Australian racing

The sport of kings.
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Anbell
Posts: 2004
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

rik wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:54 pm
Anbell wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:22 am
wins/total spend.
Isnt wins/total spend dependent on odds therefore not as telling?
You had 10000 bets at average odds 1.05 and not lose one your at 5% but extremely unlikely variance cause of profit

You bet at average odds 20, 5% don't have to mean much

I guess its best to track several indicators, but my opinion win/loss ratio to measure edge is better as relatively odds independent and having multiple bets per market wont mess up the numbers as much.

You win 110 for every 100 you lose, you shouldn't need too large a sample to be quite sure of an edge, whereas win/total spend could give a wide range
I bet to a fixed amount (e.g. $100) regardless of price, so the returns are not driven by a few 20.0 or 100.0 chances.
Anbell
Posts: 2004
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:11 pm
What's total spent??

I hate it when the GC talk about money "spent" on gambling as though the horse is guaranteed to lose and we're spending the money for the enjoyment of watching the horse lose. :lol:

If you have £1K on a horse and then scratch, true, you've risked losing £1K, but do it again and the total you risked remains at £1K, not £2K, so I've never regarded turnover as an informative figure.
Fair enough. I think talking of 'investing' is a wank too though
dm1900
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:11 pm
What's total spent??

I hate it when the GC talk about money "spent" on gambling as though the horse is guaranteed to lose and we're spending the money for the enjoyment of watching the horse lose. :lol:

If you have £1K on a horse and then scratch, true, you've risked losing £1K, but do it again and the total you risked remains at £1K, not £2K, so I've never regarded turnover as an informative figure.
Actually, profit/turnover is a hugely important metric. You want each of your trades to be done at EV, and you might want to target a certain pnl/turnover ratio to judge the effectiveness of a strategy. You want to make sure that whenever you enter, you're taking at value, and when you scratch you also take value. So if you plot your entry trade profit, and your scratch trade profit, both should be positive in long term. Therefore your profitability should be measured on your total turnover.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

dm1900 wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:45 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:11 pm
What's total spent??

I hate it when the GC talk about money "spent" on gambling as though the horse is guaranteed to lose and we're spending the money for the enjoyment of watching the horse lose. :lol:

If you have £1K on a horse and then scratch, true, you've risked losing £1K, but do it again and the total you risked remains at £1K, not £2K, so I've never regarded turnover as an informative figure.
Actually, profit/turnover is a hugely important metric. You want each of your trades to be done at EV, and you might want to target a certain pnl/turnover ratio to judge the effectiveness of a strategy. You want to make sure that whenever you enter, you're taking at value, and when you scratch you also take value. So if you plot your entry trade profit, and your scratch trade profit, both should be positive in long term. Therefore your profitability should be measured on your total turnover.
I was really just being pedantic and taking issue with the term "spent" as opposed to gambled/traded/turnover. :)
dm1900
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:55 pm
dm1900 wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:45 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:11 pm
What's total spent??

I hate it when the GC talk about money "spent" on gambling as though the horse is guaranteed to lose and we're spending the money for the enjoyment of watching the horse lose. :lol:

If you have £1K on a horse and then scratch, true, you've risked losing £1K, but do it again and the total you risked remains at £1K, not £2K, so I've never regarded turnover as an informative figure.
Actually, profit/turnover is a hugely important metric. You want each of your trades to be done at EV, and you might want to target a certain pnl/turnover ratio to judge the effectiveness of a strategy. You want to make sure that whenever you enter, you're taking at value, and when you scratch you also take value. So if you plot your entry trade profit, and your scratch trade profit, both should be positive in long term. Therefore your profitability should be measured on your total turnover.
I was really just being pedantic and taking issue with the term "spent" as opposed to gambled/traded/turnover. :)
Ahh my apologies for my misunderstanding!
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Good view on my flight today of Mooney Valley with Flemington (aka headquarters) in the background


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Euler
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Last time I was in a plane was nearly two years ago!
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goat68
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dm1900 wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:45 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:11 pm
What's total spent??

I hate it when the GC talk about money "spent" on gambling as though the horse is guaranteed to lose and we're spending the money for the enjoyment of watching the horse lose. :lol:

If you have £1K on a horse and then scratch, true, you've risked losing £1K, but do it again and the total you risked remains at £1K, not £2K, so I've never regarded turnover as an informative figure.
Actually, profit/turnover is a hugely important metric. You want each of your trades to be done at EV, and you might want to target a certain pnl/turnover ratio to judge the effectiveness of a strategy. You want to make sure that whenever you enter, you're taking at value, and when you scratch you also take value. So if you plot your entry trade profit, and your scratch trade profit, both should be positive in long term. Therefore your profitability should be measured on your total turnover.
I love the "value" discussion, so when you say "make sure" you take value, that's just against your "model", which may or may not be correct, so you can't be "sure"...?
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Trader724
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dm1900
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

goat68 wrote:
Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:47 am
dm1900 wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:45 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:11 pm
What's total spent??

I hate it when the GC talk about money "spent" on gambling as though the horse is guaranteed to lose and we're spending the money for the enjoyment of watching the horse lose. :lol:

If you have £1K on a horse and then scratch, true, you've risked losing £1K, but do it again and the total you risked remains at £1K, not £2K, so I've never regarded turnover as an informative figure.
Actually, profit/turnover is a hugely important metric. You want each of your trades to be done at EV, and you might want to target a certain pnl/turnover ratio to judge the effectiveness of a strategy. You want to make sure that whenever you enter, you're taking at value, and when you scratch you also take value. So if you plot your entry trade profit, and your scratch trade profit, both should be positive in long term. Therefore your profitability should be measured on your total turnover.
I love the "value" discussion, so when you say "make sure" you take value, that's just against your "model", which may or may not be correct, so you can't be "sure"...?
Yes against your model. Not just willy nilly you no longer feel like holding a position cus you're seeing red. Which is what a lot of people do and label it "scratching". That is not to undermine the usefulness of a general max loss trigger to exit positions though of course. Then again those should also be determined based on expectations
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Naffman
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gazuty wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:04 am
Naffman wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:58 am
Yep mine keeps saying 'connection was interrupted'
Same (once I do get in).

We are going to need more emojis. 😢🙏
VPS seems gone again
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Naffman wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:48 am
gazuty wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:04 am
Naffman wrote:
Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:58 am
Yep mine keeps saying 'connection was interrupted'
Same (once I do get in).

We are going to need more emojis. 😢🙏
VPS seems gone again
Thanks for the heads up Naffers. I only check in the morning and evening (outside of weekends).
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

We run stuff on Aussie racing, so have something running all the time, but didn't notice anything?
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Euler wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:03 am
We run stuff on Aussie racing, so have something running all the time, but didn't notice anything?
Last Saturday the data centre definitely slowed to a snails pace. Naffers must have picked up that that happened again today.

When it slows dramatically (like last Saturday) what I find is the odd issue near the off or the odd bet misfire. But sometimes it is hard to detect unless you see it live. Like you will have as well, all misfires even out in the long run.
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Naffman
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gazuty wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:15 am
Euler wrote:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:03 am
We run stuff on Aussie racing, so have something running all the time, but didn't notice anything?
Last Saturday the data centre definitely slowed to a snails pace. Naffers must have picked up that that happened again today.

When it slows dramatically (like last Saturday) what I find is the odd issue near the off or the odd bet misfire. But sometimes it is hard to detect unless you see it live. Like you will have as well, all misfires even out in the long run.
Was down just before Gatton r2 if I remember correctly, it just seems to log off almost, my internet connection was stable too
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