Ever had such a golden run you feel uneasy?

The sport of kings.
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ANGELS15
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sniffer66 wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:49 pm
Uneasy no, careful yes.

Many years ago, after a lot of effort, I managed to crack online poker botting and for a few months hit £7k+ clear profit each month. What I should have done was wait it out and see if it was sustainable, banking any profit for the future. However, thinking I was made for life, I went on a spending spree. Easy enough to guess, a few weeks later the rug was pulled out from under me. Went back down to almost zero.

Lesson learnt.
Around 2000 when Betfair first came out I was purely a punter betting on racing but trying to take a structured approach. I would often start with a small pot of £50 but on around 10 occasions grew it to around £500 before it went into reverse.

I decided to try and be more focussed and try and see if I could sustain my efforts. I started with £210 and 3 months later had grown the bank to £4200. I thought I'd found the key to the bookies safe. Sadly it wasn't to last. I had been following what I now know to be dubious betting strategies. A few years later I managed to grow £16 to £1700 over a month.

Maybe try reducing your stakes by 50% and see what happens, whether you are really better or it's a fluke.
sniffer66
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ANGELS15 wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:31 am
sniffer66 wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:49 pm
Uneasy no, careful yes.

Many years ago, after a lot of effort, I managed to crack online poker botting and for a few months hit £7k+ clear profit each month. What I should have done was wait it out and see if it was sustainable, banking any profit for the future. However, thinking I was made for life, I went on a spending spree. Easy enough to guess, a few weeks later the rug was pulled out from under me. Went back down to almost zero.

Lesson learnt.
Around 2000 when Betfair first came out I was purely a punter betting on racing but trying to take a structured approach. I would often start with a small pot of £50 but on around 10 occasions grew it to around £500 before it went into reverse.

I decided to try and be more focussed and try and see if I could sustain my efforts. I started with £210 and 3 months later had grown the bank to £4200. I thought I'd found the key to the bookies safe. Sadly it wasn't to last. I had been following what I now know to be dubious betting strategies. A few years later I managed to grow £16 to £1700 over a month.

Maybe try reducing your stakes by 50% and see what happens, whether you are really better or it's a fluke.
Mine was a legal\tech change, that had no relation to the strategy itself. Which was , and will always be a winner

But it just goes to show you can have the rug pulled at any time ;)
stueytrader
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 6:40 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:28 pm
So, if I feel the trade is the wrong approach then I lay instead. But, I'm well controlled -
Good call. A 'trade' is just two regular bets so I've you've got the skills to assess the value of each of them, there's no written reason you're forced to have both. Holding a green position at the start means you have a value bet, so lots of very successful people 'trade' smaller amounts and then don't feel the need to dump a load of cash on a 2nd near sp bet. Your one-sided 'trading' fits that approach so good for you for bucking the "mustgreen" message.
.
Yep, I've never been one for 'going with crowd' (life or trading :lol: ) - always felt if you just do what everyone else does, how do you get any edge in trading...?
Works for me anyway.
stueytrader
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WisdomOfCrowds wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:25 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:19 pm
Sorry about what might seem like a 'brag' - not meant that way at all.

But, I've experience a most recent period (approx previous 60 days, 2 months) that has been more golden than any I can remember.
Well done on the good run, Stuey.

Out of interest how many trades have you made during that two month period and what odds ranges are you trading in?
I don't have a specific odds range, so basically happy to use the full range (though obviously adjust staking accordingly).
In terms of number of trades, its around 700 selections in this current run. Obviously I know that is only a relatively small sample in the bigger picture, hence my initial post too. But what was interesting is my returns were far better over that 700 sample than I would ever expect from 700 selections traded.
henbet22
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Andy Beyer called it the messiah complex in his 1970's seminal book Picking Winners. Trading is a bit different in that there are so many opportunities but I think its a good phrase to sum up a long successful purple patch run of winning bets.
stueytrader
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henbet22 wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:31 pm
Andy Beyer called it the messiah complex in his 1970's seminal book Picking Winners. Trading is a bit different in that there are so many opportunities but I think its a good phrase to sum up a long successful purple patch run of winning bets.
An interesting reference, thanks. I have not read that book, though obviously know his name and reputation.

I do find that reading around you can see a lot in trading/betting about how to approach downswings in form and returns, but there's less that considers how you should approach such purple patches.
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ShaunWhite
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stueytrader wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:00 pm
I do find that reading around you can see a lot in trading/betting about how to approach downswings in form and returns, but there's less that considers how you should approach such purple patches.
Imo ideally completely ignore both. But tbh you only truly do that once you've seen a dozen boom and bust cycles and know for certain neither are the norm. Books can tell you that but it's experience that makes you believe it enough to do it.

I was thinking about your situation and because you have some straight bets that skew things, maybe do your accounts as if you'd closed everything at sp. That's what I do and people I know who mix things up a bit. Only works pre-race but worth doing. It's surprising how your actual £ tracks that std 'sp close' figure and you have the benefit of knowing if you're ahead of it or behind, so you can expect a pull back or good patch. That's the figure that keeps me sane rather than the actual £.
Superkal
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Hey, I completely understand where you're coming from. I've done several strategies over several years and some have been successful for a short period then to amount to nothing and the edge slowly withers away.

So for example last year, I was backing the favourite on hcap hrd races more than 2m in length. I would back the favourite when the price is stable within 4 minutes to pre-off. 8 out of 10 times the price would shorten and I'd profit.. but I got greedy and increased my stake and also took it into play.

Eventually, this 'edge' stopped working. I did the same backing the 2nd favorite and again I did well in short periods then the same thing happened.

It's been a frustrating journey where you lose cofidentence even with there's some glimmer of hope in the short term.

Now, what seems to be working for me, relatively, and it's been recently over the past few weeks is to dutch the first 3 favourites in a race with more than 6 horses and there's no clear favourite. You'd still have to be more specific with the choice of race type, but yeah, this seems, simple and potentially long term strategy but I'm not getting my hopes up high just yet..
WisdomOfCrowds
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stueytrader wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:16 pm
WisdomOfCrowds wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:25 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Wed Aug 03, 2022 12:19 pm
Sorry about what might seem like a 'brag' - not meant that way at all.

But, I've experience a most recent period (approx previous 60 days, 2 months) that has been more golden than any I can remember.
Well done on the good run, Stuey.

Out of interest how many trades have you made during that two month period and what odds ranges are you trading in?
I don't have a specific odds range, so basically happy to use the full range (though obviously adjust staking accordingly).
In terms of number of trades, its around 700 selections in this current run. Obviously I know that is only a relatively small sample in the bigger picture, hence my initial post too. But what was interesting is my returns were far better over that 700 sample than I would ever expect from 700 selections traded.
The reason I asked was that I had a terrible time between 1st June and 31st July! :oops:

I don't have time to analyse all races run but the handicaps I did look at gave the following returns for the backer to level stakes (with 2% commission deducted) covering all horses with BSPs between 2.00 and 3.99:

Bets: 547, Win 162 (30%), Returns 485.68, Loss -61.32, -11.21%

All similar cases that I have records for show:

Bets: 13260, Win 4403 (33%), Returns 13286.53, Profit +26.53, +0.20%.

After 2% commission, we'd expect to show an overall loss of 2% so the long-term numbers are punching slightly above their weight but the June/July figures are significantly out of sync with normal expectation.

It seems as though it was a good couple of months for the layers of short-priced horses and a pretty tough time for backers. I hope these numbers are of interest.

Good luck for the future, Stuey. Cheers!
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wearthefoxhat
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henbet22 wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:31 pm
Andy Beyer called it the messiah complex in his 1970's seminal book Picking Winners. Trading is a bit different in that there are so many opportunities but I think its a good phrase to sum up a long successful purple patch run of winning bets.
I was trying to remember what is was called, good shout.

I think the trick is you have to get it to a stage where the whole process become a little mundane and boring at times. The euphoria will dissipate after a while and be replaced by a routine of weekly/fortnighty withdrawal of profits....rinse repeat....yawn, withdraw, rinse repeat...etc..
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ShaunWhite
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Superkal wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:51 pm
I've done several strategies over several years and some have been successful for a short period then to amount to nothing and the edge slowly withers away.
How are you finding your strategies Kal? If you're using data then it sounds like you're backfitting and then getting on just before the mean revsersion. If it's just an educated guess then what makes you think they might be edges?
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ShaunWhite
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WisdomOfCrowds wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:10 pm
It seems as though it was a good couple of months for the layers of short-priced horses and a pretty tough time for backers. I hope these numbers are of interest.
BSP is known to be spot-on over a large sample, it's what people who don't hedge use as a benchmark but it obvioulsy has short term fluctuations as you have seen. If anything if I saw a month or two where BSP was over or under performing I'd oppose it rather than follow it, but I'd actually do neither because BSP is a 0EV bet long term. Unless you split your data randomly into one set you look in, and one set you test in, then you'll always be able to find something but it will be backfitted and no use. Never look in you entire set of data for edges.

Generally though you won't find anything looking for a system that uses SP bets, there's just too many people using sophisticated modelling who ensure it stays where it should be.
Superkal
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Aug 05, 2022 1:11 am
Superkal wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:51 pm
I've done several strategies over several years and some have been successful for a short period then to amount to nothing and the edge slowly withers away.
How are you finding your strategies Kal? If you're using data then it sounds like you're backfitting and then getting on just before the mean revsersion. If it's just an educated guess then what makes you think they might be edges?
Thanks for your response.

I tend to look at trends and patterns generally with the top 3 fav horses in handicap races over a period of say 2 months before I execute my strategy (I know, it's more effective if you look at the whole market of horses in the race then the top 3 but thay have the biggest volumes and influence on the movement). My issue in order to forcast future movements in odds etc, I have to rely on historical data and obivously, 2 months, as you would all agree, is simply not enough. However, I find horse racing is also dependant on seasonality/climate, number of bets on back/lay, type/length of race, number of horses and whether it jumps or straight. So there's many variables to consider, even with the cost of living crisis we're going through, I find you'll see more punters potentially looking to make a quick buck to raise more funds for livings costs etc.

I'm happy to be open about my strategies and also admit that I become impatient and also lack the displine at times through frustration. I think the longer you're in this trading "game" it sometimes consumes you and the desire to be successful and be profitable becomes greater.

I started on matched betting 12 years ago via profit accumalator and made around £3k in profit. This slowly died down as betting accounts got closed.

I then moved on to trading a few years later manually on Betfair, then I learnt how to trade via bfscalper course on Bettrader. I moved to Betangel due to the extra features in professional version and the ability to automate.

Now, I've pretty much tried and test all bots on the per-race and in-play in this forum and some days they're succesful, or break even but majority of the time they're end in a loss at close of play. Albeit, they need more time, more testing, and more tweaking, as I understand they're the foundation for us to build upon, which I massively appreciate about this forum.

I'm an analyst by trade and learning SQL, so this might help me with creating my own bots with coding to some degree, I guess. But with a busy family/social life, I try my best to fit in research in the evenings after work on most days.

Currently, dutching horses 10 seconds before the go, and this is working for me but again, this is short term and haven't tested it for a longer period of time.

Two inspiring quotes that keep me going and motivate is:

Albert Einstein : “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

Albert Einstein: “You never fail until you stop trying.”

How did you manage to find success with your bot, was it through testing or looking at historical information, or both? Did you create bot yourself?
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ShaunWhite
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Superkal wrote:
Fri Aug 05, 2022 11:03 am
How did you manage to find success with your bot, was it through testing or looking at historical information, or both? Did you create bot yourself?
I've PMed you because everyone must be bored silly with my 'story' by now. .
stueytrader
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Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 11:24 pm
henbet22 wrote:
Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:31 pm
Andy Beyer called it the messiah complex in his 1970's seminal book Picking Winners. Trading is a bit different in that there are so many opportunities but I think its a good phrase to sum up a long successful purple patch run of winning bets.
I was trying to remember what is was called, good shout.

I think the trick is you have to get it to a stage where the whole process become a little mundane and boring at times. The euphoria will dissipate after a while and be replaced by a routine of weekly/fortnighty withdrawal of profits....rinse repeat....yawn, withdraw, rinse repeat...etc..
Yes, I have considered that way of viewing my approaches - essentially a just 'rinse and repeat' kind of view as you suggest.
That is probably correct, but I also suspect more difficult to actually achieve than to say (at least for me). There is a deeper issue that processes may be affected by the level of (in this case positive) success or gains during a run of selections. That's most essentially what I'm trying to avoid - implicitly altering my selection process in some way.
I most likely will not know whether I've achieved that until a few more months have passed...
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