Dobbing results critique please.
Depends on sample size. Have you calculated p-value for it?
If that holds up over time you should be able to retire soon
Have had so many things play out like that where it's "show me the money!!!!!!!!!!!!"
P-value is a godsend to me in that I know I need to look further in my dataset
https://football-data.co.uk/
P-value spreadsheet is to the right hand side, its a god-send in your sanity
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Depends what you mean by "regularly" and if that becomes 800 out of 1400.
If you're making money then it's a good strategy no matter what the underlying numbers are. I wouldn't worry what other people think is good, it's good compared the the vast majority that make nothing but not so good compared to people making 4 figures a day.
RoI is a reasonable measure of if your performance being sustainable or just a good run (net pl/sum of back stakes +lay stakes). If it's more than 3 or 4% then expect to give some back at some point.
If you're making money then it's a good strategy no matter what the underlying numbers are. I wouldn't worry what other people think is good, it's good compared the the vast majority that make nothing but not so good compared to people making 4 figures a day.
RoI is a reasonable measure of if your performance being sustainable or just a good run (net pl/sum of back stakes +lay stakes). If it's more than 3 or 4% then expect to give some back at some point.
The success rate cannot be assessed in isolation. To calculate the expected value(EV), you have to multiply the average profit or loss by the probability of winning or losing a trade and then add them together.
In your case, the probability of winning a trade is 57.1% and the probability of losing a trade is 42.9%.
Suppose you lose and win on average the same amount, £10. The EV of a winning trade is £10 * 57.1% = £5.71, and the EV of a losing trade is -£10 * 42.9% = -£4.29.
The EV of any trade is the sum of the EV of a winning trade and the EV of a losing trade: £5.71 + (-£4.29) = £1.42.
Replace the values in the example with those in your results to find out how much you can expect to earn(or lose) on average for each trade.
Of course the more results you have the more accurately the value will reflect the truth.
In your case, the probability of winning a trade is 57.1% and the probability of losing a trade is 42.9%.
Suppose you lose and win on average the same amount, £10. The EV of a winning trade is £10 * 57.1% = £5.71, and the EV of a losing trade is -£10 * 42.9% = -£4.29.
The EV of any trade is the sum of the EV of a winning trade and the EV of a losing trade: £5.71 + (-£4.29) = £1.42.
Replace the values in the example with those in your results to find out how much you can expect to earn(or lose) on average for each trade.
Of course the more results you have the more accurately the value will reflect the truth.
Since 2016 I've done about 10000 recorded DOBS (I keep a monthly record) 5800 of them have been successful so yes it is possible for it to be a successful long term strategy, however....
1) You will encounter months where you make a loss or break even. This can even happen in a month which you would expect to be profitable.
2) External factors can play a part in your success/failure like Covid for example.
3) You need a decent no of selections and that can vary. When I first started in 2016 I could expect to find about 6 of these a day. In more recent years it's more like 2 or 3. If I'm not working and available to watch the markets and look more deeply into the form I can usually find a couple more.
1) You will encounter months where you make a loss or break even. This can even happen in a month which you would expect to be profitable.
2) External factors can play a part in your success/failure like Covid for example.
3) You need a decent no of selections and that can vary. When I first started in 2016 I could expect to find about 6 of these a day. In more recent years it's more like 2 or 3. If I'm not working and available to watch the markets and look more deeply into the form I can usually find a couple more.