Hi folks,
I've seen a trader on YouTube continuously talk about a strategy for value betting and getting decent prices on the horses early morning for value bets (placing at bet connect).
They say the early morning is a good time to get value prices, but I don't know how this makes sense. Because horses drift? Is there something I'm missing? Is there a way to know if a horse is unlikely to drift?
Any advice would be appreciated!
Early morning prices?
Betfair is an exchange that operates at approximately 100%, therefore if (at least) one horse is drifting, then (at least) one horse must be shortening.Georget79 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 8:28 pmHi folks,
I've seen a trader on YouTube continuously talk about a strategy for value betting and getting decent prices on the horses early morning for value bets (placing at bet connect).
They say the early morning is a good time to get value prices, but I don't know how this makes sense. Because horses drift? Is there something I'm missing? Is there a way to know if a horse is unlikely to drift?
Any advice would be appreciated!
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burntheory
- Posts: 58
- Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:49 am
It probably depends upon what is considered to be early. I've been gathering data from around 7:30am for the last 2.5 years. On average, best back prices available produce an overround book of 107.42% and best lays are overbroke to the amount of 93.03%. That's a total spread of 14.39%.
Shorter priced runners will tend to be more 'accurate', but there's still a lot of slack in the markets at that early hour.
Other data shows that, on average, only around 2% of total liquidity is in the UK horse racing markets around that time and it's not much better by 11am, where it's around 3%.
And do you think it's possible to spot value on favourites that early in the morning with a certain degree of probability that the price won't drift?burntheory wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:24 amIt probably depends upon what is considered to be early. I've been gathering data from around 7:30am for the last 2.5 years. On average, best back prices available produce an overround book of 107.42% and best lays are overbroke to the amount of 93.03%. That's a total spread of 14.39%.
Shorter priced runners will tend to be more 'accurate', but there's still a lot of slack in the markets at that early hour.
Other data shows that, on average, only around 2% of total liquidity is in the UK horse racing markets around that time and it's not much better by 11am, where it's around 3%.
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burntheory
- Posts: 58
- Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:49 am
I've no idea, but that's not why I posted. I was responding to Anbell's post, where it was said the markets are close to 100% and, therefore, any movements in or out would be mirrored on the other side of the 'book'. The more mature the market becomes, the more valid Anbell's comment becomes.Georget79 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:24 amAnd do you think it's possible to spot value on favourites that early in the morning with a certain degree of probability that the price won't drift?burntheory wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:24 amIt probably depends upon what is considered to be early. I've been gathering data from around 7:30am for the last 2.5 years. On average, best back prices available produce an overround book of 107.42% and best lays are overbroke to the amount of 93.03%. That's a total spread of 14.39%.
Shorter priced runners will tend to be more 'accurate', but there's still a lot of slack in the markets at that early hour.
Other data shows that, on average, only around 2% of total liquidity is in the UK horse racing markets around that time and it's not much better by 11am, where it's around 3%.
But the OP was asking about early markets, where evidence suggests otherwise, at least relatively, and how loose the term "approximately 100%" is interpreted. In the early markets, there's more slack to potentially absorb any such mirroring.
Personally, I've got zero interest in whether it's possible to spot value on favourites in the early morning markets.
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2323
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Probably a porridge voucher from Monopoly. Whenever I win a food prize it's almost always bloody porridge. This time I lucked out with a voucher for 6 nugs which I duly used today as just about to run out of date.
There is a line of thinking that goes something like this:Georget79 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:24 amAnd do you think it's possible to spot value on favourites that early in the morning with a certain degree of probability that the price won't drift?burntheory wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 8:24 amIt probably depends upon what is considered to be early. I've been gathering data from around 7:30am for the last 2.5 years. On average, best back prices available produce an overround book of 107.42% and best lays are overbroke to the amount of 93.03%. That's a total spread of 14.39%.
Shorter priced runners will tend to be more 'accurate', but there's still a lot of slack in the markets at that early hour.
Other data shows that, on average, only around 2% of total liquidity is in the UK horse racing markets around that time and it's not much better by 11am, where it's around 3%.
1. BSP is very efficient
2. It's difficult to beat an efficient market. Therefore
3. You want to bet in the morning because that is far away from racetime/BSP
Yes, it's possible to spot value on the favourite in the morning, but if you have to ask, you've got a lot of work to do before you can do it.
Just messing with you, I'm blessed not to have KFC in my area
But get some Greek yoghurt in that fridge 
Apologies to OP for derailing the thread slightly