Ever had such a golden run you feel uneasy?

[worldplaywithangel]

Cheers again Kai, for the positive vibes too which also helps I find (though in moderation not overconfidence).

Thought I'd add a further update, if of interest.

Times since my last post on here have been somewhat more varied, but overall still positive. I did hit one patch that was a larger downswing that lasted a couple of weeks. Must admit I felt like it was going to start returning all my profits gained at one point if it continued that way. But, it didn't persist and gains started to roll back again. I did take a pause in all my trading for a day, which turned the path back to positive once again. I think that was key.

So, in summary for latest period I'd say not quite as 'golden', but not a downswing or loss of positive returns overall, and I'm still feeling very good about this year.

I'm reading your posts with interest as I can very much relate.. I have been insane last 8 months trying to master horse race trading. I'm coming home 2 AM and start reading about trading in my bet. I had a break then these past 3 weeks suddenly I just increase and increase my profits. I was waiting to blow my bank but I can sustain profits! 70 quid in 3 weeks

But I feel the same way as you, I'm just waiting for it all to be taken away from me, destroy my soul, hurt me so much I even feel it physically I just can't take another fall, as I have had several... But I take pauses and get my mind straight before I start trading again. I try shut down my brain and just apathetically trade like a robot... and it works I am getting results!

Can I ask how long have you been trading and are you able to get profits?

Thanks for your thoughts on this issue. Glad to see your comparison to the effect of progress on your views about trading and future success too.
I've been trading in different ways probably about 15 years or so - though before that I was mostly just a standard punter in betting too. I've been the most profitable in this current year, though I did have a year about 14 years ago that was possibly about as good (with many variable years in between).
This current year is still going well - though yet again, I have recently been through both downturn and upswing periods - thankfully very good upswing again to correct for a poor period of around 2 weeks. My last 2 weeks are nearly at the earlier peak levels of returns. Once again, taking breaks during a downswing has been fairly crucial I believe.
Hope it's going well for you too.

As I have only been trading nearly 1 year one thing I am both very interest in and also slightly worried about is: how have the markets change over the last 10 years? Are they becoming worse or better in terms of trading them? I see quite some people say that they have recently hit their best years which I am VERY GLAD to hear as I am worried that suddenly there will be an overflow of traders and suddenly trading just isnt really possible anymore? but apparently it seems to go in opposite direction, getting betting, which doesnt really make sense to me as more and more people become traders of the market increasing competition?

Whats your take on this, how are markets changing and whats the future for trading pre horse? And also, whats do you think the explanation is to why you are having the best year when theres coming more and more traders to the markets?

[Korattt]

Stuey,

I’m a bit late to the party on this thread & for one reason & another I’ve taken a bit of a break, should be on here a bit more regular now things have settled down, (regs on here may have an idea why), anyway..

How’s the run going?, the reason why I’m asking is have you identified an edge, (or two) & understood it, (or them) as I too, (through further blood sweat & tears), now have a better understanding on being more efficient with reading the markets & finally turned a corner, such a friggin’ shame with it being this time of year though, roll on March

[stueytrader]

As I have only been trading nearly 1 year one thing I am both very interest in and also slightly worried about is: how have the markets change over the last 10 years? Are they becoming worse or better in terms of trading them? I see quite some people say that they have recently hit their best years which I am VERY GLAD to hear as I am worried that suddenly there will be an overflow of traders and suddenly trading just isnt really possible anymore? but apparently it seems to go in opposite direction, getting betting, which doesnt really make sense to me as more and more people become traders of the market increasing competition?

Whats your take on this, how are markets changing and whats the future for trading pre horse? And also, whats do you think the explanation is to why you are having the best year when theres coming more and more traders to the markets?

Sorry for slow reply, it's been a hectic time for me (not least in trading too).

I don't have definite answers for all the issues you mention, and relative success, only what I can observe and objectively see in my returns. In terms of the wider trading being more difficult or easy to be successful - I do suppose that might be down to individual approaches and how that interacts with the markets.

The major change I made in relation to trading, was to remove some of my 'trading only' limitations that I used to have. I do let some selections run these days rather than trading out - and I'm more flexible than I used to be with that. I also emphasised certain categories of racing that I found I was doing better on - jumps racing more than short distance flat racing. It's a slow honing process I guess. I don't think markets have massively changed fundamentally overall though in behaviours.

[stueytrader]

Stuey,

I’m a bit late to the party on this thread & for one reason & another I’ve taken a bit of a break, should be on here a bit more regular now things have settled down, (regs on here may have an idea why), anyway..

How’s the run going?, the reason why I’m asking is have you identified an edge, (or two) & understood it, (or them) as I too, (through further blood sweat & tears), now have a better understanding on being more efficient with reading the markets & finally turned a corner, such a friggin’ shame with it being this time of year though, roll on March

Again, sorry for my slow replying, as above been rather distracted.

The run has been completely fine up to this (end of year) point - in fact my December results are even better than when I initially posted (November was a bit more hit and miss overall).

In terms of finding edges, I don't have one specific strategy that is universal and in isolation, though maybe a few different ones that I've maybe been able to jump between and use flexibly. I really have been taken by surprise by how good some of the runs have been for me this year - mostly because I have been doing some things that previously were less successful in the past!

I do think I've changed, more fundamentally, my general approach, as I mentioned above loosening some of my previous 'rules' and restrictions on what I do every day - that feels to me the biggest obvious change in my approaches. Whether that is really the key, I'm still not even sure to be honest! But, I'm going to try to carry on without getting ahead or presumptuous too much - that was kind of my initial point in this post, how to keep level in approach when it's going well, and not ruin anything.

Like I say, I don't believe I have any golden edge as such, just that I'm performing a lot better overall in applying a range of approaches and adapting to situations.

GL to you too.

[stueytrader]

I should probably add one other, wider, issue that I did improve on this year - my trading bank and management.

I've been using some careful money management approaches to staking sizing, relation of wider finances, and relation of staking with pricing and type of trading e.g. pre race only, inplay or straight position taking.

That has (IMO) certainly helped my progress for sure this year, by analysing my approach from that finance basis.

[stueytrader]

I just wanted to share this quote that I found reading recently, it's from some writing by Steve Ward where he quotes this:

“I have had many ups and downs in trading, but I truly can say that it is the
hard times when you learn the most about yourself. I feel that when things
are going well you tend to become slightly less focussed on the reasons why
you’re being successful. It is only when you go through the hard times that
you really become introspective and this is when you discover what makes
you a successful trader and what allows you to go forward and get through
the difficulties.”
– Lawrie Inman, trader

I thought the highlighted part was relevant to the topic and question area I started on here, so glad to see it echoed in this. Seems to suggest this is a performance assessment gap of sorts.

[Derek27]

I had a terrible run of losses earlier in the week, now all of a sudden I've turned the corner and can't seem to do anything wrong!

Don't know if it's random variation or whether I've been getting slack but I hope it continues.

[firlandsfarm]

Stuey, 'make hay while the sun shines' but also remember 'revert to mean'!

[Kai]

"Know thy self, know thy enemy. A thousand battles, a thousand victories."

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the results of a hundred battles."

"The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy."

""Every battle is won before it is ever fought.""

“He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.”

"In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity."

I like these. Ironically, from the best trading ebook on the internet : https://sites.ualberta.ca/~enoch/Readin ... Of_War.pdf

[wearthefoxhat]

Puppet.png

Bobby Axelrod - Season 5 Episode 11

[weemac]

Thought I'd found a golden goose - the chart shows the P&L from 6,000 £2 back bets with minimum odds of 9/1 over the last 9 months. The explosive start was 1,400 bets over the first 2 months where the ROI hit almost 90%. Had the massive yacht on order. But since then.......

It's now only a golden sparrow, and might well be turning into a lame duck.

[Derek27]

Thought I'd found a golden goose - the chart shows the P&L from 6,000 £2 back bets with minimum odds of 9/1 over the last 9 months. The explosive start was 1,400 bets over the first 2 months where the ROI hit almost 90%. Had the massive yacht on order. But since then.......

It's now only a golden sparrow, and might well be turning into a lame duck.

Any idea what caused that? Change in liquidity? Time of year?

[weemac]

Thought I'd found a golden goose - the chart shows the P&L from 6,000 £2 back bets with minimum odds of 9/1 over the last 9 months. The explosive start was 1,400 bets over the first 2 months where the ROI hit almost 90%. Had the massive yacht on order. But since then.......

It's now only a golden sparrow, and might well be turning into a lame duck.

Any idea what caused that? Change in liquidity? Time of year?

It's mostly jumps racing, so maybe it's seasonal. I'll know more next May! It's also recently occurred to me that the increased use of TPD might have affected it, even though they're all straight pre-race backs.

[LinusP]

Thought I'd found a golden goose - the chart shows the P&L from 6,000 £2 back bets with minimum odds of 9/1 over the last 9 months. The explosive start was 1,400 bets over the first 2 months where the ROI hit almost 90%. Had the massive yacht on order. But since then.......

It's now only a golden sparrow, and might well be turning into a lame duck.

Any idea what caused that? Change in liquidity? Time of year?

It's mostly jumps racing, so maybe it's seasonal. I'll know more next May! It's also recently occurred to me that the increased use of TPD might have affected it, even though they're all straight pre-race backs.

Are you beating SP?

[weemac]

Any idea what caused that? Change in liquidity? Time of year?

It's mostly jumps racing, so maybe it's seasonal. I'll know more next May! It's also recently occurred to me that the increased use of TPD might have affected it, even though they're all straight pre-race backs.

Are you beating SP?

They're all BFSP.