What's that?
Book - Mordin on Time
- Brovashift
- Posts: 475
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am
What? You never know, if you don't ask you don't get lol
It is quite a good library tbf, I've had quite a few obscure trading books from my local library over the years. I just tried to get 'Statistics without tears' for an introductory level, but there was only 1 copy in the whole of North Wales and thats gone missing... So, no dice!
I've got a pdf version but it hurts my eyes reading via phone/tablet, can't beat a good book sometimes.
- Brovashift
- Posts: 475
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am
Thanks WeatherFox, I am going to have a Bing later, these results seem way better than ChatGPT (Open AI version) that said it couldn't access websites to review data such as racecards. Unless I was asking the wrong questions of course...wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:11 amSo, I thought I'd ask the Bing AI for info on the Nick Mordin book, hope it helps a little.
SpeedRatings1.png
Spped Ratings2.png
Applied to a race.png
Very useful
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
What level maths do you have? The issue you might not be aware of is that horses don't have a predicted pace, they have a predicted distribution of paces. So unless you're comfortable with binomial distributions and converting a model output like the one below into probabilities, you might want to put your effort elsewhere.Brovashift wrote: ↑Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:10 pmJust started perusing this book "Mordin on Time" (pdf) and was wondering if anyone has studied this...
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- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Yes, you need to ask open ended questions and re ask in slightly different ways.Brovashift wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 4:53 pmwearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:11 amSo, I thought I'd ask the Bing AI for info on the Nick Mordin book, hope it helps a little.
SpeedRatings1.png
Spped Ratings2.png
Applied to a race.png
Thanks WeatherFox, I am going to have a Bing later, these results seem way better than ChatGPT (Open AI version) that said it couldn't access websites to review data such as racecards. Unless I was asking the wrong questions of course...
Very useful
Chat GBT is still a good model as it might offer a different perspective. I'm leaning towards Bing AI at the moment.
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Ah, but what's the fun in that?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 1:13 amWhat level maths do you have? The issue you might not be aware of is that horses don't have a predicted pace, they have a predicted distribution of paces. So unless you're comfortable with binomial distributions and converting a model output like the one below into probabilities, you might want to put your effort elsewhere.Brovashift wrote: ↑Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:10 pmJust started perusing this book "Mordin on Time" (pdf) and was wondering if anyone has studied this...
Screenshot_16.jpg
Most with a bit of excel knowledge and creative flair could put together a speed rating model that takes into account current course topography..etc
I also think there's variance either way in the approach, and maybe you have to accept you won't get the perfect set up.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Maths is the fun and $3bn gets you plenty of fun too. I prefer Benter's approach rather than Mordin who IMO was already out of date when his book came out. I'd guess Brovashift will be onto something else new next month anyway so the replies are (excuse the pun) academic
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
I know what you mean about Benter's approach. Has an easier ratings/measurable, go to approach.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 11:38 amMaths is the fun and $3bn gets you plenty of fun too. I prefer Benter's approach rather than Mordin who IMO was already out of date when his book came out. I'd guess Brovashift will be onto something else new next month anyway so the replies are (excuse the pun) academic
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- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I could study for the rest of my life and only be 10% as smart as him but there's a lot about the general approach to like. The key realisation is that all indicators (pace, vwap, price, you name it) aren't points they're ranges.wearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:00 pmI know what you mean about Benter's approach. Has an easier ratings/measurable, go to approach.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
And there stands the best arguement for using distributions, a single pace figure doesn't tell you the liklihood of that pace being acheived, or what deviation there might be either side. It's also the case that no horse runs enough for any degree of statistical significance so you have to work with the generic type 'horse' and fit selections to type. You'll find systems for converting bare ratings into odds but they make too many assumptions to be the best solution.
Quite scary how quickly we get used to AI like thiswearthefoxhat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:02 amChat GBT is still a good model as it might offer a different perspective. I'm leaning towards Bing AI at the moment.
Human history from AI perspective must read like a blooper reel
It's almost embarrassing really
- Brovashift
- Posts: 475
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am
Lucky for me don't need maths now with Bing lol
I think this new AI might lead to a lot of lazy kids I was watching the news last night and it showed this AI recreating art masterpieces in seconds. It's absolutely nuts.
I think this new AI might lead to a lot of lazy kids I was watching the news last night and it showed this AI recreating art masterpieces in seconds. It's absolutely nuts.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Has Google made you lazy or more knowledgeable? The thing AI might lack for some time is a bullshit-o-meter. And art isn't pretty pictures or clever drawing, it's the physical manifestation of a personality or an idea, and as far as I can see AI doesn't have one, or any.