Is there a 'point of no return' price in play?

[JCJ89]

I've been practising trading for a year now, with only occasional attempts at going live (for very small amounts).

Lately, in practise mode, I've been laying the favourite in-play if it's not appearing to run well. E.g. let's say his starting price is 4.2 in a 2m4f. Just over half way through the race he's near the back, about 8 lengths off the leader. His price has climbed to 10 and I'm growing confident he won't win. We're then approaching the last few fences and his price is now at 26, so I lay him for 20 and my liability is £500.

He makes a late charge and the price goes all over the shop and shoots back down to something ridiculous like 4.2 again and I start having kittens looking at my liability, even though through watching race I'm sure he won't win.

Is there a price where one can be confident that if a horse hits it (say 30, 40, 50) that it has virtually has zero chance of winning? Hence why my thread title calls it the 'point of no return'. I've tried the above with other horses, like the fifth favourite, and the same thing tends to happen.

[Euler]

InPlay prices are pretty efficient so something at 50's still has a 2% chance of winning a race.

When you looking at an horse race, horses are produced for the win about 3f out on a flat race and a few fences out over jumps.

So that's the point at which prices will collapse if the horse responds to the whip. That's the thing to look for.

if the horse fails to respond, then it's race is over at that point.

[Derek27]

I've been practising trading for a year now, with only occasional attempts at going live (for very small amounts).

Lately, in practise mode, I've been laying the favourite in-play if it's not appearing to run well. E.g. let's say his starting price is 4.2 in a 2m4f. Just over half way through the race he's near the back, about 8 lengths off the leader. His price has climbed to 10 and I'm growing confident he won't win. We're then approaching the last few fences and his price is now at 26, so I lay him for 20 and my liability is £500.

He makes a late charge and the price goes all over the shop and shoots back down to something ridiculous like 4.2 again and I start having kittens looking at my liability, even though through watching race I'm sure he won't win.

Is there a price where one can be confident that if a horse hits it (say 30, 40, 50) that it has virtually has zero chance of winning? Hence why my thread title calls it the 'point of no return'. I've tried the above with other horses, like the fifth favourite, and the same thing tends to happen.

Betting is all about finding value. Trying to lay horses simply because they're unlikely to win is a recipe for disaster because their chances are reflected in the price. In the above scenario, the horse only has to win one time in 25 and you'll break even. Risking large amounts to win little has limited profit potential even for experienced traders. It's certainly not a good way to start trading, nor is any strategy that leaves you having kittens.

Why not try the other end of the stick, trying to catch big-price horses that still have a chance or lay odds-on shots? I haven't dabbled in in-play horse racing for about 8 years but you often get horses written off too quickly and hit big prices when they're not out of it or horses that make a bold move 2 out and hit odds on when they're not clear of their rivals.

It's also worth learning about the courses and their idiosyncrasies. At Newmarket, for example, the penultimate furlong runs downhill into a dip which catches out and unbalances a lot of big long-striding horses but the final furlong rise to the finish more than compensates them. I've seen a few big IP-price winners there including a 1000.

[JCJ89]

I've been practising trading for a year now, with only occasional attempts at going live (for very small amounts).

Lately, in practise mode, I've been laying the favourite in-play if it's not appearing to run well. E.g. let's say his starting price is 4.2 in a 2m4f. Just over half way through the race he's near the back, about 8 lengths off the leader. His price has climbed to 10 and I'm growing confident he won't win. We're then approaching the last few fences and his price is now at 26, so I lay him for 20 and my liability is £500.

He makes a late charge and the price goes all over the shop and shoots back down to something ridiculous like 4.2 again and I start having kittens looking at my liability, even though through watching race I'm sure he won't win.

Is there a price where one can be confident that if a horse hits it (say 30, 40, 50) that it has virtually has zero chance of winning? Hence why my thread title calls it the 'point of no return'. I've tried the above with other horses, like the fifth favourite, and the same thing tends to happen.

Betting is all about finding value. Trying to lay horses simply because they're unlikely to win is a recipe for disaster because their chances are reflected in the price. In the above scenario, the horse only has to win one time in 25 and you'll break even. Risking large amounts to win little has limited profit potential even for experienced traders. It's certainly not a good way to start trading, nor is any strategy that leaves you having kittens.

Why not try the other end of the stick, trying to catch big-price horses that still have a chance or lay odds-on shots? I haven't dabbled in in-play horse racing for about 8 years but you often get horses written off too quickly and hit big prices when they're not out of it or horses that make a bold move 2 out and hit odds on when they're not clear of their rivals.

It's also worth learning about the courses and their idiosyncrasies. At Newmarket, for example, the penultimate furlong runs downhill into a dip which catches out and unbalances a lot of big long-striding horses but the final furlong rise to the finish more than compensates them. I've seen a few big IP-price winners there including a 1000.

It's why I have been trying to spot trends. For example, I only practise in races with seven or more runners. In these races, I've been looking at the odds of the fifth favourite (where its price doesn't go above 20/1). In the 1,620 races researched over 10 weeks, it won outright 127 times (roughly 7.8%). The average SP was 12.5, which means, with my £26 stakes, the liability was around £299.

However, if it ran well, I had a cut-off point of £175, meaning the price got down to 1.75. When the fifth place horse got down that low, he more often than not won the race. He reached 1.75 157 times, meaning a total loss of £27,475.

But with the 1,474 'successes' at £24.59, it led to a profit of £8,770. I haven't tried this live but may do for one week at a tenth of the value of the stakes noted above (i.e. £2.60 lays, £17.50 limits). I have the savings to do it fortunately.

Risky but the stats give me confidence. Would you deem this to be 'value'?

[Derek27]

I've been practising trading for a year now, with only occasional attempts at going live (for very small amounts).

Lately, in practise mode, I've been laying the favourite in-play if it's not appearing to run well. E.g. let's say his starting price is 4.2 in a 2m4f. Just over half way through the race he's near the back, about 8 lengths off the leader. His price has climbed to 10 and I'm growing confident he won't win. We're then approaching the last few fences and his price is now at 26, so I lay him for 20 and my liability is £500.

He makes a late charge and the price goes all over the shop and shoots back down to something ridiculous like 4.2 again and I start having kittens looking at my liability, even though through watching race I'm sure he won't win.

Is there a price where one can be confident that if a horse hits it (say 30, 40, 50) that it has virtually has zero chance of winning? Hence why my thread title calls it the 'point of no return'. I've tried the above with other horses, like the fifth favourite, and the same thing tends to happen.

Betting is all about finding value. Trying to lay horses simply because they're unlikely to win is a recipe for disaster because their chances are reflected in the price. In the above scenario, the horse only has to win one time in 25 and you'll break even. Risking large amounts to win little has limited profit potential even for experienced traders. It's certainly not a good way to start trading, nor is any strategy that leaves you having kittens.

Why not try the other end of the stick, trying to catch big-price horses that still have a chance or lay odds-on shots? I haven't dabbled in in-play horse racing for about 8 years but you often get horses written off too quickly and hit big prices when they're not out of it or horses that make a bold move 2 out and hit odds on when they're not clear of their rivals.

It's also worth learning about the courses and their idiosyncrasies. At Newmarket, for example, the penultimate furlong runs downhill into a dip which catches out and unbalances a lot of big long-striding horses but the final furlong rise to the finish more than compensates them. I've seen a few big IP-price winners there including a 1000.

It's why I have been trying to spot trends. For example, I only practise in races with seven or more runners. In these races, I've been looking at the odds of the fifth favourite (where its price doesn't go above 20/1). In the 1,620 races researched over 10 weeks, it won outright 127 times (roughly 7.8%). The average SP was 12.5, which means, with my £26 stakes, the liability was around £299.

However, if it ran well, I had a cut-off point of £175, meaning the price got down to 1.75. When the fifth place horse got down that low, he more often than not won the race. He reached 1.75 157 times, meaning a total loss of £27,475.

But with the 1,474 'successes' at £24.59, it led to a profit of £8,770. I haven't tried this live but may do for one week at a tenth of the value of the stakes noted above (i.e. £2.60 lays, £17.50 limits). I have the savings to do it fortunately.

Risky but the stats give me confidence. Would you deem this to be 'value'?

Practice mode is for testing software or manually testing features. You cannot accurately determine profit and loss using practice mode. There will be orders you place that would be taken in real mode but nobody took them in practice mode because they don't really exist and can't be seen on the exchange. This will result in both, profits and losses not registering.

But results speak for themselves. If you make a consistent profit over a fair period of time (in real mode) then you must be taking value.

[ShaunWhite]

But results speak for themselves. If you make a consistent profit over a fair period of time

The OP needs to think about what a 'fair period' is. It's a lot less looking at even money horses than those at 20/1.

Just picking price points doesn't give you any assurance about value and especially so if you're taking prices rather than offering. Euler has already explained that the market prices are very efficient and they have to be taking in context of what's actually happening.

Price takers need to think about who's offering the prices they're taking. Taking prices points to a punters' mentality and trading is much more about being on the other side of the counter and being the one the punters lose money to.

[JCJ89]

But results speak for themselves. If you make a consistent profit over a fair period of time

The OP needs to think about what a 'fair period' is. It's a lot less looking at even money horses than those at 20/1.

Just picking price points doesn't give you any assurance about value and especially so if you're taking prices rather than offering. Euler has already explained that the market prices are very efficient and they have to be taking in context of what's actually happening.

Price takers need to think about who's offering the prices they're taking. Taking prices points to a punters' mentality and trading is much more about being on the other side of the counter and being the one the punters lose money to.

How do you mean fair period? I've been trying to look at it more with a trend mindset, i.e. what "doesn't" happen that often, and when it does, how I can soften the blow, hence my second post on this thread.

With odds-on or favourites in general, they do win approx 1/3 of the time, but in the times they do not win, how often does their price hit a low enough point to not wipe me out? Might be worth checking out.

[ShaunWhite]

]
How do you mean fair period? I've been trying to look at it more with a trend mindset, i.e. what "doesn't" happen that often, and when it does, how I can soften the blow, hence my second post on this thread.

With odds-on or favourites in general, they do win approx 1/3 of the time, but in the times they do not win, how often does their price hit a low enough point to not wipe me out? Might be worth checking out.

Fair period relates to the number of races to consider. The sample size. Eg looking at 500/1 horses would need many thousands for the averages to pan out but even money horses might only need a few hundred

Odds on horses don't win 1/3 of the time. A horse at evens has a 50% chance of winning at that moment, and if it drifts to 3.0 it has a 33% chance at that moment. A horse at 1.75 has a 57.1% chance but that doesn't tell you what that might be later. What you need to do is back at 1.75 when it has a better than 57% chance or back at 1.8 when the prevailing price is 1.75.

[jamesedwards]

Be careful playing with 'point of no return' - there's probably an average of 2 or 3 1000/1 in-play winners across all Betfair racing per week. Betting in play is all about finding value so if you are laying 100/1 shots that win every 200 times you are on to a winner, but laying 1000/1 shots that win 1 in every 500 times is obviously a route to the poor-house.

It's worth knowing that practise mode won't give you a completely fair reflection of performance because it will match winning trades in full even if there is only a partial match available. You are best trialling performance in real mode using the minimum £1 stakes if you can afford the risk.

[Kai]

Be careful playing with 'point of no return'

Yep, I'd go one step further with that warning.

Steer clear of this strategy OP, or ironically you could very well be practicing just how to blow your bank.

Probably some value on the other side instead, but be warned again, then you'll be deprived of that dopamine hit every race!

[Kai]

Might as well make a small meme out of it, since the issue is big and serious enough!