Bail Out!

[dldtaylor]

Hi Everyone. I'm just getting back to grip with Bet Angel after a 2 year break. I would be grateful for a bit of advice on what I call Bailing Out. Say, for example, you've placed a Dob or Dutch just prior to the start of a race, and within the first few seconds of the race, what is the best way to get out of the trade? Up until now, I've set the Ctrl key on my keyboard to green up, and hit that. But due to the speed of price movement in-play, sometimes greening stakes aren't matched. On these occasions I just keep hitting the Ctrl key until they are. But this doesn't seem a very satisfactory method. Is there a more effective way? TIA

[eightbo]

There are points in the ladder where you can reduce your liability at a fair price, avoid all else if you're focused on good edge, and size such that you can take hits if you can't find one of those points on a selection/particular race.

Monitor the market manually and try to identify those points, then utilise them either manually or automated.

Naturally it will be harder as the race progresses and the market becomes more volatile, so you could also consider something like taking half out before the prices start to get volatile or a variation of that.

[megarain]

Hi Everyone. I'm just getting back to grip with Bet Angel after a 2 year break. I would be grateful for a bit of advice on what I call Bailing Out. Say, for example, you've placed a Dob or Dutch just prior to the start of a race, and within the first few seconds of the race, what is the best way to get out of the trade? Up until now, I've set the Ctrl key on my keyboard to green up, and hit that. But due to the speed of price movement in-play, sometimes greening stakes aren't matched. On these occasions I just keep hitting the Ctrl key until they are. But this doesn't seem a very satisfactory method. Is there a more effective way? TIA

This is the wrong approach.

Unless u have live pics of all races you are involved in, a Bail-out button will be giving away an edge.

I would suggest you reduce stakes. Bail-out rules will be v complex and given the current demise of in-running markets, negative EV.

Repeatedly hitting the Ctrl key will kill your bank v quickly.

[goat68]

Hi Everyone. I'm just getting back to grip with Bet Angel after a 2 year break. I would be grateful for a bit of advice on what I call Bailing Out. Say, for example, you've placed a Dob or Dutch just prior to the start of a race, and within the first few seconds of the race, what is the best way to get out of the trade? Up until now, I've set the Ctrl key on my keyboard to green up, and hit that. But due to the speed of price movement in-play, sometimes greening stakes aren't matched. On these occasions I just keep hitting the Ctrl key until they are. But this doesn't seem a very satisfactory method. Is there a more effective way? TIA

Assuming your initial bet has value just go with that, there's no point in trying to get out at a poor value bet, that's the sort of opposite value bets a lot of the smart guys are taking...
Reduce your initial bet size if you think it's too much.

[ShaunWhite]

I see why you don't want to let a full trading stake run as a straight bet even if its slight value, but I don't know why there's any rapid key pressing (unless it never left the stalls).

You don't say why you want to 'bail out', if its because it started badly then frankly I'd consider having a bit extra when everyone panics and tries to 'bail out', 2miles later a poor start makes almost no difference.

[dldtaylor]

I don't think I made my self clear. A good example was a race earlier this week. It was a 5 furlong race, and the horse I had backed (to trade our in running) was left standing in the stalls. When he finally decided to run, he was about 10 lengths behind. With all the best will in the world, he was never going to be in contention (and wasn't) over such a short race, therefore I wanted to 'bail out'. It's not an issue of value as I see it.

[goat68]

I don't think I made my self clear. A good example was a race earlier this week. It was a 5 furlong race, and the horse I had backed (to trade our in running) was left standing in the stalls. When he finally decided to run, he was about 10 lengths behind. With all the best will in the world, he was never going to be in contention (and wasn't) over such a short race, therefore I wanted to 'bail out'. It's not an issue of value as I see it.

What if its odds were 1000, would you have put £1 on it? only 10 lengths behind, would you not think that was value? Would you have bailed laying at odds of 1000 ?

[ShaunWhite]

I don't think I made my self clear. A good example was a race earlier this week. It was a 5 furlong race, and the horse I had backed (to trade our in running) was left standing in the stalls. When he finally decided to run, he was about 10 lengths behind. With all the best will in the world, he was never going to be in contention (and wasn't) over such a short race, therefore I wanted to 'bail out'. It's not an issue of value as I see it.

In-running is tough enough with trying to do it on sprints but that's your call. Value is always an issue, a 'trade' is just two bets and the concern is bailing out at a poor price relative to the actual conditions. You won't necessarily see this lack of value on the results of a given race but over the weeks/months it'll impact your bottom line.

Thing is that this sort of thing happens, if you want to bet then someone else has to disagree with your view, and in the case of a clear cut failure to start that's not going to be easy or possible.

[ShaunWhite]

Just a thought @didtaylor.....it's exactly this type of thing that can give rise to decent strategies. Afterall if a situation is bad for you then why not be the one who's benefitting from that scenario instead, on the exchange we don't have to be the victim we can be the perpetrator.

So, in a sprint what's more likely at the start, a horse that fcks off like a bullet and looks like the winner after 20yards, or one that decides it doesn't fancy it. And depending on your view on that, would you be B2L or L2B ? And then how does that play out in a 3 miler?

[Kai]

Hi Everyone. I'm just getting back to grip with Bet Angel after a 2 year break. I would be grateful for a bit of advice on what I call Bailing Out. Say, for example, you've placed a Dob or Dutch just prior to the start of a race, and within the first few seconds of the race, what is the best way to get out of the trade? Up until now, I've set the Ctrl key on my keyboard to green up, and hit that. But due to the speed of price movement in-play, sometimes greening stakes aren't matched. On these occasions I just keep hitting the Ctrl key until they are. But this doesn't seem a very satisfactory method. Is there a more effective way? TIA

This is the wrong approach.

Unless u have live pics of all races you are involved in, a Bail-out button will be giving away an edge.

I would suggest you reduce stakes. Bail-out rules will be v complex and given the current demise of in-running markets, negative EV.

Repeatedly hitting the Ctrl key will kill your bank v quickly.

+1

The only thing worse than hitting these "buttons" is hitting them repeatedly, lol

[Kai]

In short, markets are split between market makers and market takers.

A bit like the split between credit seekers and credit givers on forums and social media!

But these buttons basically force you to take some very bad prices, probably better to learn to manage your exits manually.

[alexmr2]

I don't think I made my self clear. A good example was a race earlier this week. It was a 5 furlong race, and the horse I had backed (to trade our in running) was left standing in the stalls. When he finally decided to run, he was about 10 lengths behind. With all the best will in the world, he was never going to be in contention (and wasn't) over such a short race, therefore I wanted to 'bail out'. It's not an issue of value as I see it.

If the horse got stuck in the stalls and is 10 lengths behind on a 5f race then its chance of winning is extremely low so there's not much chance of bailing out I'm afraid

The market will already have factored this in by the time you realise and place the bail out/hedge bet

Inplay traders and court siders will already be willing to lay this horse at high odds before you can get your bet matched so this will no doubt put your back position close to max liability in the red which is basically the same as the bet running and losing

I'm not recommending this style of trading but if that's what you want to do I would focus on accepting the max downside risk of such an approach. On a 5f race especially it's highly likely that the horse you have backed to later lay inplay will have messed up the start never come in at all. I'd also say this strategy is -EV in general because things will happen so fast that if you are wrong you will probably lose close to max liability and if you are right you are taking the profit too soon

[Kai]

Is there a more effective way? TIA

Have you considered accepting the loss?

Losing the odd stake is part of this market, unless you can see things and react before everyone else.

Honestly worst things than losing your whole stake, like losing your entire liability (if you lay instead)

[ShaunWhite]

if its because it started badly then frankly I'd consider having a bit extra when everyone panics and tries to 'bail out',

Et viola. A poor start and 5f is still enough although granted for every rule there's an exception. I wonder who was banging the bailout button

Ripon 17:10.

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[jamesedwards]

Hitting a green-up button in-play is fraught with danger due to the Betfair one second delay on in-play horse racing markets. Bet Angel will calculate the amount and prices and place the orders to exit but by the time the bets hit the market it could have all changed significantly.