Love your last sentence their, sounds great, but no idea what it means
Today's Horse Racing
It didn't just fall off a cliff, it fell off of many which is ok because I get to explore the negative data. Problem I see is with setting stop losses.... I need to save on those losses somehow but there is a balance to be had, a lot of those positive trades were at some point negative so in theory a stop loss could reduce the strike rate, no stop loss and it keeps dropping off of cliffs, catch 22.
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Almost every race today has had 1 of these spikes. I now do absolutely noting until the spike comes in, there was an pattern forming after each spike today across all markets that you could take advantage off, that is until that pattern changes of course...MAGTRADEUK wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:47 pmthe bullshit for me is these damned spikes in prices 4 or 5 mins out ... how you can have a position in the right direction with these things happening is one of the things thats really baffling me again..................
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HMM Makes me wonder then as its across all markets if it is some kind of bot. I find it more that a bit off putting as I am at a level where I cant compete with this kind of move and am more likely therefore to just stay away from those markets.
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I haven't looked at horse racing charts for some time now. Before the COVID-19 pandemic I did occasionally monitor the candlesticks on Betfair charts for abnormalities potentially exposing professional gamblers, punters with inside information. It does take time to read before gathering enough confidence to mirror the bet. I don't believe the system is unique with others practising similar methodology.jkminor1000 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:42 pmAlmost every race today has had 1 of these spikes. I now do absolutely noting until the spike comes in, there was an pattern forming after each spike today across all markets that you could take advantage off, that is until that pattern changes of course...MAGTRADEUK wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 2:47 pmthe bullshit for me is these damned spikes in prices 4 or 5 mins out ... how you can have a position in the right direction with these things happening is one of the things thats really baffling me again..................
Do you guys instantly start tinkering or do you let it run to capture a bigger data set? My thoughts are instead of using stop losses as such I could use a close trade rule that will close the trade if greater than an average of it's daily losses, the losses that exceed the average account for nearly 50% of it's losses.... is that even correct logic?
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James the avg loss is a byproduct of the strategy I don't think it would do much good to feed it back into the criteria.
If your stop-loss bet has edge based on market structure why would you fire a closing bet early at an arbitrary place before stop loss criteria is met as that bet would be -ve EV if you're paying offered price at a random point (mkt doesn't know your P&L)
I've not got any pre-race automation at all & not manually trading it so looking forward to getting a trend bot going when other projects are finalised.
Stop will be fairly straightforward but unsure how to handle the exit atm might have to watch it for a bit and see. How are you approaching your exits?
Unrelated PS Since when was considered a swear word? badger
If your stop-loss bet has edge based on market structure why would you fire a closing bet early at an arbitrary place before stop loss criteria is met as that bet would be -ve EV if you're paying offered price at a random point (mkt doesn't know your P&L)
I've not got any pre-race automation at all & not manually trading it so looking forward to getting a trend bot going when other projects are finalised.
Stop will be fairly straightforward but unsure how to handle the exit atm might have to watch it for a bit and see. How are you approaching your exits?
Unrelated PS Since when was considered a swear word? badger
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The way these spikes react, are they stop hunters? I always found with stops that they usually fire and take you out of a position then the position reverses. The way these spikes are coming in on some markets these days, they will take out stops that are too tight. I prefer not to use them but base a mental stop depended on volatility of the market being traded.
There currently isn't any stop loss criteria, which was done on purpose. The bot simply opens because criteria has been met and greens up at post time, this was why I'm thinking I could set a close trade rule based on the averages I've collected from previous results. I don't like the idea of fixed tick stop losses. Tbh, I'm not sure how to go about it, thanks for the reply eightbo.eightbo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:52 pmJames the avg loss is a byproduct of the strategy I don't think it would do much good to feed it back into the criteria.
If your stop-loss bet has edge based on market structure why would you fire a closing bet early at an arbitrary place before stop loss criteria is met as that bet would be -ve EV if you're paying offered price at a random point (mkt doesn't know your P&L)
I've not got any pre-race automation at all & not manually trading it so looking forward to getting a trend bot going when other projects are finalised.
Stop will be fairly straightforward but unsure how to handle the exit atm might have to watch it for a bit and see. How are you approaching your exits?
Unrelated PS Since when was considered a swear word? Old Centaur employee
I've been tinkering with the entry point this morning... im afraid though that I might be doing it prematurely. I'll see how it goes today, I've done nothing in regards to stop losses, I've not yet decided how I want to go about it. Cheers Atho
I love spikes as they present an easy opportunity to make a couple of ticks ...MAGTRADEUK wrote: ↑Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:59 pmHMM Makes me wonder then as its across all markets if it is some kind of bot. I find it more that a bit off putting as I am at a level where I cant compete with this kind of move and am more likely therefore to just stay away from those markets.