Ever had such a golden run you feel uneasy?

The sport of kings.
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stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Sorry about what might seem like a 'brag' - not meant that way at all.

But, I've experience a most recent period (approx previous 60 days, 2 months) that has been more golden than any I can remember. But, the odd thing is it has actually made me a little uneasy about my activity - that might sound a bit mad, so will try to explain.

This isn't a brag at all, as I've certainly known the other side often enough - the runs that make you want to give up. I'm no god of trading, but like to think that I'm overall able to be a consistent profitable trader these days. My results in general back that up, but I've always had some poor patches at times of course.

All this is natural, but maybe why I'm finding my current run unsettling is that I'm wondering if it will suddenly end or reverse, and I'm aware I may feel very negative if and when that happens - it's hard to be extremely successful and then suddenly find those previous earnings dripping away again (I know this from previous experience). There is also the 'overconfidence' issue that I'm trying to address. I pretty much avoid getting overconfident in staking/over-staking at all times, but areas such as getting sloppy in making selections is maybe something I've found in previous good runs.

Obviously, right now this is a good problem to have - but interested in others' experiences of responding to very good runs, which may be slightly overlooked in relation to dealing with bad runs (we know that very well).

I'm also trying to understand of course why I've had such a good recent run. I did alter a couple of aspects during this good period, so estimating that is the reason, but nothing drastic altered in my approaches in many ways.

Anyway, be glad to hear any thoughts and experiences from others.
GL with your trading all today!
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The Silk Run
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Big bank, Martingale ;)
Trader Pat
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stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:19 pm
Sorry about what might seem like a 'brag' - not meant that way at all.

But, I've experience a most recent period (approx previous 60 days, 2 months) that has been more golden than any I can remember. But, the odd thing is it has actually made me a little uneasy about my activity - that might sound a bit mad, so will try to explain.

This isn't a brag at all, as I've certainly known the other side often enough - the runs that make you want to give up. I'm no god of trading, but like to think that I'm overall able to be a consistent profitable trader these days. My results in general back that up, but I've always had some poor patches at times of course.

All this is natural, but maybe why I'm finding my current run unsettling is that I'm wondering if it will suddenly end or reverse, and I'm aware I may feel very negative if and when that happens - it's hard to be extremely successful and then suddenly find those previous earnings dripping away again (I know this from previous experience). There is also the 'overconfidence' issue that I'm trying to address. I pretty much avoid getting overconfident in staking/over-staking at all times, but areas such as getting sloppy in making selections is maybe something I've found in previous good runs.

Obviously, right now this is a good problem to have - but interested in others' experiences of responding to very good runs, which may be slightly overlooked in relation to dealing with bad runs (we know that very well).

I'm also trying to understand of course why I've had such a good recent run. I did alter a couple of aspects during this good period, so estimating that is the reason, but nothing drastic altered in my approaches in many ways.

Anyway, be glad to hear any thoughts and experiences from others.
GL with your trading all today!
Maybe you're just getting better at it?

I wouldn't overthink it too much. Just enjoy it and put it down to your own ability rather than a purple patch or luck.

If it doesnt last then there will be plenty of time to feel uneasy :)
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:19 pm
Sorry about what might seem like a 'brag' - not meant that way at all.

But, I've experience a most recent period (approx previous 60 days, 2 months) that has been more golden than any I can remember. But, the odd thing is it has actually made me a little uneasy about my activity - that might sound a bit mad, so will try to explain.

This isn't a brag at all, as I've certainly known the other side often enough - the runs that make you want to give up. I'm no god of trading, but like to think that I'm overall able to be a consistent profitable trader these days. My results in general back that up, but I've always had some poor patches at times of course.

All this is natural, but maybe why I'm finding my current run unsettling is that I'm wondering if it will suddenly end or reverse, and I'm aware I may feel very negative if and when that happens - it's hard to be extremely successful and then suddenly find those previous earnings dripping away again (I know this from previous experience). There is also the 'overconfidence' issue that I'm trying to address. I pretty much avoid getting overconfident in staking/over-staking at all times, but areas such as getting sloppy in making selections is maybe something I've found in previous good runs.

Obviously, right now this is a good problem to have - but interested in others' experiences of responding to very good runs, which may be slightly overlooked in relation to dealing with bad runs (we know that very well).

I'm also trying to understand of course why I've had such a good recent run. I did alter a couple of aspects during this good period, so estimating that is the reason, but nothing drastic altered in my approaches in many ways.

Anyway, be glad to hear any thoughts and experiences from others.
GL with your trading all today!
I wouldn’t feel uneasy… I’d just accept that it’s probably because your wins & losses can come in any random sequence & if you start to have a run of losses then you’re probably reverting to mean. 40 black outcomes in a row on a roulette isn’t Impossible, neither is 50 red. Feels unbelievable unlikely or abnormal, which is how you’re feeling about your run atm.
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

Yes, totally. Sometimes I really afraid that the balance of the Universe will take something from me for a relatively unnaturally big profit. But then I think about what opportunities I missed cause of thousands of hours spent on the exchange and near it and I think it's sort of balanced already.
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:48 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:19 pm
Sorry about what might seem like a 'brag' - not meant that way at all.

But, I've experience a most recent period (approx previous 60 days, 2 months) that has been more golden than any I can remember. But, the odd thing is it has actually made me a little uneasy about my activity - that might sound a bit mad, so will try to explain.

This isn't a brag at all, as I've certainly known the other side often enough - the runs that make you want to give up. I'm no god of trading, but like to think that I'm overall able to be a consistent profitable trader these days. My results in general back that up, but I've always had some poor patches at times of course.

All this is natural, but maybe why I'm finding my current run unsettling is that I'm wondering if it will suddenly end or reverse, and I'm aware I may feel very negative if and when that happens - it's hard to be extremely successful and then suddenly find those previous earnings dripping away again (I know this from previous experience). There is also the 'overconfidence' issue that I'm trying to address. I pretty much avoid getting overconfident in staking/over-staking at all times, but areas such as getting sloppy in making selections is maybe something I've found in previous good runs.

Obviously, right now this is a good problem to have - but interested in others' experiences of responding to very good runs, which may be slightly overlooked in relation to dealing with bad runs (we know that very well).

I'm also trying to understand of course why I've had such a good recent run. I did alter a couple of aspects during this good period, so estimating that is the reason, but nothing drastic altered in my approaches in many ways.

Anyway, be glad to hear any thoughts and experiences from others.
GL with your trading all today!
Maybe you're just getting better at it?

I wouldn't overthink it too much. Just enjoy it and put it down to your own ability rather than a purple patch or luck.

If it doesnt last then there will be plenty of time to feel uneasy :)
Yes, that would be what I'd like to believe for sure! But maybe I'm these days naturally cautious instead.
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

jamesg46 wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:21 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:19 pm
Sorry about what might seem like a 'brag' - not meant that way at all.

But, I've experience a most recent period (approx previous 60 days, 2 months) that has been more golden than any I can remember. But, the odd thing is it has actually made me a little uneasy about my activity - that might sound a bit mad, so will try to explain.

This isn't a brag at all, as I've certainly known the other side often enough - the runs that make you want to give up. I'm no god of trading, but like to think that I'm overall able to be a consistent profitable trader these days. My results in general back that up, but I've always had some poor patches at times of course.

All this is natural, but maybe why I'm finding my current run unsettling is that I'm wondering if it will suddenly end or reverse, and I'm aware I may feel very negative if and when that happens - it's hard to be extremely successful and then suddenly find those previous earnings dripping away again (I know this from previous experience). There is also the 'overconfidence' issue that I'm trying to address. I pretty much avoid getting overconfident in staking/over-staking at all times, but areas such as getting sloppy in making selections is maybe something I've found in previous good runs.

Obviously, right now this is a good problem to have - but interested in others' experiences of responding to very good runs, which may be slightly overlooked in relation to dealing with bad runs (we know that very well).

I'm also trying to understand of course why I've had such a good recent run. I did alter a couple of aspects during this good period, so estimating that is the reason, but nothing drastic altered in my approaches in many ways.

Anyway, be glad to hear any thoughts and experiences from others.
GL with your trading all today!
I wouldn’t feel uneasy… I’d just accept that it’s probably because your wins & losses can come in any random sequence & if you start to have a run of losses then you’re probably reverting to mean. 40 black outcomes in a row on a roulette isn’t Impossible, neither is 50 red. Feels unbelievable unlikely or abnormal, which is how you’re feeling about your run atm.
There are natural fluctuations I agree, though I think this is over a large enough sample now not to be just that.
sniffer66
Posts: 1666
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Uneasy no, careful yes.

Many years ago, after a lot of effort, I managed to crack online poker botting and for a few months hit £7k+ clear profit each month. What I should have done was wait it out and see if it was sustainable, banking any profit for the future. However, thinking I was made for life, I went on a spending spree. Easy enough to guess, a few weeks later the rug was pulled out from under me. Went back down to almost zero.

Lesson learnt.
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

napshnap wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:26 pm
Yes, totally. Sometimes I really afraid that the balance of the Universe will take something from me for a relatively unnaturally big profit. But then I think about what opportunities I missed cause of thousands of hours spent on the exchange and near it and I think it's sort of balanced already.
:lol: Like the thinking - you are probably right some of this is a little 'superstitious' in my thinking and Karma like I agree, feeling it will be balanced. But, like you I guess I've already 'paid' in my time spent to get fairly decent in the results.
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

sniffer66 wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:49 pm
Uneasy no, careful yes.

Many years ago, after a lot of effort, I managed to crack online poker botting and for a few months hit £7k+ clear profit each month. What I should have done was wait it out and see if it was sustainable, banking any profit for the future. However, thinking I was made for life, I went on a spending spree. Easy enough to guess, a few weeks later the rug was pulled out from under me. Went back down to almost zero.

Lesson learnt.
Good example, thanks - it's because I know how hard things can swing I suppose I feel good runs make me a little unsure too.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Always good to measure your performance by an underlying metric rather than cash. As it happens I'm having a golden spell too, but I know its just borrowed money as the 'shoulda' number is bang on normal.

I can't advise one for you as I don't know what you do, but for instance if you back first 70% of the time, and for some reason >50% of all favs shortened rather than the usual 50/50 then, you aren't a hero for being on the right side more than not. As they say, any fool can make a profit in a rising market.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

.... But well done, confidence and enthusiasm are important so that's where you'll see the lasting effect even if some does go back.
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Thanks Shaun, yes some valuable points to consider in that.

I do think the confidence is a nice side effect of the good runs, and certainly in what I do. I'm a manual type of trader with a focus on laying, and I also do not always trade which is quite a key factor in defining what I do.

So, if I feel the trade is the wrong approach then I lay instead. But, I'm well controlled - that is in staking models I apply for instance.

A lot of what I do depends on making fairly discretionary decisions, so confidence helps in a run like this I find. On poor runs you can get the 'yips' even on good selections.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:28 pm
So, if I feel the trade is the wrong approach then I lay instead. But, I'm well controlled -
Good call. A 'trade' is just two regular bets so I've you've got the skills to assess the value of each of them, there's no written reason you're forced to have both. Holding a green position at the start means you have a value bet, so lots of very successful people 'trade' smaller amounts and then don't feel the need to dump a load of cash on a 2nd near sp bet. Your one-sided 'trading' fits that approach so good for you for bucking the "mustgreen" message.
.
WisdomOfCrowds
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Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2021 2:55 pm

stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:19 pm
Sorry about what might seem like a 'brag' - not meant that way at all.

But, I've experience a most recent period (approx previous 60 days, 2 months) that has been more golden than any I can remember.
Well done on the good run, Stuey.

Out of interest how many trades have you made during that two month period and what odds ranges are you trading in?
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