Ever had such a golden run you feel uneasy?

The sport of kings.
stueytrader
Posts: 813
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

WisdomOfCrowds wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:10 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:16 pm
WisdomOfCrowds wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:25 pm


Well done on the good run, Stuey.

Out of interest how many trades have you made during that two month period and what odds ranges are you trading in?
I don't have a specific odds range, so basically happy to use the full range (though obviously adjust staking accordingly).
In terms of number of trades, its around 700 selections in this current run. Obviously I know that is only a relatively small sample in the bigger picture, hence my initial post too. But what was interesting is my returns were far better over that 700 sample than I would ever expect from 700 selections traded.
The reason I asked was that I had a terrible time between 1st June and 31st July! :oops:

I don't have time to analyse all races run but the handicaps I did look at gave the following returns for the backer to level stakes (with 2% commission deducted) covering all horses with BSPs between 2.00 and 3.99:

Bets: 547, Win 162 (30%), Returns 485.68, Loss -61.32, -11.21%

All similar cases that I have records for show:

Bets: 13260, Win 4403 (33%), Returns 13286.53, Profit +26.53, +0.20%.

After 2% commission, we'd expect to show an overall loss of 2% so the long-term numbers are punching slightly above their weight but the June/July figures are significantly out of sync with normal expectation.

It seems as though it was a good couple of months for the layers of short-priced horses and a pretty tough time for backers. I hope these numbers are of interest.

Good luck for the future, Stuey. Cheers!
Those stats are interesing, thanks - though less likely to be directly linked to my recent success, as I don't specifically focus on favourites or near favourites exclusively (though some are favourites I lay and trade). I should have also added, a fair bit of my laying is place markets too.
stueytrader
Posts: 813
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Superkal wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:51 pm
Hey, I completely understand where you're coming from. I've done several strategies over several years and some have been successful for a short period then to amount to nothing and the edge slowly withers away.

So for example last year, I was backing the favourite on hcap hrd races more than 2m in length. I would back the favourite when the price is stable within 4 minutes to pre-off. 8 out of 10 times the price would shorten and I'd profit.. but I got greedy and increased my stake and also took it into play.

Eventually, this 'edge' stopped working. I did the same backing the 2nd favorite and again I did well in short periods then the same thing happened.

It's been a frustrating journey where you lose cofidentence even with there's some glimmer of hope in the short term.

Now, what seems to be working for me, relatively, and it's been recently over the past few weeks is to dutch the first 3 favourites in a race with more than 6 horses and there's no clear favourite. You'd still have to be more specific with the choice of race type, but yeah, this seems, simple and potentially long term strategy but I'm not getting my hopes up high just yet..
There are certainly natural fluctuations - so I'm hoping I am not simply within one of those patches. Time is a best test I suppose to see on that!
stueytrader
Posts: 813
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:19 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:00 pm
I do find that reading around you can see a lot in trading/betting about how to approach downswings in form and returns, but there's less that considers how you should approach such purple patches.
Imo ideally completely ignore both. But tbh you only truly do that once you've seen a dozen boom and bust cycles and know for certain neither are the norm. Books can tell you that but it's experience that makes you believe it enough to do it.

I was thinking about your situation and because you have some straight bets that skew things, maybe do your accounts as if you'd closed everything at sp. That's what I do and people I know who mix things up a bit. Only works pre-race but worth doing. It's surprising how your actual £ tracks that std 'sp close' figure and you have the benefit of knowing if you're ahead of it or behind, so you can expect a pull back or good patch. That's the figure that keeps me sane rather than the actual £.
The first part sounds a little like the Kipling poem I think - treating those two 'imposters' as such :)
I do take something of that approach, hence my initial posting here, rather than ordering my Ferrari just yet! I may look at those analysis types or similar yes, thanks for the idea.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

It's good to be winning again. :D

I've just had the opposite 'problem'. Dreadful first three days of the week/month where I couldn't seem to get anything right. One of those periods where it feels like the gods are against you or you've upset them. Just as well I'm atheist. :)
stueytrader
Posts: 813
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:31 pm
It's good to be winning again. :D

I've just had the opposite 'problem'. Dreadful first three days of the week/month where I couldn't seem to get anything right. One of those periods where it feels like the gods are against you or you've upset them. Just as well I'm atheist. :)
It is certainly welcome (should add since my OP the days inbetween have also been very good to me, so for now fingers crossed...)

I'm certainly no stranger to those kind of bad runs too, which can all too easily affect your approach and processes in trading. The funny thing is I think in general in trading we are aware of losing streaks and their possible effects on our efficiency, but I think much less aware how a very good run affects the whole process.

Hope things pick up for you soon Derek!
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