I was wondering if anyone has a rough calculation for how much impact a bet will have on the BSP.
Given say a total match market of £200,000, how much impact would a £2,500 SP bet have on say a horse that has had £10,000 currently matched on it.
I am familiar with the math and from there T&C they are doing cross matching that should absorb some of the impact. I would also expect Layers to be enticed into the BSP lay.
So would be really interested if you have experience placing bets like this say half an hour before the race, and what happened.
Bet impact on BSP experience
My experience of using SP for any moderate amount of money isn't very positive small amounts of money seem to adversely affect SP.
When I've check how much volume is at SP it's very small, so I suspect this is the reason why.
When I've check how much volume is at SP it's very small, so I suspect this is the reason why.
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ShaunWhite
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This is where the "eco system" is a complication. Backing 2k at SP might move it a fraction, unless someone somewhere else decides to lay 2k.
On the positive side though, on any reasonable market say 50k plus the SPs are returned within the last traded spread over 98% of the time so they aren't being moved that much.
On the positive side though, on any reasonable market say 50k plus the SPs are returned within the last traded spread over 98% of the time so they aren't being moved that much.
@ what odds ?
@what stage of the market life cycle ?
Liquidity plays a big role in re-setting the market towards efficiency. And also don't forget to measure the Impact of the first few seconds @ the off. BSP tend to include some IN-Play Metrics.
my opinion (might be wrong ):
its impossible to tell . just like a surgeon performing a surgery on themselves , your stake is part of the process .
@what stage of the market life cycle ?
Liquidity plays a big role in re-setting the market towards efficiency. And also don't forget to measure the Impact of the first few seconds @ the off. BSP tend to include some IN-Play Metrics.
my opinion (might be wrong ):
its impossible to tell . just like a surgeon performing a surgery on themselves , your stake is part of the process .
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jamesedwards
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Some time ago I had a reasonably successful bot across thousands of UK greyhound markets using £2 SP stakes. I moved it up to £5 at SP and profitability dropped off a cliff.
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ShaunWhite
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Presumably at the start?
The in-running aspect is a wash overall. Some better some worse. If it had a bias then we'd rinse it.
You can get "some' indication of the potential impact by looking at this...
But I wouldn't bug Peter to add it because its of very limitted use....or is it
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ShaunWhite
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.... I just tried to use the phrase "b adger Peter" (as in to bother him) and it autocorrected it to "Old Centaur employee" ?
ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 3:44 pmPresumably at the start?
The in-running aspect is a wash overall. Some better some worse. If it had a bias then we'd rinse it.
You can get "some' indication of the potential impact by looking at this...
Screenshot_20230127_154319_Samsung Internet.jpg
But I wouldn't bug Peter to add it because its of very limitted use....or is it
OP suggested 30 mins before the start..so presumably placing an irreversible SP bet before the market corrects towards efficiency (5-2 mins out)
as for the impact of IN play Data on SP .I believe it because of Peter`s Epistemic humility. I guess everyone has a point at which they stop searching for answers .
( objective or otherwise)...
until when chatGPT can give me a better answer , my Truth is what the DR. says
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ShaunWhite
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For anyone else like me....
Here is the best explainereddy405 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 26, 2023 8:02 pmI was wondering if anyone has a rough calculation for how much impact a bet will have on the BSP.
Given say a total match market of £200,000, how much impact would a £2,500 SP bet have on say a horse that has had £10,000 currently matched on it.
I am familiar with the math and from there T&C they are doing cross matching that should absorb some of the impact. I would also expect Layers to be enticed into the BSP lay.
So would be really interested if you have experience placing bets like this say half an hour before the race, and what happened.
https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/faq/?faq ... ting-price
There is no cross matching across different runners but if there is an imbalance between SP backers and SP layers (which is literally always) then BF will grab money from the exchange (for each particular runner) to supplement the reconciliation.
you're moving the price against yourself if you're taking money as well (unless you can get it all at the best ATB price, but even then you've lost the spread)
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ShaunWhite
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SP is inside the spread, you'll gain 1/2 tick backing or laying vs ATB.
It's academic anyway as you don't know exactly when SP will be reconcilled so you can't have an ATB bet matched at that exact same time.
It's academic anyway as you don't know exactly when SP will be reconcilled so you can't have an ATB bet matched at that exact same time.
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ShaunWhite
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I can't let that go
The market is no more 'efficient' at -5 mins than 0 min. But it is more accurate. The efficient market hypothesis states that prices reflect all information, which they do at any time, it's just that the later it is the more information is known. ie less deviation. But back every fav at -5mins and back evey fav at SP and the gross will effectively be the same, equally efficient.