If its using the home/away +1 markets there are some files here already set up which should save you some timesniffer66 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 7:06 pmThanks for this Archery. You have me intruiged. Just started looking at how to predict the + 1 draw odds and have worked it out. Going to set up a little bot to test thisArchery1969 wrote: ↑Mon May 09, 2022 2:45 pmI thought I would add this to this thread instead of creating a new one.
So, LTD plus 0-0 insurance.
This often fails these days as the markets have moved on and nobody really knows the ideal time to implement this strategy. Is it before kickoff, during the first half, at halftime or during the second half.
Well, now we can work it out when all the stars align so to speak. A word of warning, it only works if the game is 0-0 and not 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3 etc.
In the picture you can see 4 additional columns, i will refer to them as Columns A to D:
Column A = Price required (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals) all this is is the current draw lay odds + 100% - 1
Column B = The expected draw odds if the home team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column C = The expected draw odds if the away team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column D = The correct score 0-0 odds (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals)
When column B and column C and column D are greater than or equal to column A, you do the following:
Lay the draw in match odds market with a 100% offset with greeening
Back 0-0 in the correct score market with a 100% offset with greening (1.01)
If a goal is scored by either team or the game finishes 0-0 then you are guaranteed a profit. The situation (odds) occurs for a short period of time, usually a couple of minutes. The only time you can lose is if Betfair forget to unsuspend the market when a goal is scored. It happens!!!
It depends on the teams strengths as to when the situation occurs in the game, with evenly matched teams then it happens sooner, with teams not evenly matched then it happens much later, so keep that in mind.