US racing - let it run, or take starting price?

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Fugazi
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Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

If I have what I think is a value bet,

Does it make any difference if I just let it run, or take BSP?

My thoughts are that in low liquid markets taking BSP could still be very slightly less value than letting it run? SO marginally I'm better off letting it run? Or will it make no difference at all? I guess as well, not taking BSP is one less transaction
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Fugazi wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2024 10:43 am
If I have what I think is a value bet,

Does it make any difference if I just let it run, or take BSP?

My thoughts are that in low liquid markets taking BSP could still be very slightly less value than letting it run? SO marginally I'm better off letting it run? Or will it make no difference at all? I guess as well, not taking BSP is one less transaction
If you already have a bet, you either green it or let it run. Taking BSP would be placing another bet on it, or have I misunderstood?
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jamesedwards
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I haven't done BSP betting on US racing but my gut instinct says you're going to be giving a little bit back. Especially if your stakes are of any decent size. The markets are pretty thin.
Fugazi
Posts: 285
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2024 12:55 pm
Fugazi wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2024 10:43 am
If I have what I think is a value bet,

Does it make any difference if I just let it run, or take BSP?

My thoughts are that in low liquid markets taking BSP could still be very slightly less value than letting it run? SO marginally I'm better off letting it run? Or will it make no difference at all? I guess as well, not taking BSP is one less transaction
If you already have a bet, you either green it or let it run. Taking BSP would be placing another bet on it, or have I misunderstood?
Technically im greening up but by placing the bet at BSP.

Eg I lay at 2.4
BSP back at 2.8

Lay at 3.4
BSP back at 3.2 (i dont always get the value right)

If that makes sense.
Fugazi
Posts: 285
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

jamesedwards wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2024 1:53 pm
I haven't done BSP betting on US racing but my gut instinct says you're going to be giving a little bit back. Especially if your stakes are of any decent size. The markets are pretty thin.
Yeah thats what I suspect as well. I think at best it is 0 EV compared to letting it run, possibly -EV.

Can't see a disadvantage to letting it run except needing a bigger bankroll for the variance
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Derek27
Posts: 23632
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Fugazi wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:30 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2024 12:55 pm
Fugazi wrote:
Sat Mar 30, 2024 10:43 am
If I have what I think is a value bet,

Does it make any difference if I just let it run, or take BSP?

My thoughts are that in low liquid markets taking BSP could still be very slightly less value than letting it run? SO marginally I'm better off letting it run? Or will it make no difference at all? I guess as well, not taking BSP is one less transaction
If you already have a bet, you either green it or let it run. Taking BSP would be placing another bet on it, or have I misunderstood?
Technically im greening up but by placing the bet at BSP.

Eg I lay at 2.4
BSP back at 2.8

Lay at 3.4
BSP back at 3.2 (i dont always get the value right)

If that makes sense.
I've got you. I'd go along with James. Those markets are pretty weak. I've had a few safety closes at BSP on thin Aussie markets, the price returned can be unpredictable and sometimes many ticks away from where it last traded at off.
Anbell
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Fugazi
Posts: 285
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2024 7:20 pm

Anbell wrote:
Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:45 am
image_2024-04-01_204446867.png
Interesting insight.

For me, never hedge 😅
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