Another option, give me your money and I will give you 10% ROI.
Today's Horse Racing
I do have a wish to succeed as well, not just the money
Did better today with above... except for one trade on a 1.7 odds horse, I think I will avoid <2.0 as they seem too volatile for mesmallplayer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 29, 2020 3:41 pmHi Goat. Maybe try to only enter when the market is paused at some price point. If you do this at the right time, then when the money decides what way it wants it to go, you can either instantly get out asap (ensuring a normal small loss), or try to max the move if it goes your way. Hope this helps somewhat.
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jkminor1000
- Posts: 13
- Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:00 am
Its been highlighted a few times on the thread the last few days that there has been huge spikes occurring pre-off and a good strategy is to hold off and do noting until those spikes arrive. If you use that race as an example and a horse jumps 14 ticks in 2 seconds, well there is going to be opportunities on that horse after that initial big move if you are prepared for it. !!
goat it's simple risk/reward. your pot. reward is 1 Tick and your risk is 14T+.
Your avg risk would be lower no doubt but point is you'd need a high strake rate just to breakeven and an even higher one to produce a consistent return. And the time of your post suggests it was in the 15:00 2m Mdn Hrd which would be 1 of the more volatile mkts of the day generally lowering your strike rate of such a strategy, although I wouldn't recommend that 1T style on any of today's markets unless you've automated it and already have a good Q pos, even then you're probs leaving a lot on the table due to many occasions where price drives through your exit.
I had a win today on a strategy that has a 100 Reward/Risk ratio. Only 25% of stake filled but still enough to make up for long string of losers since last win.
Why don't you be the guy who waits patiently then takes the break of 6.0 to the downside looking for a continued move lower and aim to exit before 6.0 if price rolls over? Alternatively you could use a higher stop say 6.8 if you think a retest of 6 has a good chance of holding. Don't place any takeprofit offer in the market let price drive as low as it wants to and base your exit criteria using price action e.g. if you see price level off and/or start to reverse.
Better proposition for that market type. Whatever you do, try to put the numbers on your side. As a manual trader you have to allow for the odd mistake here and there anyway so always look for a great strategy not just a good one that way you have more breathing room and when the odd thing rips against you isn't as big of a deal.
Your avg risk would be lower no doubt but point is you'd need a high strake rate just to breakeven and an even higher one to produce a consistent return. And the time of your post suggests it was in the 15:00 2m Mdn Hrd which would be 1 of the more volatile mkts of the day generally lowering your strike rate of such a strategy, although I wouldn't recommend that 1T style on any of today's markets unless you've automated it and already have a good Q pos, even then you're probs leaving a lot on the table due to many occasions where price drives through your exit.
I had a win today on a strategy that has a 100 Reward/Risk ratio. Only 25% of stake filled but still enough to make up for long string of losers since last win.
Why don't you be the guy who waits patiently then takes the break of 6.0 to the downside looking for a continued move lower and aim to exit before 6.0 if price rolls over? Alternatively you could use a higher stop say 6.8 if you think a retest of 6 has a good chance of holding. Don't place any takeprofit offer in the market let price drive as low as it wants to and base your exit criteria using price action e.g. if you see price level off and/or start to reverse.
Better proposition for that market type. Whatever you do, try to put the numbers on your side. As a manual trader you have to allow for the odd mistake here and there anyway so always look for a great strategy not just a good one that way you have more breathing room and when the odd thing rips against you isn't as big of a deal.
Last edited by eightbo on Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Thanks for the advice. It was in fact the Wolv 16:00 6f Hcap, placed at 3mins, volume was high, prices stable, so I thought I had everything in place... but it happens I guess...eightbo wrote: ↑Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:04 pmgoat it's simple risk/reward. your pot. reward is 1 Tick and your risk is 14T+.
Your avg risk would be lower no doubt but point is you'd need a high strake rate just to breakeven and an even higher one to produce a consistent return. And the time of your post suggests it was in the 15:00 2m Mdn Hrd which would be 1 of the more volatile mkts of the day generally lowering your strike rate of such a strategy, although I wouldn't recommend that 1T style on any of today's markets unless you've automated it and already have a good Q pos, even then you're probs leaving a lot on the table due to many occasions where price drives through your exit.
I had a win today on a strategy that has a 100 Reward/Risk ratio. Only 25% of stake filled but still enough to make up for long string of losers since last win.
Why don't you be the guy who waits patiently then takes the break of 6.0 to the downside looking for a continued move lower and aim to exit before 6.0 if price rolls over? Alternatively you could use a higher stop say 6.8 if you think a retest of 6 has a good chance of holding. Don't place any takeprofit offer in the market let price drive as low as it wants to and base your exit criteria using price action e.g. if you see price level off and/or start to reverse.
Better proposition for that market type. Whatever you do, try to put the numbers on your side. As a manual trader you have to allow for the odd mistake here and there anyway so always look for a great strategy not just a good one.
I am still in profit for the day, so I shouldn't moan really.
If we imagined the distribution of the best trades to worst trades, the absolute best ones would show up rarely, and as you reduce the time between opportunities arising you head more & more towards the choppy breakeven stuff (and worse) which should generally be avoided. It's not just about the profit there's opportunity cost to breakeven trading e.g. time, money tied up in that trade, use of mental energy, potential stress & it's all unnecessary.
With the time between quality trades in mind, how likely is it that when we first open a market or take any random point in that market, that there is a good trade available? Pretty low. If we want the good stuff we'd do well to assume that the quality of any trades on offer at any current point in time is low, and that if we simply wait a bit, the market will throw up a decent opportunity for us randomly.
If you're already consistently profitable you probably have a good understanding of this concept but for any who are losing I'd strongly advise reducing the number of trades you take until the average quality of each trade is very high and then start to add back in the lower quality stuff from there.
As a manual trader, you can view patience as a part of your edge over other market participants.
With the time between quality trades in mind, how likely is it that when we first open a market or take any random point in that market, that there is a good trade available? Pretty low. If we want the good stuff we'd do well to assume that the quality of any trades on offer at any current point in time is low, and that if we simply wait a bit, the market will throw up a decent opportunity for us randomly.
If you're already consistently profitable you probably have a good understanding of this concept but for any who are losing I'd strongly advise reducing the number of trades you take until the average quality of each trade is very high and then start to add back in the lower quality stuff from there.
As a manual trader, you can view patience as a part of your edge over other market participants.
It was yes, 6.0->4.7 or there abouts