goat it's simple risk/reward. your pot. reward is 1 Tick and your risk is 14T+.
Your avg risk would be lower no doubt but point is you'd need a high strake rate just to breakeven and an even higher one to produce a consistent return. And the time of your post suggests it was in the 15:00 2m Mdn Hrd which would be 1 of the more volatile mkts of the day generally lowering your strike rate of such a strategy, although I wouldn't recommend that 1T style on any of today's markets unless you've automated it and already have a good Q pos, even then you're probs leaving a lot on the table due to many occasions where price drives through your exit.
I had a win today on a strategy that has a 100 Reward/Risk ratio. Only 25% of stake filled but still enough to make up for long string of losers since last win.
Why don't you be the guy who waits patiently then takes the break of 6.0 to the downside looking for a continued move lower and aim to exit before 6.0 if price rolls over? Alternatively you could use a higher stop say 6.8 if you think a retest of 6 has a good chance of holding. Don't place any takeprofit offer in the market let price drive as low as it wants to and base your exit criteria using price action e.g. if you see price level off and/or start to reverse.
Better proposition for that market type. Whatever you do, try to put the numbers on your side. As a manual trader you have to allow for the odd mistake here and there anyway so always look for a great strategy not just a good one that way you have more breathing room and when the odd thing rips against you isn't as big of a deal.
Today's Horse Racing
Thanks for the advice. It was in fact the Wolv 16:00 6f Hcap, placed at 3mins, volume was high, prices stable, so I thought I had everything in place... but it happens I guess...eightbo wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:04 pmgoat it's simple risk/reward. your pot. reward is 1 Tick and your risk is 14T+.
Your avg risk would be lower no doubt but point is you'd need a high strake rate just to breakeven and an even higher one to produce a consistent return. And the time of your post suggests it was in the 15:00 2m Mdn Hrd which would be 1 of the more volatile mkts of the day generally lowering your strike rate of such a strategy, although I wouldn't recommend that 1T style on any of today's markets unless you've automated it and already have a good Q pos, even then you're probs leaving a lot on the table due to many occasions where price drives through your exit.
I had a win today on a strategy that has a 100 Reward/Risk ratio. Only 25% of stake filled but still enough to make up for long string of losers since last win.
Why don't you be the guy who waits patiently then takes the break of 6.0 to the downside looking for a continued move lower and aim to exit before 6.0 if price rolls over? Alternatively you could use a higher stop say 6.8 if you think a retest of 6 has a good chance of holding. Don't place any takeprofit offer in the market let price drive as low as it wants to and base your exit criteria using price action e.g. if you see price level off and/or start to reverse.
Better proposition for that market type. Whatever you do, try to put the numbers on your side. As a manual trader you have to allow for the odd mistake here and there anyway so always look for a great strategy not just a good one.
I am still in profit for the day, so I shouldn't moan really.
If we imagined the distribution of the best trades to worst trades, the absolute best ones would show up rarely, and as you reduce the time between opportunities arising you head more & more towards the choppy breakeven stuff (and worse) which should generally be avoided. It's not just about the profit there's opportunity cost to breakeven trading e.g. time, money tied up in that trade, use of mental energy, potential stress & it's all unnecessary.
With the time between quality trades in mind, how likely is it that when we first open a market or take any random point in that market, that there is a good trade available? Pretty low. If we want the good stuff we'd do well to assume that the quality of any trades on offer at any current point in time is low, and that if we simply wait a bit, the market will throw up a decent opportunity for us randomly.
If you're already consistently profitable you probably have a good understanding of this concept but for any who are losing I'd strongly advise reducing the number of trades you take until the average quality of each trade is very high and then start to add back in the lower quality stuff from there.
As a manual trader, you can view patience as a part of your edge over other market participants.
With the time between quality trades in mind, how likely is it that when we first open a market or take any random point in that market, that there is a good trade available? Pretty low. If we want the good stuff we'd do well to assume that the quality of any trades on offer at any current point in time is low, and that if we simply wait a bit, the market will throw up a decent opportunity for us randomly.
If you're already consistently profitable you probably have a good understanding of this concept but for any who are losing I'd strongly advise reducing the number of trades you take until the average quality of each trade is very high and then start to add back in the lower quality stuff from there.
As a manual trader, you can view patience as a part of your edge over other market participants.
It was yes, 6.0->4.7 or there abouts
as you mention it, how are you approaching recording bot sessions?
In particular; (i) are you still catching activity if there's a lot of price movement and (ii) do you have any way to switch between concurrent markets?
I managed to set up an AHK script to regularly sort by favouritism/re-centre ladders in conjunction with BA's market auto-switch which sort of addresses the first issue but it's still just a blanket approach which hopes to catch the useful stuff in the net at the end of the day, not hugely effective if running multiple bots at the same time.
I collect Day of the week, Date, Day of Experiment, Week No, Month, Odds Triggered & +/- £.... I enter that manually into an Excel table between races, from there everything else is either sumifs, avgifs & countifs that auto update other tables from the main one I use to enter manual data. I'm not more advanced than that but its not too bad because I'm only running one bot and its on a pc that's doing nothing elseeightbo wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:10 pmas you mention it, how are you approaching recording bot sessions?
In particular, are you still catching activity if there's a lot of price movement and do you have any way to switch between concurrent markets?
I managed to set up an AHK script to regularly sort by favouritism and re-centre the ladders via macro in conjunction with BA's market auto-switch which sort of addresses the first issue but it's still just a blanket approach hoping to catch the useful stuff in the net at the end of the day not great if running multiple bots at the same time.
The reason I've done it that way is because like I've mentioned I can expand the No of ticks as I go, so it can lose in practice mode for as long as it needs but while it does I can collect what sort of spike to expect on a Tuesday in November between odds of 4-5.... from there I can use multiple rules to trigger differently between odds.
I collect market volume etc from the file I use for my manual trading so its not too hard to cross reference what the market structure was like at the time by going back and looking through it.
I actually did amazingly well, that was my only loss, however I feel I may have had my luck side of variance in anticipating direction... Some of my wins I'm thinking if I was on the other side what loss would I have taken?!
Yeah seems data capture would be the way to go. Ideally would be nice to have some reliable method to watch the activity before/during/after my rules fire during testing stages. Like a history list for all runners all prices record at 20ms or something.
I suspect you may find your spikes to be more random than that but all power to you if you find a guy who's predictably spiking the market on his lunchbreak or something. I remember I had bots fading spikes and losing. Iirc it was more effective to read the activity post-spike and decide to go with or against from there.
I suspect you may find your spikes to be more random than that but all power to you if you find a guy who's predictably spiking the market on his lunchbreak or something. I remember I had bots fading spikes and losing. Iirc it was more effective to read the activity post-spike and decide to go with or against from there.
That's irrelevant to you, you're simply at any one time in each market imo trying to be objective in a subjective environment.
I've edited because I've just seen eightbo also responded and it seems we both offered contradicting views. To clear that up, we did and eightbo is right, you should already have an idea of your downside.
My comment was more to do with it being after the fact and you're looking back wondering what your losses would have been.
Agree it's irrelevant, but it's made me think more about risk: reward, which I think is what you're saying with downside...jamesg46 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 7:33 pmThat's irrelevant to you, you're simply at any one time in each market imo trying to be objective in a subjective environment.
I've edited because I've just seen eightbo also responded and it seems we both offered contradicting views. To clear that up, we did and eightbo is right, you should already have an idea of your downside.
My comment was more to do with it being after the fact and you're looking back wondering what your losses would have been.
Nice quote from my boy dante which always stuck with me.
I've taken loads in unnecessary pre-race losses because sometimes I couldn't pull the trigger when the trade failed and I would pay a ridiculous amount in inflation later when I finally accepted the trade failed, sometimes 30ticks or more. Not pulling the trigger when trade fails is same as not defining your exit as both are not capping downside, just one consciously the other not.
Switching to an automatic stop (consistently capping downside) turned the exact same style of trading from losing to profitable.
"where you'll be wrong" being your risk on the trade, based on the premise you had going in.Tom Dante wrote:Strive to enter the market as close as possible to where you'll be wrong.
I've taken loads in unnecessary pre-race losses because sometimes I couldn't pull the trigger when the trade failed and I would pay a ridiculous amount in inflation later when I finally accepted the trade failed, sometimes 30ticks or more. Not pulling the trigger when trade fails is same as not defining your exit as both are not capping downside, just one consciously the other not.
Switching to an automatic stop (consistently capping downside) turned the exact same style of trading from losing to profitable.
