How do I swing trade from early morning prices?

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Thebest147
Posts: 93
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:01 am

I would recommend backing at the bookie best odds guarantee at 10am closest odds possible,with some volume and movement on befair, and say a top jockey is riding 2 short prices runners in the first 2 races you could second guess the bookies move as they sometimes will cut the second runner is the top jockey wins the first race,, or if there is a track and draw bias you could back or lay something that is drawn wide in a Sprint, and finally out yourself in a bookies mindset,all the die-hard punters in the bookies checking from in ever wall in the bookies shop, if most newspapers tipsters too the same horse,and the bookies cut that horse in the last few minutes before the off as a false gamble everyone in the bookies thinks someone knows something and today is the day, Mark Johnston horses lead 99% off the time so around Chester in a five furlongs Sprint drawn in stall 1,,with a bend coming up shortly after the start,and the favourite dosnt like to be up with the pace and is drawn on the outside it would be a lay,
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Brovashift wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 12:18 pm
Hi all,

Currently trudging through trading pre off order flow, which goes well at the start of the week, but generally falls apart as we head in to the weekend, and sometimes find these events (Punchestown Festival) too erratic to trade if I am feeling even a little bit tired and not completely focused.
So this has lead me to start to try and look/think a bit longer term, where I can 'look at the bigger picture' and try to trade a longer, and inevitably slower price movement. But how...?

Obviously 10mins before post time we can look back at the chart and see where price has been in the hours before, but how would I analyse a selection in order to place a L2B or B2L in the early morning markets? Does this require more analysis of form, trainer, yard, going, weather etc. for clues as to how the selection is going to be percieved by the market in the run up to the event?

Im not sure where I should be looking, so any help and knowledge very much apperciated.

TIA :mrgreen:
The oddschecker site (Market Movers) is always worth a look.

https://www.oddschecker.com/market-movers/horse-racing

Cartmel 3.45 (30.May.22)
Bfc.png
Tontos Spirit
TontosSpirit.png
Market.png

Thoughts.

No signficant NR. Will the move stall and become a L2B? (Someone, overnight has already taken the value and may want to lay it off)
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun May 29, 2022 11:11 pm
Brovashift wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 12:18 pm
Hi all,

Currently trudging through trading pre off order flow, which goes well at the start of the week, but generally falls apart as we head in to the weekend, and sometimes find these events (Punchestown Festival) too erratic to trade if I am feeling even a little bit tired and not completely focused.
So this has lead me to start to try and look/think a bit longer term, where I can 'look at the bigger picture' and try to trade a longer, and inevitably slower price movement. But how...?

Obviously 10mins before post time we can look back at the chart and see where price has been in the hours before, but how would I analyse a selection in order to place a L2B or B2L in the early morning markets? Does this require more analysis of form, trainer, yard, going, weather etc. for clues as to how the selection is going to be percieved by the market in the run up to the event?

Im not sure where I should be looking, so any help and knowledge very much apperciated.

TIA :mrgreen:
The oddschecker site (Market Movers) is always worth a look.

https://www.oddschecker.com/market-movers/horse-racing

Cartmel 3.45 (30.May.22)

Bfc.png

Tontos Spirit
TontosSpirit.png

Market.png


Thoughts.

No signficant NR. Will the move stall and become a L2B? (Someone, overnight has already taken the value and may want to lay it off)

Pretty much swung back Pre-off.

TSp.png
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