Today's Horse Racing

The sport of kings.
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gazuty
Posts: 1926
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Anbell wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:43 am
Tuco wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:23 pm
...when trading horses pre-off, what skill percentage is:

a) knowing the horses/form/jockey/trainer/course/weather/distance etc. ?

and

b) knowing how the markets tend to move (ie reading the markets)?
I'm 100% b)
+1
Emmson
Posts: 1820
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

Clearly if I'm doing Aus nags which I do occasionally, I have no idea who the gun trainers and jockeys are so that would be emphatically B but on Brit nags I like to know who the trainer of the horse I'm trading, is it John Gosden or Alan Berry? and the jockey and the going and other variables. On the dogs totally blind cold trading don't pay attention to Racing Post forecasts or anything.
jamesg46
Posts: 2449
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Tuco wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:23 pm
...when trading horses pre-off, what skill percentage is:

a) knowing the horses/form/jockey/trainer/course/weather/distance etc. ?

and

b) knowing how the markets tend to move (ie reading the markets)?
I would say it's 50/50 one is fundamentals the other technicals. The market is an opinion driven machine, opinion is formed from both fundamental & technical analysis. I used to spend more time on (b) but once you know how a market generally moves it becomes subconscious strategy & generally a personal thing (a) gained more attention as I attempt to read the reader, (a) is where things become much more open, it allows for interpretation of words and actions.
Anbell
Posts: 952
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

Emmson wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:22 am
Clearly if I'm doing Aus nags which I do occasionally, I have no idea who the gun trainers and jockeys are so that would be emphatically B but on Brit nags I like to know who the trainer of the horse I'm trading, is it John Gosden or Alan Berry? and the jockey and the going and other variables. On the dogs totally blind cold trading don't pay attention to Racing Post forecasts or anything.
It'd be interesting if you could set up an experiment where you were trading blind on the uk horses, and see if that helped or hindered you. You obviously think that info helps you, but it would be interesting to check. (I can't do the reverse experiment because I can't learn all that stuff overnight!)
Trader724
Posts: 174
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:22 pm

Tuco wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:23 pm
...when trading horses pre-off, what skill percentage is:

a) knowing the horses/form/jockey/trainer/course/weather/distance etc. ?

and

b) knowing how the markets tend to move (ie reading the markets)?
(1/100a+99/100b)^1000
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beermonsterman
Posts: 338
Joined: Sun Dec 25, 2016 2:47 pm
Location: Birmingham UK

My strategy is cold trading if I look at opinions and form + trainer jockey etc it makes me become attached to my trades and used to make me force a trade which usually ends bad.
I pick my markets to trade then trade cold works for me.
Trading VWAP reversals seems to be the way forward for me thanks to Dallas for the automated VWAP alerts
every one is different but my opinion is 100% B
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 1869
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

beermonsterman wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:23 am
My strategy is cold trading if I look at opinions and form + trainer jockey etc it makes me become attached to my trades and used to make me force a trade which usually ends bad.
I pick my markets to trade then trade cold works for me.
Trading VWAP reversals seems to be the way forward for me thanks to Dallas for the automated VWAP alerts
every one is different but my opinion is 100% B
I'm somewhere around that too.

I have list of trainers/jockeys I trust will perform, and focus on some key areas of other info, freely available on most websites.
If it aligns, and there is confirmation in the markets, Pre/In-Play, then I'm all over it.

Other factors that have been mentioned a few times by others;

1. Sequence of losing favourites (chasers lumping on - Mad Bomber)
2. Jockey winning multiple times building momentum (Dettori - Ascot)
3. Influence of tipsters in the press giving a majority verdict. (10+ selections usually odds-on, if not why not)
4. Influence of a perceived profitable tipster that get followed over a cliff. (Hugh Taylor)
5. Confirmation of market movers given by press. (Oddschecker/Attheraces)

Football is a different animal, for the football thread.
Trader Pat
Posts: 1797
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:57 am
beermonsterman wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:23 am
My strategy is cold trading if I look at opinions and form + trainer jockey etc it makes me become attached to my trades and used to make me force a trade which usually ends bad.
I pick my markets to trade then trade cold works for me.
Trading VWAP reversals seems to be the way forward for me thanks to Dallas for the automated VWAP alerts
every one is different but my opinion is 100% B
I'm somewhere around that too.

I have list of trainers/jockeys I trust will perform, and focus on some key areas of other info, freely available on most websites.
If it aligns, and there is confirmation in the markets, Pre/In-Play, then I'm all over it.

Other factors that have been mentioned a few times by others;

1. Sequence of losing favourites (chasers lumping on - Mad Bomber)
2. Jockey winning multiple times building momentum (Dettori - Ascot)
3. Influence of tipsters in the press giving a majority verdict. (10+ selections usually odds-on, if not why not)
4. Influence of a perceived profitable tipster that get followed over a cliff. (Hugh Taylor)
5. Confirmation of market movers given by press. (Oddschecker/Attheraces)

Football is a different animal, for the football thread.

I might have misread the original question but for me 100% b is trading order flow and paying no attention to anything else. When I say I'm >80% b that's trading order flow but taking into account 1 & 2 above, plus a few other factors. I don't pay any attention to 3-5 though
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 1869
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:27 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:57 am
beermonsterman wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:23 am
My strategy is cold trading if I look at opinions and form + trainer jockey etc it makes me become attached to my trades and used to make me force a trade which usually ends bad.
I pick my markets to trade then trade cold works for me.
Trading VWAP reversals seems to be the way forward for me thanks to Dallas for the automated VWAP alerts
every one is different but my opinion is 100% B
I'm somewhere around that too.

I have list of trainers/jockeys I trust will perform, and focus on some key areas of other info, freely available on most websites.
If it aligns, and there is confirmation in the markets, Pre/In-Play, then I'm all over it.

Other factors that have been mentioned a few times by others;

1. Sequence of losing favourites (chasers lumping on - Mad Bomber)
2. Jockey winning multiple times building momentum (Dettori - Ascot)
3. Influence of tipsters in the press giving a majority verdict. (10+ selections usually odds-on, if not why not)
4. Influence of a perceived profitable tipster that get followed over a cliff. (Hugh Taylor)
5. Confirmation of market movers given by press. (Oddschecker/Attheraces)

Football is a different animal, for the football thread.

I might have misread the original question but for me 100% b is trading order flow and paying no attention to anything else. When I say I'm >80% b that's trading order flow but taking into account 1 & 2 above, plus a few other factors. I don't pay any attention to 3-5 though
With 3; It's more a question of why the selection is not odds-on and if the market is moving against it. (will it continue)

With 5; It's down to common/free information everyone else has too and whether or not the trend(s) continue (or not)

Either way, there's usually a morsel to feed on.
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Tuco
Posts: 488
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:43 pm

...thanks for all of those replies guys - I had in mind in would likely be 75%+ on b).

I can learn b) (though no two markets are the same, I think the key is probably not to panic when the market moves against you), but a) would take many years as I trade most other sports/specials (was up until 6am trading UFC257 overnight).
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