Today's Horse Racing

[PeterLe]

A nice one there in the last race..
I didnt catch it, but my Mrs did..That will pay for her Steam Mop! I do spoil her. Think Id rather have a gadget too!
Talking about gadgets, my 8 year son just asked "Whats a kaleidoscope", I said it what we had before Ipads and Palystations son..!

[steven1976]

A mop? Get her a maid.

[PeterLe]

I might have done if she had back it at the top!
We dont have maids in the Northwest Steve; you know that!

[steven1976]

haha, yeah it's tough up North. Next time tell her to concentrate properly.

[switesh]

Anyone noticed this Big Spender with deep pockets holding the price on the fav in the 6:55 at Epsm.

I'd think this guy would be a bookie. If not, what the heck would he be doing stashing 65k in a betfair account?

I was trying to hit/oppose this flasher with anything I could and got a lousy 1 tick when he shifted back by 2 ticks but no further.

[jimrobo]

yep just sat there and got almost all of it filled. There was about 10k left at the off.

[Euler]

Having a much better day today.

[switesh]

In your recent blog Peter, you mentioned about fill-rate being a bummer compared to volume matched.

Does it mean that people are taking money from the market rather than offering money?

Looking back at those drifts that happened yesterday - I tried to offer money at the bottom but didn't get matched on several occasions while the price flew out faster than the road-runner.

The way I interpret these scenarios is that people jump on the bandwagon by taking best market price and that in effect accelerates the price move while leaving traders that offer money to the market unfilled.

What are your thoughts on this prevailing activity Peter?

-------------------------------------------------------

Also, you mentioned on 'Chart of the Day' thread:

And to think that bookies are payings 10k's for this sort of information to Betfair.

I've got 2 questions for this:

• 1. Does this mean that the game is rigged in favor of bookies?
  2. If bookies already know which way the price is headed then they wouldn't care to offer price to the market. They'd be the ones that suck liquidity from the market by taking money from the market.

[Euler]

Years ago bookies drove the price and people on Betfair copied, then as liquidity increased Betfair took over that mantle. Currently I'm not sure who is the leader. The exchange on Betfair does not get the price correct now, have a look here: -

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=6690&start=550

Such a massive divergence.

But bookies don't tend to hedge on Betfair as they can probably achieve a balanced book without doing that. They probably only dip into the market when needing to balance out a large liability.

I think the Betfair market market is diverging from true chance at the moment and I'm happy to actively bet against that. A consequence of their current strategy is that they still believe their own rhetoric about pricing and using it for their sportsbook, but it's diverging away from reality. In a strange twist, their greatest strength could become their major weak point.

[Euler]

Six cards in the afternoon today, that's going to be a little challenging.

[Iron]

I think the Betfair market market is diverging from true chance at the moment and I'm happy to actively bet against that.

Why do you think that is?

And do you think that the market is still, over thousands of races, accurate at the off?

Jeff

[Zenyatta]

I think the Betfair market market is diverging from true chance at the moment and I'm happy to actively bet against that. A consequence of their current strategy is that they still believe their own rhetoric about pricing and using it for their sportsbook, but it's diverging away from reality. In a strange twist, their greatest strength could become their major weak point.

All the price spikes and price jumping around for no apparent reason, yeah.

Well if you're a form student like me, this actually could be good news. Myself, Jolly and you (Peter) can surely clean up?

We just need the balls to hold our positions and take on the market.

[barlorca]

It is always the same, decide your entry position (starting odds) decide your exit position (exit odds) and acceptable stop loss point (your individual choice).

Simple, basic and easy, some trades you win some trades you lose.

That is the nature of trading.

Moaning doesn't help.

[steven1976]

It is always the same, decide your entry position (starting odds) decide your exit position (exit odds) and acceptable stop loss point (your individual choice).

Simple, basic and easy, some trades you win some trades you lose.

That is the nature of trading.

Moaning doesn't help.

That's an excellent point if you know horse racing and are trading based on research and looking for "swing trades".

I think for anyone that knows horse racing currently is perfect for swing traders. You just have to see the charts immediately after the off on many races to understand they are very, very thin markets and therefore that in itself can offer up some great value for anyone that knows horse racing.

If you are just trading the front of the book then it is a different ball game, so you cant just pick one trade and it can be frustraiting.

[switesh]

Today's racing is quite erratic. Some markets are dry as well.

This chart is from the 3:15 Hcap at Ripon. Very sharp moves/reversals.

The only thing I could read clearly in this trade was the late money. Somebody offered large orders on the back side. I thought it might be spoof, but then saw it moved down by 2 ticks so I joined it. Luckily it persisted to push the price breaking evens, but I was still doubtful all the way if that big order would switch sides any moment.