Here is the bottom line. Trade a market (not just horses) completely at random, you will lose money.
Work out what percentage you are losing on turnover, work out your strike rate. Start working on refining your entry point and market type. This will nudge you nearer to break even and improve your strike rate, if not start again with a different idea. Then when you feel you are having an impact shift your focus to your management of orders and / or when to exit a market.
less than 100 people make a living from horses pre race ?
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crossing_along
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Wed May 06, 2009 2:31 pm
Euler how will you define 'edge' ? I see some people say dont exist and it's equal to skillz when we talk abaut pre race trading , some say its a secret entry point when market does something (price,volume,wom,book related ) and only he (or a few) can trace that , and some say its the key and must keep good records with strike rate and how much win/lose each time we trade correcting the faults and by this we may find a path to limit losses and increase wininigs . ''the edge '' could be something to keep secret ? Or more like a developed skill actually very hard to exaplain if not impossible for someone to follow .
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
All 'edges' are somewhat secretive, no one will give you valuable information if it will preventing one from winning.
Whyle some edges can come through speed in access to information, others can simply rely on market conditions, when you get a picture that tells you 70% (eg)of the time that x happens, the market will go that way it's only up to you to turn it into a profit.
Peter has talked recently about something that is really interesting too, the niches. I know personally 3 traders, we all trade different markets and have such different aproaches, that it's clear that the thing that really matters is that you come up with something that works.
Good luck!
Whyle some edges can come through speed in access to information, others can simply rely on market conditions, when you get a picture that tells you 70% (eg)of the time that x happens, the market will go that way it's only up to you to turn it into a profit.
Peter has talked recently about something that is really interesting too, the niches. I know personally 3 traders, we all trade different markets and have such different aproaches, that it's clear that the thing that really matters is that you come up with something that works.
Good luck!
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crossing_along
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Wed May 06, 2009 2:31 pm
I dont understand why some races are ''Rubbish racing'' , I can still see + 60k matched 15 minutes before the off and 150-300k matched 1 minte before off . So people do something in there ,they may trade for a profit .Euler wrote:Do you: -
(A) Think that only some markets can be profitable
(B) Think that profit exists in all markets
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crossing_along
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Wed May 06, 2009 2:31 pm
I delete it my opinion here due to my uncommon sense .
Last edited by crossing_along on Thu Mar 31, 2011 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gallybloke
- Posts: 41
- Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 1:25 pm
@ Crossing
With all due respect I am glad you started your post with - In my opinion, thats excatly what it is, an opinion with no evidence or statistics to back it up.
About as useless as a bucket with two holes
With all due respect I am glad you started your post with - In my opinion, thats excatly what it is, an opinion with no evidence or statistics to back it up.
About as useless as a bucket with two holes
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crossing_along
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Wed May 06, 2009 2:31 pm
That's only my opinion after watching several traders videos and watched /trade it the market as a newbie. I'm sure Euler have the right numbers or atleast better ones close to reality based on his stats.
and thats all people are doing.Re : How much matched where
It is complete guesswork. If Betfair streamed data to us you would be able to know in the same manner as a level two screen on financial markets. But even then you still get iceberg orders.
If you use decent stakes your orders get nibbled away over time and you can check your matched bets to work out just what sort of person is in the market. I do this often.
I don't have an recent stats but I did have some detailed ones a few years back and less than 0.30% of bets matched were in the four figure range. The majority were below £100. No mention of scratched trades so far, which is another variable.
It is complete guesswork. If Betfair streamed data to us you would be able to know in the same manner as a level two screen on financial markets. But even then you still get iceberg orders.
If you use decent stakes your orders get nibbled away over time and you can check your matched bets to work out just what sort of person is in the market. I do this often.
I don't have an recent stats but I did have some detailed ones a few years back and less than 0.30% of bets matched were in the four figure range. The majority were below £100. No mention of scratched trades so far, which is another variable.
Ever seen the folks who get frustrated with software and start taking it out on the computer keyboards?freddy wrote: People wouldn't complain if they bought a hammer from a D.I.Y and couldn't manage to put up a shelf up would they ?
they would just accept that it was the lack of skill rather than the hammer that was at fault.
Of course BetAngel is not to blame, but the fact is, the people who don't make it will start to get angry and frustrated, and BetAngel is the natural target for them to vent their frustrations on. It may be a BetAngel for the folks who win, but for the folks on the other end its a BetDemon. 