yes someone was really keen to back the front runner yesterday!Aarondewit wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:31 amSaturday in-play is still OK. The other days are garbage.
No in play bomber on the leader so far today. He was mad last night.
Australian racing
It's been happening quite often. Someone is obviously so confident with their superior vision that they believe that they can pull their bet before anyone else wants to lay the leader if is slows up.rik wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:37 amyes someone was really keen to back the front runner yesterday!Aarondewit wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:31 amSaturday in-play is still OK. The other days are garbage.
No in play bomber on the leader so far today. He was mad last night.
I tested a new bot today, taking uncovered/naked bsp for a fixed payout of $20, given certain conditions. Active in every race in ANZ, had 500 bets in 90 markets.
It had POT after commission of 15%, which is higher than expected. I'll be very happy if it continues at half that return.
ETA: if anyone is interested I'll post tomorrow's results.
ETA2: I'm only offering this up as an exercise because a) there's been some recent chatter in the forum that you can't make money with prop bets and b) it'll show the variance in any model. If you have a losing few days, like GOAT's trading journey (for just one example) should you change your plan? This articular bot had a good day: should I continue or discontinue? What if I was down 15% on the first day/week? Do I have enough information to make decisions going forward?
It had POT after commission of 15%, which is higher than expected. I'll be very happy if it continues at half that return.
ETA: if anyone is interested I'll post tomorrow's results.
ETA2: I'm only offering this up as an exercise because a) there's been some recent chatter in the forum that you can't make money with prop bets and b) it'll show the variance in any model. If you have a losing few days, like GOAT's trading journey (for just one example) should you change your plan? This articular bot had a good day: should I continue or discontinue? What if I was down 15% on the first day/week? Do I have enough information to make decisions going forward?
Last edited by Anbell on Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
Anbell wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:46 amI tested a new bot today, taking bsp for a fixed payout of $20, given certain conditions. Active in every race in ANZ, had 500 bets in 90 markets.
It had POT after commission of 15%, which is higher than expected. I'll be very happy if it continues at half that return.
Fingers crossed for you. I too have a young exploitative bot that has been consistent and performed so far above my expectation in its first 300 activated markets that it must surely just give it all back today.Anbell wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:46 amI tested a new bot today, taking bsp for a fixed payout of $20, given certain conditions. Active in every race in ANZ, had 500 bets in 90 markets.
It had POT after commission of 15%, which is higher than expected. I'll be very happy if it continues at half that return.
And good luck to you.Jukebox wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:08 amFingers crossed for you. I too have a young exploitative bot that has been consistent and performed so far above my expectation in its first 300 activated markets that it must surely just give it all back today.Anbell wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:46 amI tested a new bot today, taking bsp for a fixed payout of $20, given certain conditions. Active in every race in ANZ, had 500 bets in 90 markets.
It had POT after commission of 15%, which is higher than expected. I'll be very happy if it continues at half that return.
The dumbest thing is that I have a reliable, low return bot that I've never looked too closely at it, but I took a closer look the other day and found a simple variable where half the volume showed a significant +ve return (pre-comm) and the other half showed a significant -ve (less a little bit) return.
And hence a new bot was born.
I expect it to be added to the scrap heap soon enough.
(edited)
Last edited by Anbell on Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:56 am, edited 3 times in total.
NZ feeds last night
Matatmata and Otaki
Matatmata and Otaki
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Bots that don't give the return you hoped for and need tweaks that you hope will make the difference is so much the norm that if you hit on something that performs well it can be disconcerting.
Everything is always disconcerting. It's a business in which it always makes sense be cautious.
There was a presentation on the slack channel the other day, and one of the messages was : "Winning runs kill bankrolls" - which I really liked (even though I've been doing this for many years, and never blown out)
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sionascaig
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I'd be interested if you keep on running longer term (not looked at ANZ markets)... My UK & AUS SP bots have really not been doing to well recently - still in profit over 7 months but margins only 1% & 2% atm - was expecting a lot higher..Anbell wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:46 amI tested a new bot today, taking uncovered/naked bsp for a fixed payout of $20, given certain conditions. Active in every race in ANZ, had 500 bets in 90 markets.
It had POT after commission of 15%, which is higher than expected. I'll be very happy if it continues at half that return.
ETA: if anyone is interested I'll post tomorrow's results.
ETA2: I'm only offering this up as an exercise because a) there's been some recent chatter in the forum that you can't make money with prop bets and b) it'll show the variance in any model. If you have a losing few days, like GOAT's trading journey (for just one example) should you change your plan? This articular bot had a good day: should I continue or discontinue? What if I was down 15% on the first day/week? Do I have enough information to make decisions going forward?
Have been doing a paper betting exercise since last year primarily based around placing bets at BSP. The 2 charts represent the results. The upper is Rank based, such as place a Back bet on Rank 2 at this course. The Black and Green lines on the bottom chart are results of both Rank or Odds based from 20 odd pivots that update daily. Between the 2 charts they cover a wide variety of theoretical bet placements. The fortunes look to follow a similar path.Anbell wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:46 amI tested a new bot today, taking uncovered/naked bsp for a fixed payout of $20, given certain conditions. Active in every race in ANZ, had 500 bets in 90 markets.
It had POT after commission of 15%, which is higher than expected. I'll be very happy if it continues at half that return.
ETA: if anyone is interested I'll post tomorrow's results.
ETA2: I'm only offering this up as an exercise because a) there's been some recent chatter in the forum that you can't make money with prop bets and b) it'll show the variance in any model. If you have a losing few days, like GOAT's trading journey (for just one example) should you change your plan? This articular bot had a good day: should I continue or discontinue? What if I was down 15% on the first day/week? Do I have enough information to make decisions going forward?
I was hoping it might shed a bit of light on b)
Good luck
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Lotta feeds last night
Mudgee Boort Colac
Mudgee Boort Colac
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Marburg
I just want to show whats out there etc - will stop pretty soon with the pics.
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