Australian racing

[Derek27]

Hi All,

I'm new to trading so wanted throughts on the following - hopefully this is the right forum.

Tomorrows Geelong Cup - Tralee Rose very strong favourite - Lay $30 @ 2.30 liab of around $40

Back it for the Melbourne Cup $30 @ 30 = $925.

If it loses (in a big field) tomorrow you break even minus some comission.

If it wins then it's likely its odds halve so you can either trade to freeroll for something like $200 - $500 or take a small profit whatever floats your boat. Many winners of the Geelong Cup have gone on to win the Melbourne Cup.

Worst case scenario - it wins but gets injured on the line. 2nd worst is that it gets scratched before tomrrows race - you are out $30 on the cup?

Thoughts....

If it wins and halves for the Melbourne, you lose $40 on the Geelong and your trade on the Melbourne only gains $30 in value, so any gain is lost in the cost of insuring your stake money.

[gazuty]

Hi All,

I'm new to trading so wanted throughts on the following - hopefully this is the right forum.

Tomorrows Geelong Cup - Tralee Rose very strong favourite - Lay $30 @ 2.30 liab of around $40

Back it for the Melbourne Cup $30 @ 30 = $925.

If it loses (in a big field) tomorrow you break even minus some comission.

If it wins then it's likely its odds halve so you can either trade to freeroll for something like $200 - $500 or take a small profit whatever floats your boat. Many winners of the Geelong Cup have gone on to win the Melbourne Cup.

Worst case scenario - it wins but gets injured on the line. 2nd worst is that it gets scratched before tomrrows race - you are out $30 on the cup?

Thoughts....

If it wins and halves for the Melbourne, you lose $40 on the Geelong and your trade on the Melbourne only gains $30 in value, so any gain is lost in the cost of insuring your stake money.

Derek has nailed it here. You want the reverse scenario. You want it to lose the Geelong Cup, collect $30 (ignoring comms) and now you have a "free bet" on the cup. You now cash out on the cup and you are ahead.

Now you need to do an E(x) which should be as follows:

E(x) = [Result if win] * probability of win + [Result if lose] * probability of loss

Result if win

You lose $40 on Geelong Cup. Odds on Melbourne Cup halve to 15. $925/15 = $61 then subtract $30 initial bet and hence you collect $31. You are down ($9).

Result if lose

You win $30 on the Geelong Cup. Odds on Melbourne Cup blow out to 80. $925/80 = $11.56 then subtract initial bet and you are down ($18.44). You are up $11.56

E(x) = ($9) * 0.43 + $11.56 * 0.57
E(x) = ($3.87) + $6.58
E(x) = $2.71

So looks ok (while not every scenario covered). And the biggest unknown is the odds movement on the Melbourne Cup post result, together with injuries etc

A lot of faffing about for $2.71 of value. After comms this could be zero. And then there are edge cases that I haven't covered that could reduce the $2.71 further. (Eg. in the result "if lose scenario" if the odds on the Melbourne cup blow out beyond 135 the E(x) turns negative).

////

And it won, so its the result if win. You'd have to jump ahead of the 17 on offer right now for the MC assuming you are not taking the 34.

Capture.PNG

[PapaShango]

Seems like a lot of faffing about for a few cents, and if it runs really badly you might not even be able to lay the 80 anyway.

Might as well just decide whether or not you fancy it for the geelong cup and back or lay accordingly.

Or if you wanted to try and nick a few dollars/cents, watch the race on the fastest feed possible with your mouse hovering over the selection you expect to shorten/drift in the MC depending on how it runs in the geelong.

[PDC]

Was going to review the numbers later. So that's interesting.

Did you run the numbers?

I saw this data earlier:

Key metrics from Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup last Saturday - domestic wagering turnover $143m (new record) up 11% YoY (2020 $129m, 2019 $97.5m). Heavy 8 v Soft 6 (2 upgrades this year). Starters 106 v 112 LY (down 5.4%)

Total domestic turnover for the 3 days of the Carlton Draught Caulfield Cup Carnival was $297m up 12.4% YoY (2020 $264m, 2019 $215m).

[PapaShango]

Didn’t read gazutys post properly this morning. Didn’t realise race had already been run. Bit late trying to be fastest finger now lol

[agog]

Just a general query. Are the Australian markets strong/liquid enough to trade pre-off?

[PDC]

Just a general query. Are the Australian markets strong/liquid enough to trade pre-off?

999 pages of discussion might be a clue read a few pages to get an idea

[Derek27]

Hi All,

I'm new to trading so wanted throughts on the following - hopefully this is the right forum.

Tomorrows Geelong Cup - Tralee Rose very strong favourite - Lay $30 @ 2.30 liab of around $40

Back it for the Melbourne Cup $30 @ 30 = $925.

If it loses (in a big field) tomorrow you break even minus some comission.

If it wins then it's likely its odds halve so you can either trade to freeroll for something like $200 - $500 or take a small profit whatever floats your boat. Many winners of the Geelong Cup have gone on to win the Melbourne Cup.

Worst case scenario - it wins but gets injured on the line. 2nd worst is that it gets scratched before tomrrows race - you are out $30 on the cup?

Thoughts....

If it wins and halves for the Melbourne, you lose $40 on the Geelong and your trade on the Melbourne only gains $30 in value, so any gain is lost in the cost of insuring your stake money.

Derek has nailed it here. You want the reverse scenario. You want it to lose the Geelong Cup, collect $30 (ignoring comms) and now you have a "free bet" on the cup. You now cash out on the cup and you are ahead.

Now you need to do an E(x) which should be as follows:

E(x) = [Result if win] * probability of win + [Result if lose] * probability of loss

Result if win

You lose $40 on Geelong Cup. Odds on Melbourne Cup halve to 15. $925/15 = $61 then subtract $30 initial bet and hence you collect $31. You are down ($9).

Result if lose

You win $30 on the Geelong Cup. Odds on Melbourne Cup blow out to 80. $925/80 = $11.56 then subtract initial bet and you are down ($18.44). You are up $11.56

E(x) = ($9) * 0.43 + $11.56 * 0.57
E(x) = ($3.87) + $6.58
E(x) = $2.71

So looks ok (while not every scenario covered). And the biggest unknown is the odds movement on the Melbourne Cup post result, together with injuries etc

A lot of faffing about for $2.71 of value. After comms this could be zero. And then there are edge cases that I haven't covered that could reduce the $2.71 further. (Eg. in the result "if lose scenario" if the odds on the Melbourne cup blow out beyond 135 the E(x) turns negative).

////

And it won, so its the result if win. You'd have to jump ahead of the 17 on offer right now for the MC assuming you are not taking the 34.


Capture.PNG

Masterful analysis, as you'd expect from Gazuty.

[lotora]

Anyone else notice that every now and then "take SP" on Australian racing doesn't work?

[Euler]

I've not seen this issue but if the amounts are low, sometimes Betfair will not resolve the SP. There is a lower limit at which they will not match at SP.

[Anbell]

Anyone else notice that every now and then "take SP" on Australian racing doesn't work?

I've posted this 100 times already, but there is a hierarchy for BSP and TakeSP does not literally mean "turn this bet into an SP bet"

There is a hierarchy where BSP bets are 1st, then (I think) BSP limit, then (I think) TakeSP

[PDC]

Anyone else notice that every now and then "take SP" on Australian racing doesn't work?

Post the actual details and it will be much easier for people to figure out what is going wrong for you. There will be a reason but without the details it is near impossible to see what the reason is.

[PDC]

Moone Valley has been okay but a bit below my expectations. Though I think that may be more down to my performance than the markets tbh. How did others find it?

[lotora]

Anyone else notice that every now and then "take SP" on Australian racing doesn't work?

I've posted this 100 times already, but there is a hierarchy for BSP and TakeSP does not literally mean "turn this bet into an SP bet"

There is a hierarchy where BSP bets are 1st, then (I think) BSP limit, then (I think) TakeSP

Thanks! Yes I've seen it debated before. This question was more about how often it happens...And then my next question would be something like what's your solution.

[PDC]

my next question would be something like what's your solution.

Without the details of the question, i.e. what bets you are actually trying to place that aren't working, it is very hard to provide the answer.