Sample size for calculating avg Fin.Times

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Vaz0202
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 8:39 pm
Glad that was the not too complex version :D

One question it raises though, and I never watch horseracing so I don't know, is how much does a race depend on tactics rather than everyone running at their optimal speed? I watch athletics, cycling etc and the speed in the first part is almost irrelevent compared to the sprint at the end. And the way handicapping works I thought it wasn't good to win by too far or as fast as you can?

I guess all this pace/speed stuff has been around for decades though so if it's proven then it's all worth it.
Would also like to add that some Jockeys are notorious for throwing in the towel if they aren’t even close to winning (Sorry Dettori)
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Brovashift
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon May 22, 2023 8:39 pm
Glad that was the not too complex version :D

One question it raises though, and I never watch horseracing so I don't know, is how much does a race depend on tactics rather than everyone running at their optimal speed? I watch athletics, cycling etc and the speed in the first part is almost irrelevent compared to the sprint at the end. And the way handicapping works I thought it wasn't good to win by too far or as fast as you can?

I guess all this pace/speed stuff has been around for decades though so if it's proven then it's all worth it.
You know me, once Im in the flow it all comes pouring out :lol:
I think a large part of in play does depend on tactics. When you know where your front runners, your prominent stalkers, and hold up closer are, then depending on the pace thats been set, some will/might/should have an advantage over others as the race plays out. Speed & stamina has to play a part imo, plus I'm working with the data that I've got for now lol.
All Im trying to do is simplify the obvious stuff on the racecards to highlight the strong and weak selection for that particular race, develop the race shape ahead of time, and shortlist if you like, the runners that I need/want to look deeper at.
Not sure about handicapping, I was using the term quite loosely :D
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Brovashift
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StellaBot wrote:
Tue May 23, 2023 10:49 am
Soz Brovashift

Just seen your message re how do you know if distantracks can only increase in distance ces are moved

Nowadays tracks can only increase in distance as all were remeasured some time ago

The BHB shows this data in advance of racecards and same data after results
(I think Im right about this)

eg if click on "results "

https://www.britishhorseracing.com/racing/results/

Then select Market Rasen yesterday
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/raci ... 2023/13184

Other way which is new to me

is
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/raci ... 2023/13184

Then select Results and this will give previous Market Rasen results with any distance changes
in Excel format


https://www.britishhorseracing.com/feed ... /dc_33.csv


Hope this helps
Hi StellaBot, thanks for the links... I've not been back on here all week so just catching up now.

I read that its to provide fresh ground as the original curcuit gets churned up throughout the season. So I assume it gets put back for the following year and the process starts again does it?
Looking at the rail movements in that link BHA, 187y! thats pretty significant.... 170meters! Jeez.... :shock:

I just read that these rail movements make finish times a bit of a nightmare, and cant always be relied upon. I may just stick to AW and Turf under 1mile...
Last edited by Brovashift on Sat May 27, 2023 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Brovashift
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I noticed in those shared "Standard Race Times".xls sheets that the distances dont quite match the new RP race distances, out by 1-2yrds. These wouldn't work for me as I need them to match my existing upto race distances in order for them to match and display them on my userform. I started the pain staking task of updating them all , but luckily I found some updated copies online that are attached, if anyone wants...
Apparently some people update these every day because they change so often.
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ShaunWhite
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Brovashift wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 7:51 pm
I noticed in those shared "Standard Race Times".xls sheets that the distances dont quite match the new RP race distances, out by 1-2yrds. These wouldn't work for me as I need them to match my existing upto race distances in order for them to match and display them on my userform. I started the pain staking task of updating them all , but luckily I found some updated copies online that are attached, if anyone wants...
Apparently some people update these every day because they change so often.
Why worry about a yard? They're running maybe 15yrds a second, and seeing as you're short of sample you could probably go 30yrds either side or more and not alter your avg time by anything meaningful.

But you don't need to match them up anyway, just plot them all (time vs distance), draw a trend through it and you've got every intermediate distance even if it's never been run. Or its been run a handful of times and they're all atypical from the expected duration.
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Brovashift
Posts: 476
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 8:42 pm
Brovashift wrote:
Sat May 27, 2023 7:51 pm
I noticed in those shared "Standard Race Times".xls sheets that the distances dont quite match the new RP race distances, out by 1-2yrds. These wouldn't work for me as I need them to match my existing upto race distances in order for them to match and display them on my userform. I started the pain staking task of updating them all , but luckily I found some updated copies online that are attached, if anyone wants...
Apparently some people update these every day because they change so often.
Why worry about a yard? They're running maybe 15yrds a second, and seeing as you're short of sample you could probably go 30yrds either side or more and not alter your avg time by anything meaningful.

But you don't need to match them up anyway, just plot them all (time vs distance), draw a trend through it and you've got every intermediate distance even if it's never been run. Or its been run a handful of times and they're all atypical from the expected duration.
I need the distances to match between my static standard times ("Sheet1"), and the sheet that gets populated on the fly when userform _Initialized, with the days racecard info. It takes the current RP race distance from the racecard when race course/time selected, and then looks for a match in Sheet1 to get the corresponding Standard Time and display it at the top of the userform, so they're visible when reviewing a selections historical finsh times on similar conditions. Saves me having to navigate away and mess about with other forms/pages etc. The new updated sheets have sorted it.
15yrds a second (187y), thats still 12.4 seconds extra. I probably wont bother with times for courses that change the distances by moving rails, but if I was to, and working to a standard time, couldn't that 12.4 seconds be added to the standard time?
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