs 1.30 the will be a kick and settle at 1.00 and then another kick. It’s like Betfair’s running it’s own book and gobbling up punters cash when it feels it’s out of line.
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Derek27
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Snaff wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 9:45 am
Well just in general you can see the markets mechanically driven. On horses there are jolts all the time kicking it back in line. Same on the dogs 1.30 the will be a kick and settle at 1.00 and then another kick. It’s like Betfair’s running it’s own book and gobbling up punters cash when it feels it’s out of line.
That's simply somebody placing a bet and moving the market a few ticks.
Snaff
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That someone runs to an exact time scale and has for many years then.
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Euler
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I must admit the fact that you see the same thing at the same time does look like Betfair hedging, especially as they were very open about integration PP business into their system.

People have forgotten the XM debacle when it turned out Betfair were shaving the rounded value of XM positions in their favour. So you couldn't say with full certainty that Betfair are not active in their own markets, directly or by proxy. But it's pure speculation.
Atho55
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Are you sure that`s not the result of runners being withdrawn....
Snaff
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Euler wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:58 am
I must admit the fact that you see the same thing at the same time does look like Betfair hedging, especially as they were very open about integration PP business into their system.

People have forgotten the XM debacle when it turned out Betfair were shaving the rounded value of XM positions in their favour. So you couldn't say with full certainty that Betfair are not active in their own markets, directly or by proxy. But it's pure speculation.
Gives me a bit of confidence that I’m not going completely insane 😆.
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Euler
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I regularly compare data from the markets over many different periods and years. So I can spot sudden changes to the market with a few days and qualify them if they persist. So I do see odd things.
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Kai
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Ofc BF milk their own cashcow, who could even regulate this dark pool, in the preoff sphere especially, ppl will generally abuse anything that's open to abuse
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Trader724
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Whoever uses BF works for BF. We are bees. Guess who gets the most honey.
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