I don't have much experience of in play movements, buy it seems like they were wild in the final stages of the past fews days of racing. I accept that a lot of thos will be 'courtsiders' sniping etc, but I think he was messing around there too.
I missed the first couple hours of today's racing, but 3.15pm seems to be when he appeared. Similar to Thursday. Last 2 days I haven't bothered following the market. He just seemed too big and influential, normal logic seemed to take a step back. Especially on the trend markets. He's still messing around at Wolverhampton I think
Big player, market maker?
If he/she was “too big & influential” why would normal logic suggest to step back? Logic to me would suggest to step in front.Crumpets wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 6:50 pmI don't have much experience of in play movements, buy it seems like they were wild in the final stages of the past fews days of racing. I accept that a lot of thos will be 'courtsiders' sniping etc, but I think he was messing around there too.
I missed the first couple hours of today's racing, but 3.15pm seems to be when he appeared. Similar to Thursday. Last 2 days I haven't bothered following the market. He just seemed too big and influential, normal logic seemed to take a step back. Especially on the trend markets. He's still messing around at Wolverhampton I think
You’ve seen how this or those people have behaved for a period of time so you should be able to anticipate how the market will respond, giving you a chance to exploit it.
You can step in front at times, but he'll literally be in several places at once. Often undermining his own positions. So sometimes, he'll back the 1st, 2nd, 4th fave at once. This might not be so significant in competitive races, but he 'll do it in non competitive ones. Backing 70% + of the book at once!
I would understand this strategy if he was for example, taking it in turns to blast the price down from the top of a range on a 2 horser; simply alternating between the 2. But he's crazy.
In thin markets, he is literally smothering himself.
I can see where he enters, and roughly predict which horses and which direction, but his behaviour afterwards is so unpredictable. Sometimes he'll place more orders behind his position if the price threatens to pings back. But he'll happily let these new ones match, then blast it in further. Money means nothing to him
My major problem is he'll let positions move badly against him, near suicidal ones. But then drag it kicking and screaming back in his favour. But other positions he'll just seemingly forget about it, and he doesn't come back to rescue it
I wish there was a discernable reason why he rescues some positions and not others, but it appears totally random.
Yesterday i saw that he switched sides a couple of times too.
He seems way too powerful to follow normal procedure, but whether you score a profit or not seems anchored to the whims of a numpty. Knowledgeable punters probably love him
I would understand this strategy if he was for example, taking it in turns to blast the price down from the top of a range on a 2 horser; simply alternating between the 2. But he's crazy.
In thin markets, he is literally smothering himself.
I can see where he enters, and roughly predict which horses and which direction, but his behaviour afterwards is so unpredictable. Sometimes he'll place more orders behind his position if the price threatens to pings back. But he'll happily let these new ones match, then blast it in further. Money means nothing to him
My major problem is he'll let positions move badly against him, near suicidal ones. But then drag it kicking and screaming back in his favour. But other positions he'll just seemingly forget about it, and he doesn't come back to rescue it
I wish there was a discernable reason why he rescues some positions and not others, but it appears totally random.Yesterday i saw that he switched sides a couple of times too.
He seems way too powerful to follow normal procedure, but whether you score a profit or not seems anchored to the whims of a numpty. Knowledgeable punters probably love him
Are people finding this jumps season any more unpredictable than usual??
I only have 17 months of experience, but i'm not sure i can remember this level of 'madness' in the past. It feels to me as if the markets changed in November, and with each month that passes, things just get that little bit more erratic. I understand that the flats and jumps trade differently for a number of reasons, but the past few months have been mental.
Whenever i engage my brain, i get things wrong. It feels like the market is just behaving so wildly....I've finally began to turn my brain off when i trade, but just wondering how other people have found these past few months. Is this normal for jumps??
I only have 17 months of experience, but i'm not sure i can remember this level of 'madness' in the past. It feels to me as if the markets changed in November, and with each month that passes, things just get that little bit more erratic. I understand that the flats and jumps trade differently for a number of reasons, but the past few months have been mental.
Whenever i engage my brain, i get things wrong. It feels like the market is just behaving so wildly....I've finally began to turn my brain off when i trade, but just wondering how other people have found these past few months. Is this normal for jumps??
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Are you talking pre race? If so then what difference do you think you see? I don't see any that are strictly down to the event being over obstances. Lots of diffeneces between races with different volume or liquidity, class, or how exposed the horses are, and how close together the races are with winter being less busy etc. But distance and obstances have very little bearing on how punters behave as far as I can see. If you obscure the race details I doubt very much if you could tell which were HN races.
I think I read through that 'Mad Bomber' thread about a year ago. Always wonder who has that money to burn...
Always would have thought that type of activity would appear in clusters; not 7 days a week, for months!!
Pre off, Shaun
I guess fewer runners, more unpredictability with jumps/ground, shorter breaks between races, and less competitive fields are what i think would affect market behaviour. Again I have only my limited experience to go off of, so I may be well off the mark.
It just seems that prices are more susceptible to individual players during this recent jumps season...almost as if there is a clearer idea of price/value during the flats. So if somebody moved a price too far in the summer, the move may be arrested as it became too good value. Again, this erratic activity may have nothing to do with the seasons; the onset from November-ish could just be coincidence. I accept that quality of race can greatly affect these things, but I've been surprised that it's not just the AW stuff that seems vulnerable.
Just wondering if people think individual movers (mad bombers) have less influence over price moves during the flats.
Always would have thought that type of activity would appear in clusters; not 7 days a week, for months!!
Pre off, Shaun
I guess fewer runners, more unpredictability with jumps/ground, shorter breaks between races, and less competitive fields are what i think would affect market behaviour. Again I have only my limited experience to go off of, so I may be well off the mark.
It just seems that prices are more susceptible to individual players during this recent jumps season...almost as if there is a clearer idea of price/value during the flats. So if somebody moved a price too far in the summer, the move may be arrested as it became too good value. Again, this erratic activity may have nothing to do with the seasons; the onset from November-ish could just be coincidence. I accept that quality of race can greatly affect these things, but I've been surprised that it's not just the AW stuff that seems vulnerable.
Just wondering if people think individual movers (mad bombers) have less influence over price moves during the flats.