Australian racing

The sport of kings.
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Derek27
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Didn't realise Kensington's on tomorrow. I'm hoping it gets abandoned as I've selected tonight as my drinking night this weekend.
eightbo
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@Anbell
Thank you very much for your response, much appreciated
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gazuty
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andy28
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Bets come unstuck in the 3rd at Mackay. Commentator mixed up stablemates and called Cartwright as the leader until 50m out then realise and change it to Sagittarius. Meanwhile Cartwright was backed into 1.01 and Sagittarius got down to 1.14.
RichieT
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andy28 wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:00 am
Bets come unstuck in the 3rd at Mackay. Commentator mixed up stablemates and called Cartwright as the leader until 50m out then realise and change it to Sagittarius. Meanwhile Cartwright was backed into 1.01 and Sagittarius got down to 1.14.
Those central and north QLD tracks are a minefield for racecallers. You'll often get 5 or 6 from the same stable in similar colours and it's so easy to mix them up. I feel like there's a case to introduce US style saddle cloth colours as an extra means of identification.
andy28
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RichieT wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:56 am
andy28 wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 5:00 am
Bets come unstuck in the 3rd at Mackay. Commentator mixed up stablemates and called Cartwright as the leader until 50m out then realise and change it to Sagittarius. Meanwhile Cartwright was backed into 1.01 and Sagittarius got down to 1.14.
Those central and north QLD tracks are a minefield for racecallers. You'll often get 5 or 6 from the same stable in similar colours and it's so easy to mix them up. I feel like there's a case to introduce US style saddle cloth colours as an extra means of identification.
Agree tough job especially in the closing stages, I was more surprised that people blindly followed, I would have thought if you have access to fast pictures you would have some idea of the silks
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Derek27
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Aussie dollar's the highest it's been for a year.
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gazuty
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat May 07, 2022 12:42 am
Aussie dollar's the highest it's been for a year.
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Bodes well for my visit to London at end of year.
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Derek27
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Scone appears to be put back 10 minutes.
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gazuty
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat May 14, 2022 1:46 am
Scone appears to be put back 10 minutes.
Thanks Derek (had to reload the day again). :)
Aarondewit
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Fast picture guys are going even harder at leaders. Leaders are often 1/2 - 1/3 of SP before you can see on Sky who is leading. The fast picture guys are taking all the lay money and then sitting out. Obviously they have found a big edge. With crazy in play price flucs you used to often get SP about leaders early on. That is long gone. As in play participants are dropping out, in play % are going through the roof.
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Euler
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I remember watching the evolution of in-play in the UK. People used to watch till the horse had almost won to back it. But as the market got more competitive they started going earlier and earlier and eventually it became value to lay at 1.01.
eightbo
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Aarondewit wrote:
Sun May 15, 2022 6:32 am
Fast picture guys are going even harder at leaders. Leaders are often 1/2 - 1/3 of SP before you can see on Sky who is leading. The fast picture guys are taking all the lay money and then sitting out. Obviously they have found a big edge. With crazy in play price flucs you used to often get SP about leaders early on. That is long gone. As in play participants are dropping out, in play % are going through the roof.
Always interesting to hear your thoughts Aaron

Some doors may have closed, but others are newly open
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Naffman
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eightbo wrote:
Sun May 15, 2022 9:46 am
Aarondewit wrote:
Sun May 15, 2022 6:32 am
Fast picture guys are going even harder at leaders. Leaders are often 1/2 - 1/3 of SP before you can see on Sky who is leading. The fast picture guys are taking all the lay money and then sitting out. Obviously they have found a big edge. With crazy in play price flucs you used to often get SP about leaders early on. That is long gone. As in play participants are dropping out, in play % are going through the roof.
Always interesting to hear your thoughts Aaron

Some doors may have closed, but others are newly open
I second that, hope you're doing alright despite this.

Like Peter said, I imagine if they continue to be so aggressive it might be worth it taking the other side eventually.
Aarondewit
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eightbo wrote:
Sun May 15, 2022 9:46 am
Aarondewit wrote:
Sun May 15, 2022 6:32 am
Fast picture guys are going even harder at leaders. Leaders are often 1/2 - 1/3 of SP before you can see on Sky who is leading. The fast picture guys are taking all the lay money and then sitting out. Obviously they have found a big edge. With crazy in play price flucs you used to often get SP about leaders early on. That is long gone. As in play participants are dropping out, in play % are going through the roof.
Always interesting to hear your thoughts Aaron

Some doors may have closed, but others are newly open
Leaders are definitely way over bet. Liquidity is poor though so when they have had their big back bet there's often very little left in the market to do anything with. Rather than push the odds out for other horses, market % will just move to 130-150%. It used to stay around 110-120% until the straight when the crazy starts. This probably makes sense as the fast picture edge is just too much. I don't see a lot of obvious bot activity anymore. There used to be a few bots you could easily trigger.

I thought in-play liquidity would improve over time but it has become worse from when I started in 2016. I am past PC-2 levels mostly from in-play so I probably haven't helped as beaten participants who exit the market are not really being replaced. Prior to last year there seemed to be a steady stream of 'mugs' having a go.
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