Horse-Race Musings

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wearthefoxhat
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Rather than clog up the todays racing thread, thought I'd keep the musings seperate.

Having explored ratings on and off over the years, they are essentially just a guide and generally a lot does depends upon the data that's used to create them. I wanted to get to the stage that I can have some confidence that they can visually highlight selections that require further investigation.

I have posted up a couple of examples in the todays horse racing thread (a few days ago). Here's another one for today.

Uttox12.48R.png

No clear rated, but there was an indication that the conditions for Hidden Beauty didn't suit as well as it did for the Top Rated, Kateira. The result proved this nicely. One other take from the race was 2nd rated Minniemum. It looked value at early prices, (ended up 3rd at 12/1). The other short-listed danger (in amber) Ilovethenightlife, finished 5th. Also the 2nd @ 12/1 Fay Ce Que Voudras was up there as a danger, but not short-listed.

I traded Hidden Beauty in running as a L2B.

The question of value is forever an important one. Using the final rating converted to a 100% book, shows the value types clearly.

Uttx12.48V.png

One other observation, is that the Betfair 3TBP market's liquidity, matches the 4TBP (extra places) very closely.

Also, the ratings show up well on Handicap races too.
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wearthefoxhat
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Here's a Handicap Hurdle in the Exeter 1.50 (last one for now)

Exet1.50R.png
Exet1.50V.png

The first impression was interesting as there was clear top-rated qualifier, but a short-list of 6. This indicated a close race.

The value index was a tight one, and usually any runner 4/1+ clear rated I'd be happy with. The outcome was the ole 1-2, so that was good to see..

I didn't get involved with this race, but 5.Great Heart 'Jac would have been an easy L2B runner. Also, 9.Mini Yeats was not short-listed and not considered a danger. The bottom rated was 150/1.

Another way forward could be to straight lay all those up 11.00, not short-listed or dangers, and stake according to the maria lay staking plan.
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wearthefoxhat
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Here's an example of a race today that doesn't show any stand out qualifer(s) and that the market makers have got it about right. The final rating on the sheet does not take into account any live betting info or betting forecast info, so it's interesting that it mirrors the early market, albeit with no value backs/lays.

Muss 12.50C.png

The examples previously shown, using the same input data/algo, demonstrate the outliers that the market under/over estimates and in turn offers value opportunities.
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smitdog
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Very Interesting and thanks so much for sharing.

I am fiddling and fumbling around with my own Ratings points for Aust Racing and was wondering if you would be willing to share how you convert your Final Rating into a Tissue Price ie Final Rating into a 100% Book. I was looking at your 13.50 Exeter Race but couldn't work out how to turn those ratings for that race into a tissue price.

Thanks for your help but also respect if you do not want to share.

Cheers
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napshnap
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smitdog wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 11:05 am
Very Interesting and thanks so much for sharing.

I am fiddling and fumbling around with my own Ratings points for Aust Racing and was wondering if you would be willing to share how you convert your Final Rating into a Tissue Price ie Final Rating into a 100% Book. I was looking at your 13.50 Exeter Race but couldn't work out how to turn those ratings for that race into a tissue price.

Thanks for your help but also respect if you do not want to share.

Cheers
If Fox doesnt mind, viewtopic.php?p=275183#p275183.
And this thread might be interesting viewtopic.php?f=5&t=24907
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wearthefoxhat
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napshnap wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 6:16 am
smitdog wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 11:05 am
Very Interesting and thanks so much for sharing.

I am fiddling and fumbling around with my own Ratings points for Aust Racing and was wondering if you would be willing to share how you convert your Final Rating into a Tissue Price ie Final Rating into a 100% Book. I was looking at your 13.50 Exeter Race but couldn't work out how to turn those ratings for that race into a tissue price.

Thanks for your help but also respect if you do not want to share.

Cheers
If Fox doesnt mind, viewtopic.php?p=275183#p275183.
And this thread might be interesting viewtopic.php?f=5&t=24907
That takes me back a little.

Here's my current thinking.


Overview.png

Once you've got your final rating, then set a column alongside the rating and use the formulae highlighted and copy it down. Make sure your total the final rating at the bottom. The A2 cell is where you can add an overround per runner. (1.5% per runner as a guide)

There are other things that can be added. Maybe take into account the shape of the live market for adjustments. I prefer a clean calculation and decide from there.

Invariably, most Top Rated favourites are poor value. but now and again, a Top-Rated one isn't a favourite and represents a value selection.
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smitdog
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Fantastic - Thanks so much for your help and sharing.

Much appreciated
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wearthefoxhat
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smitdog wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 9:47 am
Fantastic - Thanks so much for your help and sharing.

Much appreciated
Good luck with venture.
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wearthefoxhat
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Interested to see how the "expected favourite" runs in this competitive race.

One bookie is going 3/1 compared to 9/4, looks as though they've picked up on something too.

Taunt 3.20.png
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wearthefoxhat
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Quick update, seems to be how the pre-market sees it as well.


MGraceGraph.png
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wearthefoxhat
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Has it only got one leg?

oneleg.png
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wearthefoxhat
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No, it had four legs! Still a fair pre-race L2B trade from the early morning prices.

3,20R.png
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wearthefoxhat
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Thought I'd mention the wholesale gamble in the lucky last at 8.20 Wolverhampton. (Brains)
Clearly some inside knowledge behind it as there appears nothing shown recently to suggest a big run.

MM.png

Obviously no value, but maybe creates value elsewhere...

8.20Card.png

Best 6 rated (removing the redzone runners) indicates value for the Top 2 rated.

Best 6 rated.png
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wearthefoxhat
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Winner for Value Town! Betfair SP @ 9.02

ValueWin.png
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