Book - Mordin on Time

[Derek27]

Has Google made you lazy or more knowledgeable? The thing AI might lack for some time is a bullshit-o-meter. And art isn't pretty pictures or clever drawing, it's the physical manifestation of a personality or an idea, and as far as I can see AI doesn't have one, or any.

Google has put an end to the good old fashion pub argument. You used to be able to argue for hours over trivia, but since the naughties, any dispute over who won what race and in what year, some killjoy gets his phone out and settles it.

[Derek27]

Lucky for me don't need maths now with Bing lol

I think this new AI might lead to a lot of lazy kids I was watching the news last night and it showed this AI recreating art masterpieces in seconds. It's absolutely nuts.

I stumbled across the equation solver by accident and tried it out. I must admit it's quite impressive. It doesn't just solve equations but explains each step. It must be a great learning tool for maths students.

[wearthefoxhat]

I've always thought speed figures are useless on their own. As Phil Bull used to say, speed figures tell you how bad a horse isn't, (not how good it is).

Speed figures combined with other elements/attributes is the ideal approach. if Phil Bull was around today, reckon he'd be extolling the virtues of the how much public information is available to equate different ratings types. I'd also say he'd review how he looked at value when placing a bet. Could imagine he'd be cracking out some nice looking spreadsheets, for his own personal use of course.

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[wearthefoxhat]

Chat GBT is still a good model as it might offer a different perspective. I'm leaning towards Bing AI at the moment.

Quite scary how quickly we get used to AI like this

Human history from AI perspective must read like a blooper reel

It's almost embarrassing really

Only just getting started!

At my age I rarely get embarrassed about anything. Keep learning new things, keep the brain active, go out and see what you can find. (sounds like a lyric to a song)

The scary bit is that those that have paid squiilions for a university degree may get quickly overtaken by dumb and dumber who now have access to answers/solutions at their figure tips...count me in!

[wearthefoxhat]

Lucky for me don't need maths now with Bing lol

I think this new AI might lead to a lot of lazy kids I was watching the news last night and it showed this AI recreating art masterpieces in seconds. It's absolutely nuts.

It's all positive stuff for sure. The lazy kids will always be lazy, the ones with get up and go will grasp things quicker and push ahead.

Gonna look into the AI art stuff at some time. Banksy look out...

[wearthefoxhat]

I know what you mean about Benter's approach. Has an easier ratings/measurable, go to approach.

I could study for the rest of my life and only be 10% as smart as him but there's a lot about the general approach to like. The key realisation is that all indicators (pace, vwap, price, you name it) aren't points they're ranges.

One lesson I learned early on in life was to never compare yourself with anyone else.

With Bill Benter, his approach at the time, pre-internet, was/is ahead of the curve for sure. I tend to approach things from a slightly different angle, who knows, I might find stumble across something he didn't. With access to A.I. algo's going forward, who knows...

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[Atho55]

Many years ago I put together a calculator to compare the past runs of each horse before comparing one against the other. Basic idea was to try and normalise past performance v next race by adding or subtracting time. Then look for the one that has the best time. Before anyone says it, going, wind speed, crisp bags blowing in parade ring spooking runners etc, not included

Have done 1st race today. VE day looks to be the fastest runner but who knows. My 10p view on Time

Elogio & VE Day.jpg

Apologise & Morandi Second.jpg

[wearthefoxhat]

One little known fact was that Bill Benter lost £120k in Hong Kong on first attempt. His 2nd visit to Hong Kong, after tweaking the model with up to 120 variables, then won $600k. He put it down to having access to historical Hong Kong jockey club odds data that he added to his algo. (interesting)

Then he scooped the triple trio for squillions soon after.

Both Hong Kong tracks at least lend themselves to some consistency with circumference/distance/sections, useful for speed ratings. The only comparison in the UK are the All weather tracks. The Turf tracks have a lot of hard to anticipate track variables.

Bill Benter still likes to tweak the computer algorithm, so maybe there are data elements that are out of date and new ones to test out.

As a footnote, Nick Mordin "retired" to the U.S, so maybe he found something he could use on their dirt tracks going forward.

[wearthefoxhat]

Many years ago I put together a calculator to compare the past runs of each horse before comparing one against the other. Basic idea was to try and normalise past performance v next race by adding or subtracting time. Then look for the one that has the best time. Before anyone says it, going, wind speed, crisp bags blowing in parade ring spooking runners etc, not included

Have done 1st race today. VE day looks to be the fastest runner but who knows. My 10p view on Time


Elogio & VE Day.jpg



Apologise & Morandi Second.jpg

Like your style there Atho5, mind you those pesky crisp bags are just one of the unknown variables not accounted for in anyones' algo's.

On your calculator, did you input the time of the race(s) completed?

[Euler]

How much did Bill Benter get in rebates? I'm aware of a lot of Hong Kong punters didn't actually make that much from forecaster and betting, but a massive amount from rebates.

[wearthefoxhat]

How much did Bill Benter get in rebates? I'm aware of a lot of Hong Kong punters didn't actually make that much from forecaster and betting, but a massive amount from rebates.

In HK, quite a chunk likely from 2006. No wonder Harry Findlay was/is a big voice on behalf of Tote Betting in the UK. (all rebates now stopped in the UK)

rebate.png

and maybe more in recent times...

HKturnover.png

[Kai]

Chat GBT is still a good model as it might offer a different perspective. I'm leaning towards Bing AI at the moment.

Quite scary how quickly we get used to AI like this

Human history from AI perspective must read like a blooper reel

It's almost embarrassing really

Only just getting started!

At my age I rarely get embarrassed about anything. Keep learning new things, keep the brain active, go out and see what you can find. (sounds like a lyric to a song)

The scary bit is that those that have paid squiilions for a university degree may get quickly overtaken by dumb and dumber who now have access to answers/solutions at their figure tips...count me in!

Idk if that's going to level the playing field much, it's like they say, knowledge is just potential power and is utterly useless unless organized into definite plans of action directed towards a definite end result. If you take Google search for example, it's a free knowledge tool that's been around for a while but people still barely know how to use it, if that hasn't created droves of new millionaires everywhere then Google 3000 probably won't either.

But we should be worried and careful, what used to be fact, that the human mind was the most powerful processor known to machine, may not even be true anymore!

And if you've watched as many sci-fi shows as I have you will know how easy it is to add personality subroutines etc to AI

[ShaunWhite]

How much did Bill Benter get in rebates? I'm aware of a lot of Hong Kong punters didn't actually make that much from forecaster and betting, but a massive amount from rebates.

Getting himself into the position to be offered rebates in the first place was the significant achievement. Is Mr Benter still a visiting professor at Southampton Uni?

[ShaunWhite]

The scary bit is that those that have paid squiilions for a university degree may get quickly overtaken by dumb and dumber who now have access to answers/solutions at their figure tips...count me in!

Aside from the sciences, sucess doesn't comes from what you know it's about who you know. You aren't going to get far being a genius who lives in your mother's basement . Uni is about connections and demonstrating self sufficiency and personal accountability, the knowledge itself has always been in libraries (the interent) for free.

[StellaBot]

Sometimes, as found many years ago
I was perusing a website
I nearly fell over backwards

An EX(retired) EXEC FROM LONDON STOCK ETC

posted his example of a model he created
for horse racing

He said it was secret, not sell, which he didnt

His model was exact split second predict of mine