2 minute madness

The sport of kings.
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lm1994
Posts: 34
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:22 pm

Hi all,
for all the pre-off horse racing traders out there, I would love to get your take on the market madness that occurs at more or less precisely 2 minutes before the scheduled post time on horse races.

I picked up on this very early on when I first started looking at the markets and it seems to have persisted to this day!

Not only is very obvious too see just from looking at the ladders, I have also quantified it using a basic automation file I built to determine the average market turnover per 5 seconds (why absolutely sky rockets post 2 min mark).

At first, I thought it was a monstrous bot that triggers at that time which has a knock on effect with cross matching, people fear exiting their positions and people trying to jump on the back of that movement, as well as other bots triggering due to the increased turnover.

My current theory is that perhaps a cascading effect has been occurring for sometime where something triggered it off at 2 minutes (maybe whatever it was is no longer even active), and, over the years, the madness has continued to grow.

I’ve also seen it mentioned that this could potentially be bookmakers hedging their positions.

Would love to get more insight on this from anyone who has been active in pre off horse racing markets for a while, as it’s a very critical point within every market.

Cheers guys
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Euler
Posts: 24702
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I can't remember when it started, but for many years it didn't exist.

Based upon my knowledge of the market it looks like hedging to me.
stueytrader
Posts: 863
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

I don't have a specific answer to this, not sure who would or could - Betfair perhaps could if they analysed the sources of money, but even they probably wouldn't bother unless needed to know?

However, I've often considered the issue of 'timing' of money, amounts or direction - both can often seem to be affected by timing of the money, and late money is a clear distinction in my mind.

I've considered before that 'late money is more correct money' as a general idea - still not completely sure on that though?
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

stueytrader wrote:
Sat Apr 29, 2023 12:13 pm
I've considered before that 'late money is more correct money' as a general idea - still not completely sure on that though?
It was before this started, but it's not now.

It's not impossible it's Betfair itself. But I have no evidence of that.
Snaff
Posts: 172
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:26 pm

Euler wrote:
Sat Apr 29, 2023 1:25 pm
stueytrader wrote:
Sat Apr 29, 2023 12:13 pm
I've considered before that 'late money is more correct money' as a general idea - still not completely sure on that though?
It was before this started, but it's not now.

It's not impossible it's Betfair itself. But I have no evidence of that.
I did try follow this 2 minute madness once for a couple of weeks. Betting by book percentage on every runner that shortened up inside the final 2 minutes. It was up 5 points one week and then nudged back to evens the next. Results went roughly -1 -3 +6 +1 -2 ect…

Do you think the is any good money worth following in the market or is it all too inconsistent?
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Snaff wrote:
Tue May 02, 2023 12:24 pm
Do you think the is any good money worth following in the market or is it all too inconsistent?
By the time you've seen where the money is going it's too late, the value is prior to the move. BSP is a little more variable than it was, but in bulk it remains the closest thing to an accurate price.
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xtrader16
Posts: 411
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:00 pm

I've watched this for years. My guess is, it's several very well funded accounts who have a very good understanding of how automation works and how it the market can be manipulated. It is 100% automated though. I've also got a good idea which way it is going to go as well as I've analysed it over the years.

It's just like Virmin said in The Warriors. "It's all out there, you've just got to figure out a way of how to go and get it". "Can you diggggg it"

There is a case to be made to only enter the market at + 02:00 and be out at +01:40 on every race. Do not trade any other time.
lm1994
Posts: 34
Joined: Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:22 pm

Euler wrote:
Thu Apr 27, 2023 11:57 am
I can't remember when it started, but for many years it didn't exist.

Based upon my knowledge of the market it looks like hedging to me.
Thanks Peter, do you know what this always occurs at 2 mins before post?
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Rollox
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:11 pm

I always trade next to a porterloo and it's about the two minute mark I always seem to need to use it :shock:
Bartlby37
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:02 pm

I just got caught by this today - price went from 3.55 out to 3.75 and back to 3.2 in an instant. I've just added volume to the chart beneath my ladders and I'd always assume that this crazy moves were someone dumping money into the market but what was strange was there was no spike in volume - can anyone explain that to me?
Snaff
Posts: 172
Joined: Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:26 pm

I reckon it’s something to do with betfairs cross matching mechanism but thats just a theory.
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ShaunWhite
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Bartlby37 wrote:
Thu Jul 20, 2023 2:34 pm
no spike in volume
Big cancellations can cause a ripple effect of further cancellations and then skewed weight of money figures trigger other people's strategies. It's a complex ecosystem. When you get hundreds of people and bots all doing slightly different things then stuff happens.
Long Term
Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:19 pm

Peter is right, this did not use to happen, i have always thought it was Betfair doing this.

Betfair needs to have winners and losers.
Bartlby37
Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:02 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Fri Jul 21, 2023 6:53 pm
Bartlby37 wrote:
Thu Jul 20, 2023 2:34 pm
no spike in volume
Big cancellations can cause a ripple effect of further cancellations and then skewed weight of money figures trigger other people's strategies. It's a complex ecosystem. When you get hundreds of people and bots all doing slightly different things then stuff happens.
That's interesting because it sort of looked like orders being suddenly pulled but it happened so fast I couldn't see what was happening.

Someone else mentioned cross matching - I've been trading with 'virtual bets switched off so wouldn't see that - I normally try not to be in the market around the 2 minute mark but got caught.
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