How do I swing trade from early morning prices?

[Brovashift]

Hi all,

Currently trudging through trading pre off order flow, which goes well at the start of the week, but generally falls apart as we head in to the weekend, and sometimes find these events (Punchestown Festival) too erratic to trade if I am feeling even a little bit tired and not completely focused.
So this has lead me to start to try and look/think a bit longer term, where I can 'look at the bigger picture' and try to trade a longer, and inevitably slower price movement. But how...?

Obviously 10mins before post time we can look back at the chart and see where price has been in the hours before, but how would I analyse a selection in order to place a L2B or B2L in the early morning markets? Does this require more analysis of form, trainer, yard, going, weather etc. for clues as to how the selection is going to be percieved by the market in the run up to the event?

Im not sure where I should be looking, so any help and knowledge very much apperciated.

TIA

[ShaunWhite]

Weekends are different and also by the weekend you need a break if you've done Monday to Friday. Just because you can work 247365 it doesn't mean you have to. I always saw Mon to Fri as bread and butter and the weekend is extra, if I felt like it, but a life is important too.

I'm not sure form etc would help, that's all built into the tissue price, what moves prices is new information and unless you can predict the future then you won't know what to expect.

[Brovashift]

Weekends are different and also by the weekend you need a break if you've done Monday to Friday. Just because you can work 247365 it doesn't mean you have to. I always saw Mon to Fri as bread and butter and the weekend is extra, if I felt like it, but a life is important too.

I'm not sure form etc would help, that's all built into the tissue price, what moves prices is new information and unless you can predict the future then you won't know what to expect.

Is trading the left side of the chart, so to speak, the early price movement, not the usual thing then for e.g. a retail trader? Is that more for people in the know like owner, trainers, jockeys etc?

And ye youre right about the Mon-Fri, I know I trade too much, even during a session I trade too much. I am being more selective now. I can go OK for a while, then once my concentration drifts... BANG! big loss! Problem is sometimes I dont realise my concentrate is slipping until its too late, I am working on it though.

[ANGELS15]

Hi all,

Currently trudging through trading pre off order flow, which goes well at the start of the week, but generally falls apart as we head in to the weekend, and sometimes find these events (Punchestown Festival) too erratic to trade if I am feeling even a little bit tired and not completely focused.
So this has lead me to start to try and look/think a bit longer term, where I can 'look at the bigger picture' and try to trade a longer, and inevitably slower price movement. But how...?

Obviously 10mins before post time we can look back at the chart and see where price has been in the hours before, but how would I analyse a selection in order to place a L2B or B2L in the early morning markets? Does this require more analysis of form, trainer, yard, going, weather etc. for clues as to how the selection is going to be percieved by the market in the run up to the event?

Im not sure where I should be looking, so any help and knowledge very much apperciated.

TIA

Firstly you need to be able to recognise value whether something is too short or perhaps even overpriced. In order to do that you do need some kind of analysis or indicators to guide you in making the selections. Then it would be a matter of backing or laying early with an exit point at a pre-determined no of ticks. Swing trading early prices does come with risks as non-runners can affect you one way or the other.

[Brovashift]

Hi all,

Currently trudging through trading pre off order flow, which goes well at the start of the week, but generally falls apart as we head in to the weekend, and sometimes find these events (Punchestown Festival) too erratic to trade if I am feeling even a little bit tired and not completely focused.
So this has lead me to start to try and look/think a bit longer term, where I can 'look at the bigger picture' and try to trade a longer, and inevitably slower price movement. But how...?

Obviously 10mins before post time we can look back at the chart and see where price has been in the hours before, but how would I analyse a selection in order to place a L2B or B2L in the early morning markets? Does this require more analysis of form, trainer, yard, going, weather etc. for clues as to how the selection is going to be percieved by the market in the run up to the event?

Im not sure where I should be looking, so any help and knowledge very much apperciated.

TIA

Firstly you need to be able to recognise value whether something is too short or perhaps even overpriced. In order to do that you do need some kind of analysis or indicators to guide you in making the selections. Then it would be a matter of backing or laying early with an exit point at a pre-determined no of ticks. Swing trading early prices does come with risks as non-runners can affect you one way or the other.

Thanks Angels

[ShaunWhite]

Is that more for people in the know like owner, trainers, jockeys etc?

This 'in the know' malarky is all part of the mythology of betting. So is every yard "in the know" about what every other yard is doing? You're only "in the know" if you know that other people don't know something that you don't know about.

[Euler]

That's spot on.

I've often received sure thing tips on the same race on different horses.

[Euler]

I've never traded early morning markets. Simply because there isn't much money there.

You can get a small stake on a big move, or I trade late and get a big stake on a small move.

[Derek27]

I started out trading morning prices (in the days when I was up in the morning) with small stakes but it really was a baptism of fire when I started trading before the off and getting knocked out by the volatility. I wouldn't recommend it to newbies.

[elsie107a]

Hi all I was looking into this recently and started to compare the prices I am taking and price at the off.

I found over 200 races I had backed at more favourable prices when comparing what I backed and its starting price.

This got me thinking is there away for me to just profit from this.

For e.g I backed a house at 50/1 and at the off it steemwd in and started at 22/1 an extereme eg but mention it to highlight the point

If I backed £10 at 50/1 and layed at the off at 22/1 am I making the difference in the price of am I missing something obvious here

Hope someone can put me right

Thanks

[eightbo]

If I backed £10 at 50/1 and layed at the off at 22/1 am I making the difference in the price of am I missing something obvious here
Thanks

You would be, yes. Your goal would be to make more in total from the times you get it right vs. the times you get it wrong, as of course your 50/1 selection could go up in price too.

To me it makes sense that there could well be value in doing your homework early, and if you can make a good assessment of form then perhaps you can anticipate some possible market movers.
If you dedicated yourself to this I don't see why you couldn't become skilled at it.
Keep in mind can't get loads on in early market so you'll have to decide if it's worth aiming at or not from a long-term perspective due to the limited scale potential if you care about that sort of thing.

[ShaunWhite]

If I backed £10 at 50/1 and layed at the off at 22/1 am I making the difference

Back £10 @ 50.0 : Wins = +490 : Loses -10
Lay £22.73 @ 22.0 : Wins -£477.27 Loses +£22.73

So,
If it wins +490-477.73 = £12.73
If it loses -10+22.73 = £12.73

The forumla for the PL is : ((OpeningOdds/ClosingOdds)*OpeningStake)-OpeningStake
eg (((50/22)*10)-10 = £12.73

The formula for the Closing Stake is therefore : (OpeningOdds/ClosingOdds)*OpeningStake
eg ((50/22)*10) = £22.73

Hope that helps.

[goat68]

Weekends are different and also by the weekend you need a break if you've done Monday to Friday. Just because you can work 247365 it doesn't mean you have to. I always saw Mon to Fri as bread and butter and the weekend is extra, if I felt like it, but a life is important too.

I'm not sure form etc would help, that's all built into the tissue price, what moves prices is new information and unless you can predict the future then you won't know what to expect.

Is trading the left side of the chart, so to speak, the early price movement, not the usual thing then for e.g. a retail trader? Is that more for people in the know like owner, trainers, jockeys etc?

And ye youre right about the Mon-Fri, I know I trade too much, even during a session I trade too much. I am being more selective now. I can go OK for a while, then once my concentration drifts... BANG! big loss! Problem is sometimes I dont realise my concentrate is slipping until its too late, I am working on it though.

When ever you're placing your bet you want it to be at "value", so say at 10am what is making you decide to say "back" a horse?, ie.you think in the long run the price on that selection at 10am is value, ie.the price at 10am should be lower... ? You need some info no-one has that gives you edge over everyone else... that may sound scary, but what it maybe is simply you've come up with a grand "horse model" that tells you say the horse in question at 10am is currently priced at 6.0, but your "unique"(ie.no-one else is using your exact and very unique model) says its fair price at 10am should be 5.0.

[ShaunWhite]

says its fair price at 10am should be 5.0.

That's pretty much impossible isn't it at manual trading scale? Easier (but still difficult) is to judge its fair starting price to be 5 and any other price at any time is value, or an SP hedged green. But that's also manual trading in a nutshell whether you know value or not, looking for a price that's on the move, that's on average going to towards fair value and therfore riding the move means bet 1 was a value bet. No model required, that's for quants, in manual trading order flow is king.... Discus

[goat68]

says its fair price at 10am should be 5.0.

That's pretty much impossible isn't it at manual trading scale? Easier (but still difficult) is to judge its fair starting price to be 5 and any other price at any time is value, or an SP hedged green. But that's also manual trading in a nutshell whether you know value or not, looking for a price that's on the move, that's on average going to towards fair value and therfore riding the move means bet 1 was a value bet. No model required, that's for quants, in manual trading order flow is king.... Discus

Of course...but suspecting there's more than one way to skin these... order flow at 10am probably doesn't exist