What are the differences and difficulties of pre-live or live in horses?

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Oliveira05
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Joined: Sat Apr 27, 2024 3:21 am

As I'm still getting into horse trading, I'm a little unaware of the difficulties and differences, for a beginner in this market, but not at Betfair, which one would be less risky or have similarities in terms of difficulty? I'm reading about scalping and I really liked it, but I still have a lot of difficulties in assimilating the market and variations, knowing certain movements, and another question, what is the minimum time to know the minimum?
Sorry for the English, I'm Brazilian!
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Kai
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You can probably frame risk better in prerace, while inplay has your entire stake/position up for grabs.

"Minimum time" realistically can be months before you see results, but on average probably longer.

Btw you have some good traders in Brazil, with good advice too.
Anbell
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I'm a long term pro working on pre-off horses.

To me, In-play horses is a completely different category. I'd maybe pick up football or basketball or politics just as soon as I'd pick up IP horses.

Does anyone find any correlation between pre and post off horses?
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Kai
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Anbell wrote:
Wed May 01, 2024 11:37 am
I'm a long term pro working on pre-off horses.

To me, In-play horses is a completely different category. I'd maybe pick up football or basketball or politics just as soon as I'd pick up IP horses.

Does anyone find any correlation between pre and post off horses?
Hard to get any actual feedback on these types of questions, the few times I posted a genuine query over the years I barely got anything :)

FWIW I think there's a bit of money overlapping slightly but generally no, different worlds entirely.
Oliveira05
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Kai wrote:
Wed May 01, 2024 10:09 am
You can probably frame risk better in prerace, while inplay has your entire stake/position up for grabs.

"Minimum time" realistically can be months before you see results, but on average probably longer.

Btw you have some good traders in Brazil, with good advice too.
Thank you for your answer, we really have good traders, but they are generally focused on futenol, I noticed that most of the information in Portuguese that I found is "basic"
Oliveira05
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Anbell wrote:
Wed May 01, 2024 11:37 am
I'm a long term pro working on pre-off horses.

To me, In-play horses is a completely different category. I'd maybe pick up football or basketball or politics just as soon as I'd pick up IP horses.

Does anyone find any correlation between pre and post off horses?
I noticed from the fluctuation in the odds that there is a huge difference, perhaps the tennis market can train its reaction to the horse market, I remember reading a post like this from someone who switched from tennis to horses both live! And in your long career as a professional, what is your biggest difficulty?
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decomez6
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Anbell wrote:
Wed May 01, 2024 11:37 am
I'm a long term pro working on pre-off horses.

To me, In-play horses is a completely different category. I'd maybe pick up football or basketball or politics just as soon as I'd pick up IP horses.

Does anyone find any correlation between pre and post off horses?
it depends what you do pre off.
cold , semi-auto, full -auto.
depending on how much time I get on a race i will choose either of the above.
i personally do,
cold- from ten minutes to before the reset.(i need my eyes on screen)
semi -auto use alerts and markers while working on other selections/research

Full auto , only testing on an ideas in practice mode and live very low risk trades small stakes.

In -play..
a very light , surface level research on the selections... eg form , tips etc
compare what the sentiment is like on the pre-off market,
closely monitor the live Tv feed.
final check on BSP and volume.
use TPD to steel- man my position.

so in short I believe ( from my limited exeperience ) there is a correlation to be had , but its not much if you do full auto.
Anbell
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Oliveira05 wrote:
Thu May 02, 2024 7:48 pm
Anbell wrote:
Wed May 01, 2024 11:37 am
I'm a long term pro working on pre-off horses.

To me, In-play horses is a completely different category. I'd maybe pick up football or basketball or politics just as soon as I'd pick up IP horses.

Does anyone find any correlation between pre and post off horses?
I noticed from the fluctuation in the odds that there is a huge difference, perhaps the tennis market can train its reaction to the horse market, I remember reading a post like this from someone who switched from tennis to horses both live! And in your long career as a professional, what is your biggest difficulty?
Liquidity, overround & volatility
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Euler
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Pre-off odds are driven by emotion and opinion.

In-play odds are driven by what's going on in the race.

Pre-off is about 80% of volume, in-play 20%

You need much bigger wins inplay to make it profitable in the long term, but pre-off you can work to wafer thin margins.
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decomez6
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Euler wrote:
Fri May 03, 2024 10:12 am
Pre-off odds are driven by emtional and opinion.

In-play odds are driven by what's going on in the race.

Pre-off is about 80% of volume, in-play 20%

You need much bigger wins inplay to make it profitable in the long term, but pre-off you can work to wafer thin margins.
Borrowing from your lessons on BASE rates , and depending on the odds available , the strike rate can be as high as 99% ( In-play) .
Volatility is high and asking for prices can be difficult due the 2 sec . delays with lower liquidity which affect the fill rates.
The overround can be surmounted by Dutching or Bookmaking . This will require a good background check on the selections and how their prices behave pre off.

Where as emotions and opinions drive the pre off .sometimes the facts exuded during the parade or at the post will give away some important pointers on to how a horse will run at the real race. ( Thus live pictures and TV coverage is a good tool)
And this can also be seen on the ladder .
And if what you see on the picture is not reflected on the ladder , then you know punters have developed an emotional attachment to their positions and hence take that as an edge .
Due to all the overlapping factors above , I believe , if one is trading manually or semi auto, it' possible to correlate the ques and use them during in-play .
But if you are fully automatic , it's not the case.
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jimibt
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decomez6 wrote:
Fri May 03, 2024 1:00 pm
Where as emotions and opinions drive the pre off .sometimes the facts exuded during the parade or at the post will give away some important pointers on to how a horse will run at the real race.
many years ago, i did some work for a french guy who made a living from literally taking notes during the parade and creating his own tissue prices and then placing a number of back and lay bets, based on his observations. he even had a small syndicate of *investors* who placed bets based on his tissue price. my task was to allow him to use a tablet to input the revised prices and then relay those out to a centralised hub that then pinged those numbers directly to the end users. the endgame (which was never fully realised) was to use COM+ to inject the bets into BA. Of course, this would now be super simple using the api, but back then it was all about using excel interfaces etc...
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decomez6
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jimibt wrote:
Fri May 03, 2024 1:29 pm
decomez6 wrote:
Fri May 03, 2024 1:00 pm
Where as emotions and opinions drive the pre off .sometimes the facts exuded during the parade or at the post will give away some important pointers on to how a horse will run at the real race.
many years ago, i did some work for a french guy who made a living from literally taking notes during the parade and creating his own tissue prices and then placing a number of back and lay bets, based on his observations. he even had a small syndicate of *investors* who placed bets based on his tissue price. my task was to allow him to use a tablet to input the revised prices and then relay those out to a centralised hub that then pinged those numbers directly to the end users. the endgame (which was never fully realised) was to use COM+ to inject the bets into BA. Of course, this would now be super simple using the api, but back then it was all about using excel interfaces etc...
makes a lot of sense , if one knows what to look for and you have eyes on the ground.
I no longer make my own prices . I tried using all sorts of variables and paid /unpaid subscriptions , then I realized it's effects on my trading . The amount of work involved , tended to push me towards an emotional attachment to my selections. just couldn't take the pain of all that hard work going to waste.
now I just look at various other outlets picks and Tips for free e.g Time form, At the races....and then compare them to what the market thinks v/s the tips.
Combine that with a bit of form reading and race type . Have a rough idea what to expect.
Then finally watch the race , using any available paid / unpaid tools .
And surprisingly many times, the leader in (old) volume , price etc was still getting backed even when they are not leading or even when the commentators clearly spots a fault and reduction in performance.

My conclusion was : only go in-play with all the above is taken into consideration.
And only use the correlation if you have planned for it.

There are many times I trade semi automatically on a selection that i am interested to see how it performs in play .
But I would never mix in-play with the pre off based on pure mechanical working of the market . If the goal is to have a pre determined opening and closing conditions,
In order to calculate the base rate for a fully automated process, then each must be treated separately.
Oliveira05
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Joined: Sat Apr 27, 2024 3:21 am

Euler wrote:
Fri May 03, 2024 10:12 am
Pre-off odds are driven by emotion and opinion.

In-play odds are driven by what's going on in the race.

Pre-off is about 80% of volume, in-play 20%

You need much bigger wins inplay to make it profitable in the long term, but pre-off you can work to wafer thin margins.
So basically the pre bettor is supported by the mistakes of other bettors and a sequence of notes that the market shows him? Can the use of indicators help?
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