Today's Horse Racing

The sport of kings.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Euler wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:34 pm
It's something or somebody hedging a position I reckon. I've looked at it a lot and you can see from the way the market shapes that it's expunging liability by feeding it into the market.
Love your last sentence their, sounds great, but no idea what it means 🤣😂🤣
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

It didn't just fall off a cliff, it fell off of many which is ok because I get to explore the negative data. Problem I see is with setting stop losses.... I need to save on those losses somehow but there is a balance to be had, a lot of those positive trades were at some point negative so in theory a stop loss could reduce the strike rate, no stop loss and it keeps dropping off of cliffs, catch 22.
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jkminor1000
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MAGTRADEUK wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:47 pm
the bullshit for me is these damned spikes in prices 4 or 5 mins out ... how you can have a position in the right direction with these things happening is one of the things thats really baffling me again..................
Almost every race today has had 1 of these spikes. I now do absolutely noting until the spike comes in, there was an pattern forming after each spike today across all markets that you could take advantage off, that is until that pattern changes of course... :roll:
MAGTRADEUK
Posts: 144
Joined: Sun May 10, 2020 12:55 pm

HMM Makes me wonder then as its across all markets if it is some kind of bot. I find it more that a bit off putting as I am at a level where I cant compete with this kind of move and am more likely therefore to just stay away from those markets.
kamil2402
Posts: 31
Joined: Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:51 am

To me it feels like the markets are dead, even within the last two minutes and then BAM a large spike comes in, triggering cross matching and thus moving prices in all sorts of directions. It feels very sudden and rather unpredictable.
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The Silk Run
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Location: United Kingdom

jkminor1000 wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:42 pm
MAGTRADEUK wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:47 pm
the bullshit for me is these damned spikes in prices 4 or 5 mins out ... how you can have a position in the right direction with these things happening is one of the things thats really baffling me again..................
Almost every race today has had 1 of these spikes. I now do absolutely noting until the spike comes in, there was an pattern forming after each spike today across all markets that you could take advantage off, that is until that pattern changes of course... :roll:
I haven't looked at horse racing charts for some time now. Before the COVID-19 pandemic I did occasionally monitor the candlesticks on Betfair charts for abnormalities potentially exposing professional gamblers, punters with inside information. It does take time to read before gathering enough confidence to mirror the bet. I don't believe the system is unique with others practising similar methodology.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
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Do you guys instantly start tinkering or do you let it run to capture a bigger data set? My thoughts are instead of using stop losses as such I could use a close trade rule that will close the trade if greater than an average of it's daily losses, the losses that exceed the average account for nearly 50% of it's losses.... is that even correct logic?
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eightbo
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Location: Malta / Australia

James the avg loss is a byproduct of the strategy I don't think it would do much good to feed it back into the criteria.
If your stop-loss bet has edge based on market structure why would you fire a closing bet early at an arbitrary place before stop loss criteria is met as that bet would be -ve EV if you're paying offered price at a random point (mkt doesn't know your P&L)

I've not got any pre-race automation at all & not manually trading it so looking forward to getting a trend bot going when other projects are finalised.
Stop will be fairly straightforward but unsure how to handle the exit atm might have to watch it for a bit and see. How are you approaching your exits?

Unrelated PS Since when was Image considered a swear word? badger
MAGTRADEUK
Posts: 144
Joined: Sun May 10, 2020 12:55 pm

The way these spikes react, are they stop hunters? I always found with stops that they usually fire and take you out of a position then the position reverses. The way these spikes are coming in on some markets these days, they will take out stops that are too tight. I prefer not to use them but base a mental stop depended on volatility of the market being traded.
jamesg46
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Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

eightbo wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:52 pm
James the avg loss is a byproduct of the strategy I don't think it would do much good to feed it back into the criteria.
If your stop-loss bet has edge based on market structure why would you fire a closing bet early at an arbitrary place before stop loss criteria is met as that bet would be -ve EV if you're paying offered price at a random point (mkt doesn't know your P&L)

I've not got any pre-race automation at all & not manually trading it so looking forward to getting a trend bot going when other projects are finalised.
Stop will be fairly straightforward but unsure how to handle the exit atm might have to watch it for a bit and see. How are you approaching your exits?

Unrelated PS Since when was Image considered a swear word? Old Centaur employee
There currently isn't any stop loss criteria, which was done on purpose. The bot simply opens because criteria has been met and greens up at post time, this was why I'm thinking I could set a close trade rule based on the averages I've collected from previous results. I don't like the idea of fixed tick stop losses. Tbh, I'm not sure how to go about it, thanks for the reply eightbo.
Atho55
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Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

You can spend hours looking for a solution re losses when the same time could be allocated to challenging the entry point IMHO...
jamesg46
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Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Atho55 wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:42 am
You can spend hours looking for a solution re losses when the same time could be allocated to challenging the entry point IMHO...
I've been tinkering with the entry point this morning... im afraid though that I might be doing it prematurely. I'll see how it goes today, I've done nothing in regards to stop losses, I've not yet decided how I want to go about it. Cheers Atho :D
wilf
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2016 7:34 pm

Newbury and Doncaster should be good today, it's trading well. There's some good quality horses running.
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

wilf wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 12:22 pm
Newbury and Doncaster should be good today, it's trading well. There's some good quality horses running.
You would think that would produce an above average day.
threedogs
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:24 am

MAGTRADEUK wrote:
Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:59 pm
HMM Makes me wonder then as its across all markets if it is some kind of bot. I find it more that a bit off putting as I am at a level where I cant compete with this kind of move and am more likely therefore to just stay away from those markets.
I love spikes as they present an easy opportunity to make a couple of ticks ...
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