Australian racing

The sport of kings.
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dm1900
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

Anbell wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:18 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:37 am

i'd be interested in seeing what sort of variance you get
Me too!

I'm expecting quite a lot. And that's ok.

The story I'm trying to tell here, in part, is about how I (hopefully) turned a reliable high volume bot from 0.5% return to a 5% return bot. I can reduce stakes to cope with that, or just ride the variance. Or maybe it'll be another one for the scrap heap.
This is an interesting project. What's the strike rate Vs implied strike rate?
Anbell
Posts: 1018
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

dm1900 wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:32 pm
Anbell wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:18 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:37 am

i'd be interested in seeing what sort of variance you get
Me too!

I'm expecting quite a lot. And that's ok.

The story I'm trying to tell here, in part, is about how I (hopefully) turned a reliable high volume bot from 0.5% return to a 5% return bot. I can reduce stakes to cope with that, or just ride the variance. Or maybe it'll be another one for the scrap heap.
This is an interesting project. What's the strike rate Vs implied strike rate?
whats the formula for calculating those?
User avatar
goat68
Posts: 1046
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Anbell wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:18 pm
goat68 wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:37 am

i'd be interested in seeing what sort of variance you get
Me too!

I'm expecting quite a lot. And that's ok.

The story I'm trying to tell here, in part, is about how I (hopefully) turned a reliable high volume bot from 0.5% return to a 5% return bot. I can reduce stakes to cope with that, or just ride the variance. Or maybe it'll be another one for the scrap heap.
i'm watching with interest...
dm1900
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

Anbell wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:41 pm
dm1900 wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:32 pm
Anbell wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:18 pm


Me too!

I'm expecting quite a lot. And that's ok.

The story I'm trying to tell here, in part, is about how I (hopefully) turned a reliable high volume bot from 0.5% return to a 5% return bot. I can reduce stakes to cope with that, or just ride the variance. Or maybe it'll be another one for the scrap heap.
This is an interesting project. What's the strike rate Vs implied strike rate?
whats the formula for calculating those?
Strike rate: how many times were you right?
(Sum of stakes of winning bets)/(sum of all stakes)

Implied strike rate: how many times does market think you should have been right?
For each bet, define X as: (1/odds)*stake
Then calculate implied strike rate as (sum of X for all bets)/(sum of all stakes)


E.g. imagine these are my bets:

£2 @ 4.0, outcome = WIN
£2 @ 3.0, outcome = LOSS
£4 @ 2.0, outcome = WIN

Strike rate: (2+4)/(2+2+4) = 6/8 = 0.75

Implied strike rate = ((1/4 * 2)+(1/3 * 2)+(1/2 * 4 ))/(2+2+4)=0.395

---------------------
Alternative method that doesn't weight by stake size - also useful to calculate.

Actual SR = (number of winning bets)/(total number of bets)

Implied SR = for each bet, compute 1/odds as X. Then market SR is average of X of all bets.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 6460
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Anbell wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:46 am
given certain conditions
Same conditions I use ;)
Anbell wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:46 am
should I continue or discontinue?
I prefer a more non-binary approach, you look at the stats and decide how much you want to spend on buying the next day's raffle ticket. Stake according to confidence rather than just yes or no. Something that's previously performed really well might even be worth running at a small loss to see if it comes back. You need a reasonable R&D budget you expect to burn doing automation otherwise every wobble will throw you off or you'll miss good things that just happened to start in a downward trend. There's no hard and fast rule on this one as far as I can tell from asking around a lot, it really is just experience and personal pain threshold.
Anbell
Posts: 1018
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

dm1900 wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:00 pm
Anbell wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:41 pm
dm1900 wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:32 pm

This is an interesting project. What's the strike rate Vs implied strike rate?
whats the formula for calculating those?
Strike rate: how many times were you right?
(Sum of stakes of winning bets)/(sum of all stakes)

Implied strike rate: how many times does market think you should have been right?
For each bet, define X as: (1/odds)*stake
Then calculate implied strike rate as (sum of X for all bets)/(sum of all stakes)


E.g. imagine these are my bets:

£2 @ 4.0, outcome = WIN
£2 @ 3.0, outcome = LOSS
£4 @ 2.0, outcome = WIN

Strike rate: (2+4)/(2+2+4) = 6/8 = 0.75

Implied strike rate = ((1/4 * 2)+(1/3 * 2)+(1/2 * 4 ))/(2+2+4)=0.395

---------------------
Alternative method that doesn't weight by stake size - also useful to calculate.

Actual SR = (number of winning bets)/(total number of bets)

Implied SR = for each bet, compute 1/odds as X. Then market SR is average of X of all bets.
Thanks.
Total Stake=$2700
Stake of winners=2090

SR=78%
Implied SR=25%

Definitely over-over-performing over the first 1000 bets.
Anbell
Posts: 1018
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:24 am
Anbell wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:46 am
given certain conditions
Same conditions I use ;)
Anbell wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:46 am
should I continue or discontinue?
I prefer a more non-binary approach, you look at the stats and decide how much you want to spend on buying the next day's raffle ticket. Stake according to confidence rather than just yes or no. Something that's previously performed really well might even be worth running at a small loss to see if it comes back. You need a reasonable R&D budget you expect to burn doing automation otherwise every wobble will throw you off or you'll miss good things that just happened to start in a downward trend. There's no hard and fast rule on this one as far as I can tell from asking around a lot, it really is just experience and personal pain threshold.
Cheers ShaunWhite. They were mostly rhetorical questions but the non-binary framing is a useful one. Unfortunately BA doesnt generally allow us to run many experiments simultaneously which is suboptimal
dm1900
Posts: 51
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

Anbell wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:45 am
dm1900 wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:00 pm
Anbell wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:41 pm


whats the formula for calculating those?
Strike rate: how many times were you right?
(Sum of stakes of winning bets)/(sum of all stakes)

Implied strike rate: how many times does market think you should have been right?
For each bet, define X as: (1/odds)*stake
Then calculate implied strike rate as (sum of X for all bets)/(sum of all stakes)


E.g. imagine these are my bets:

£2 @ 4.0, outcome = WIN
£2 @ 3.0, outcome = LOSS
£4 @ 2.0, outcome = WIN

Strike rate: (2+4)/(2+2+4) = 6/8 = 0.75

Implied strike rate = ((1/4 * 2)+(1/3 * 2)+(1/2 * 4 ))/(2+2+4)=0.395

---------------------
Alternative method that doesn't weight by stake size - also useful to calculate.

Actual SR = (number of winning bets)/(total number of bets)

Implied SR = for each bet, compute 1/odds as X. Then market SR is average of X of all bets.
Thanks.
Total Stake=$2700
Stake of winners=2090

SR=78%
Implied SR=25%

Definitely over-over-performing over the first 1000 bets.
Interesting. So you're essentially betting at odds of ~4 which would imply you win 25% of the time, but you're actually winning 78% of the time
Anbell
Posts: 1018
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

dm1900 wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 7:51 am
Anbell wrote:
Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:45 am
dm1900 wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:00 pm


Strike rate: how many times were you right?
(Sum of stakes of winning bets)/(sum of all stakes)

Implied strike rate: how many times does market think you should have been right?
For each bet, define X as: (1/odds)*stake
Then calculate implied strike rate as (sum of X for all bets)/(sum of all stakes)


E.g. imagine these are my bets:

£2 @ 4.0, outcome = WIN
£2 @ 3.0, outcome = LOSS
£4 @ 2.0, outcome = WIN

Strike rate: (2+4)/(2+2+4) = 6/8 = 0.75

Implied strike rate = ((1/4 * 2)+(1/3 * 2)+(1/2 * 4 ))/(2+2+4)=0.395

---------------------
Alternative method that doesn't weight by stake size - also useful to calculate.

Actual SR = (number of winning bets)/(total number of bets)

Implied SR = for each bet, compute 1/odds as X. Then market SR is average of X of all bets.
Thanks.
Total Stake=$2700
Stake of winners=2090

SR=78%
Implied SR=25%

Definitely over-over-performing over the first 1000 bets.
Interesting. So you're essentially betting at odds of ~4 which would imply you win 25% of the time, but you're actually winning 78% of the time
According to my interpretation of your description! ROI is only 15% (pre-comm) though, so I may have misunderstood something along the way.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 10957
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Didn't realise they're so many group races at Randwick.
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