ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 1:11 am
Superkal wrote: ↑Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:51 pm
I've done several strategies over several years and some have been successful for a short period then to amount to nothing and the edge slowly withers away.
How are you finding your strategies Kal? If you're using data then it sounds like you're backfitting and then getting on just before the mean revsersion. If it's just an educated guess then what makes you think they might be edges?
Thanks for your response.
I tend to look at trends and patterns generally with the top 3 fav horses in handicap races over a period of say 2 months before I execute my strategy (I know, it's more effective if you look at the whole market of horses in the race then the top 3 but thay have the biggest volumes and influence on the movement). My issue in order to forcast future movements in odds etc, I have to rely on historical data and obivously, 2 months, as you would all agree, is simply not enough. However, I find horse racing is also dependant on seasonality/climate, number of bets on back/lay, type/length of race, number of horses and whether it jumps or straight. So there's many variables to consider, even with the cost of living crisis we're going through, I find you'll see more punters potentially looking to make a quick buck to raise more funds for livings costs etc.
I'm happy to be open about my strategies and also admit that I become impatient and also lack the displine at times through frustration. I think the longer you're in this trading "game" it sometimes consumes you and the desire to be successful and be profitable becomes greater.
I started on matched betting 12 years ago via profit accumalator and made around £3k in profit. This slowly died down as betting accounts got closed.
I then moved on to trading a few years later manually on Betfair, then I learnt how to trade via bfscalper course on Bettrader. I moved to Betangel due to the extra features in professional version and the ability to automate.
Now, I've pretty much tried and test all bots on the per-race and in-play in this forum and some days they're succesful, or break even but majority of the time they're end in a loss at close of play. Albeit, they need more time, more testing, and more tweaking, as I understand they're the foundation for us to build upon, which I massively appreciate about this forum.
I'm an analyst by trade and learning SQL, so this might help me with creating my own bots with coding to some degree, I guess. But with a busy family/social life, I try my best to fit in research in the evenings after work on most days.
Currently, dutching horses 10 seconds before the go, and this is working for me but again, this is short term and haven't tested it for a longer period of time.
Two inspiring quotes that keep me going and motivate is:
Albert Einstein : “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
Albert Einstein: “You never fail until you stop trying.”
How did you manage to find success with your bot, was it through testing or looking at historical information, or both? Did you create bot yourself?