Lay the Draw & Green Up after a Goal by Checking 0-0 CS

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gullsfan
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:25 pm

Hi sorry I mean lay those scorellines in the correct score market
gullsfan
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:25 pm

ie if it is 0-1 or 1-0 at half time
goldfinch77
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:45 am

Dallas,

Have read through all on here, can't find anything.

Is there any way I can configure this bot to green up after 2 goals instead of the first 1

Andy
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Dallas
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goldfinch77 wrote:
Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:32 am
Dallas,

Have read through all on here, can't find anything.

Is there any way I can configure this bot to green up after 2 goals instead of the first 1

Andy
You could but with a Lay the Draw strategy if the second goal is by the other team you'll be in a losing position as the draw odds will now be higher than where they started
were you aware of this?
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Dallas
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gullsfan wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:54 pm
Hi sorry I mean lay those scorellines in the correct score market
gullsfan wrote:
Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:55 pm
ie if it is 0-1 or 1-0 at half time
Sorry I missed this earlier, if you are still looking to do this then this post explains the easiest way
viewtopic.php?f=61&t=22158
goldfinch77
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:45 am

goldfinch77 wrote: ↑
Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:32 am
Dallas,

Have read through all on here, can't find anything.

Is there any way I can configure this bot to green up after 2 goals instead of the first 1

Andy You could but with a Lay the Draw strategy if the second goal is by the other team you'll be in a losing position as the draw odds will now be higher than where they started
were you aware of this?


Dallas, Yes I am looking at matches where I can back 1-1 from the start and lay the draw with green on second goal if its 2-0 or 0-2.

Hope that makes sense.
gullsfan
Posts: 9
Joined: Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:25 pm

Thanks for the reply - I'll take a look
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shakey1964
Posts: 118
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Location: Usually in my truck

Hi all
I dont post on here at all but have returned with a renewed interest and found this automation interesting. I wrote a blog post yesterday and tested this on two specific games last night in practice mode
Without linking my blog on here I have copied it and pasted it below.
There is a significant flaw in this plan that I am not sure new comers will realise and involves the non-favourite scoring first and have copied the results blog below the origional
I hope this helps anyone who might get a bit confused as to why, when a goal is scored the lay bet is still in negative
The copy and paste has not included the pictures on my post so I hope I have explained myself enough without needing them



Laying the Draw and Trading Out after the First Goal (If there is one 😱)
In this post I will be looking in depth into a popular football bet/trade “lay the draw” This bet/trade is only available to exchange users as you are betting that the match does not end in a draw. Laying or betting against an outcome of a football match, horse race or any other sporting and political event puts many punters off as the liability can be quite substantial because in effect you are acting as bookmaker to a “bet placer” for instance a losing lay bet of 6.0 at £10.00 would cost you £50.00 to the winner of the bet. Laying the draw can be somewhat safer as there is usually a winner in a football match and usually at least one team scores. If we look at a “Crowd Allowed” season of results ie a non-chinese bat flu season, 18/19 for instance there were less than 6% of games that ended 0-0 in the premier league, that is just 22 games out of 380. This of course doesn’t include score draws but all I am interested in is the games where at least one goal was scored.
If we look at the score draws for the same season (18/19) there were 32 1-1 draws 15 2-2’s, and 2 3-3’s making a total of 71 score and no-score draws.
The odds on a match draw behave with unerring predictability. From when the match kicks off the odds of a draw steadily decrease down to 1.01 at ful time unless a goal is scored whereby the odds jump with varying degrees depending on which team score. If the favourite scores first and early in the game then the draw odds will jump significantly allowing a profitable trade to be reaped. If however the “underdog” scored first and were the away side then the draw odds would not move much if at all.
To illustrate this, and with the kind permission of the support staff at Betangel, the following screen shots utilise the “soccer mystic” feature of their software.
I am using the match between PSG and Lille tonight where PSG are odds on favourites to win at 1.41 at the time of writing.



Soccer Mystic quite accurately predicts the odds of football matches when goals are scored and in the screenshot above you can see that if Lille were to score first in the first 15 minutes then the draw odds would actually go DOWN instead of up as in the case of PSG scoring first. This tells us that if this were the case then the market would believe that a draw was even more likely to happen than if there were no goals scored. Trading out after the first goal then would, in this case, be extremely detrimental to the health of our betfair account balance. These odds however would slowly decrease still until perhaps 2/3 of the game and only then would they start to increase slowly during the match so long as PSG didn’t score. How likely is that???
This is illustrated by the graph shown below (another great feature of soccer mystic)

Click pic to enlarge in a new screen
It would actually take about 50 minutes of game time before the odds began to move favourably and 82 minutes before we could look at taking a profit. This is of course if PSG dont score a goal in the meantime.
This is a worst case scenario and the purpose of this post is to determine whether or not laying the draw is a viable strategy. “Blanket” laying all the 3’oclock Saturday premiership fixtures in any one week to a £10.00 stake would need an account balance in excess of £200.00 and that is just for the 5 games usually kicking off at this time.
How then can we reliably hope to make a profit from this strategy. The answer is research.
If we take tonight’s fixture between QPR and Nottingham Forest the odds of the draw are 3.6 to make a straight lay bet which will create a £26.00 liability for our £10.00 stake. (this means we would win £10.00 for a result other than a draw or if the game ended level we would lose £26.00)
If we remember that we are going to trade out our bet after the first goal we can look at the average times that these two teams scored their first goals. The following screenshot is from Soccerstats.com and shows the timings of goals both for and against when the teams were playing at home and away respectfully.


We can see that both teams score most of their goals in the second half but QPR do like to concede in the first half having 71% of goals scored against them this season happen in the first 45 minutes. Both teams have scored in all of their respective home and away games so we can tentatively look at what profit we can gain from laying this draw and trading out or “greening” once a first goal has been scored by either team. Betangel will be our guide for this again and the match is covered by soccer mystic. Using the predicted odds feature, if the first goal was scored by QPR then the odds would rise to about 5.1 to 5.2 up to the 60th minute which would give us a greened up profit of about £3.00 for our £10.00 stake. If Nottingham were to score first then our profit would levitate at about £1.60 in the same time frame. After 60 minutes, apart from the rusty starfish starting to clench due to the diminishing number of minutes left, our profit equalises if either team scores reaching a dizzying £8.97 profit in minute 90 – At this point you would cancel the trade instruction and take your tenner hoping against hope that the opposition didn’t score.
In this instance I will be testing a downloadable file from the betangel forum in practice mode which will automatically place a lay bet at kick off and trade out for an equal profit/loss, if and when the first goal is scored. I will post the resulting conclusion here after the match.

And the results Blog post


I highlighted 2 matches yesterday in the post Laying the Draw and Greening Up after a goal The first was PSG - Odds on Favourite to annihilate Lille in Paris and QPR v Notts Forest -an evenly matched championship game between 2 mid-ish table sides with QPR being home favourites by just a small margin. Foolishly I forgot to note the odds of the QPR game but as I noted above one side was odds on (1.41) and the other an evenly matched game.
PSG eventually won the game 2-1 but not before Lille scored first in the 31st minute. As I was trading out of the lay bet after the first goal the scenario outlined in the post came to fruition and the software greened up the bet for a loss of £6.93. I did no research on this match and while PSG eventually won with 2 late goals and a straight lay bet would have won this is not the point of the exercise.
The other game where I did do a little research and concluded that there would be a likelihood of a goal being scored and a profit if either team scored first did come out with a small 83p profit. This game ended 1-1 with each goal being scored in added time of each half (QPR scored first in the 45+5 minute and Notts Forest equalising in the 90+1 minute. A straight lay the draw bet on this game would have been cruelly lost at the very end of the game.
Along with these 2 games I also included the 4 Dutch games played last evening also without research and the following happened
Den Bosch v Jong FC Utrecht
47p Profit
2-1 Den Bosch scored first in the 19th Minute

Emmen v VVV Venlo
£3.33 Profit
1-0 Emmen scored in the 62nd minute

FC Volendam v FC Dordrecht
£1.11 Loss
4-2 FC Dordrecht scored in the 8th minute

MVV Maastricht v Roda JC
£48.00 Loss
0-0 OUCH!!!

I am not put off by these turn of events and this only goes to show that research and testing is key to the conundrum.

Todays Premiership games have already been loaded into Betangel and I will be posting later on my research into these matches
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shakey1964
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The following post is some research I have done this morning specific to this automation and unfortunately ghas no piccys again sorry

Laying The Draw and Trading Out after the First Goal – Research
The first Premiership game today is the mid-table clash between Leicester City and Arsenal. The Odds for Leicester are 2.5, Arsenal 3.0 and to Lay the draw the lay odds are 3.75. There has been at least one goal scored in the past 9 games where these two sides have met with just one 1-1 draw in July 2020. This season neither team have scored in the first 15 minutes of the game with Leicester preferring to wait until after the 30th minute to get on the score card. Arsenal, away, have only scored once this season and have conceded at least one goal in each 15 minute time segment. Leicester have scored in all but one of their home games this season only losing to nil against Manchester City. They have also scored 2 or more goals in the last 4 of their matches (Home and Away). Arsenals Away record is dismal but leicster have conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 8 matches giving hope that at least 1 goal will be scored. The odds for over 0.5 goals is 1.06 suggesting strongly that the market expects.


Click Pic to enlarge in a new Window
After opening “Soccer Mystic” in the Betangel software and putting 30 minutes into the time of first goal we can see that a profit would be gained if either team scored.

Alphabetically Burnley v Brentford is the first 3pm fixture and the odds are similar to the Leicester v Arsenal game earlier in the day. Burnley are slight favourites at 2.76 and Brentford a few ticks higher at odds of 2.96. To lay the draw odds of 3.35 are on offer. Burnley have conceded in all of their home games this season apart from the 0-0 draw against Norwich City. Brentford also have a 0-0 score line against Crystal Palace but have scored in all of their other 3 away games. Both teams have scored in the first 15 minutes but Brentford have the edge with 4 of their seasons goals coming in the first half. With no previous meetings of these two teams there are no head to head stats.


Click pic to enlarge in a new window
Again after loading the relevant information into Soccer Mystic we see that there would be a slightly better return if the form of Brentford ran true and scored in the 16th minute. A few quid lower liability also makes this an attractive trade.

Liverpool v Brighton is next under the spotlight and with Liverpool knocking at Chelsea’s door in top spot are clear favourites to win this with odds of 1.27. Brighton however, in the same fixture last season , beat Liverpool 0-1! Liverpool have scored first in 3 out of 4 of their last home games whereas Brighton have just one opening goals from the same number of away games (4) Using soccerstats opening goals table we can see that Liverpool’s average time of scoring first is 40 minutes at home and when they did concede first it was in the 22nd minute. Brighton’s only opening goal when away was in the 90th minute and their average conceding time was 24 minutes.


Click pic to enlarge in a new window
After putting an average time of 40 minutes into Soccer Mystic a first goal by Brighton at this point would have the same result as Lille last night against PSG but the difference here is that after looking back at Lille’s Stats they scored first on no fewer than 4 times out of 7 matches. Confident of a Liverpool opening goal this trade looks good on reflection the level of profit just depends on the timing of the goal.

Another outrageously short “odded” Manchester City host Crystal Palace this afternoon in the 3rd 3pm kick-off and going straight to the first goal time table and see that Manchester have scored 3 opening goals at home this season at an average time of 9 minutes and have not conceded a first goal at home at all this season. A good omen. Crystal Palace have conceded a total of 5 goals in the first half away this season and scored none and Manchester City have scored a total of 6 goals this season at home conceding none.
Putting 9 minutes into Soccer Mystic produces the following figures.


click pic to enlarge in a new window
A very high liability in relation to the other matches today does reflect the probability of a draw happening but hopefully the stats will bare out and quite a healthy profit can be made. But remember nothing is without risk.

Top team Chelsea travel to Newcastle today in the penultimate 3pm premiership game today. This might be a slightly more dangerous match to lay the draw on as an early goal by the hosts would see the bet “greening” red! They have opened the scoring 3 times at home this season with an average time of 21 minutes and when they did concede first this came in the 13th minute. Chelsea have yet to concede a first goal when away but have an average opening goal time later in the game than Newcastle at the 33rd minute. A total of 4 goals being scored in the first half at home this season might suggest a “quick score strategy” and hope the opposition don’t counter. This of course wouldn’t happen in this case as Chelsea would come back with vengeance but the damage would be done to our trade. Putting this scenario into Soccer Mystic tells the story


While there seems to be little doubt about a goal in this game the distinct danger is that it will be the home side – not a good thing for this trade.

Back to some sort of normality as far as odds go comes the final 3pm kick-off between Watford and Southampton. The bookies favourite is Southampton with odds of 2.32 but home side advantage and Watford's opening goal record at home may sway. The assurance of at least one goal by either side is borne out by the fact that 11 goals have been scored in total over 3 games involving these two teams pitted against teams level or lower in the premiership. Watford have no “clean sheets” this season at home so if we populate Soccer Mystic with Watford’s Opening goal timing of 10 mins we get the following scenarios.


The final game today will have to wait as I have to go out soon.
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shakey1964
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Lay The Draw and Trade out after the First Goal. The Results
The automation files for this trade performed without a hitch and a profit was made even though Manchester City floundered badly losing 2-0 to Crystal Palace.
The lunchtime kick-off was between Leicester City and Arsenal and as we lunched at the Greyhound Inn at Milton Malsor, Arsenal scored in the 5th minute. At 12:36 Betangel detected the goal and duly placed a back bet into the draw market 25 miles away from where I was tucking into my Gammon Egg and Chips and the first trade was settled for a profit of £1.28 whatever the outcome of the game after 90 mins.


Click pic to enlarge in a new Window

Click pic to enlarge in a new window
The two screenshots above show, firstly, how the bets were placed and secondly the timings, stake, market and odds of each lay and back bets. Nothing in the research predicted the outcome of this match apart from there being at least 1 goal scored which was enough as soccer mystic indicated that which ever side scored first we would see a profitable trade being made.
The second researched game was the Burnley v Brentford game at 3pm. As mentioned in the research there were no previous meetings of these two sides so it all came down to this seasons form in the goals department and again the research bore no resemblance to the actual match played as Burnley opened the scoring after 4 minutes.


Click pic to enlarge in a new window

Click Pic to enlarge in a new window
£2.10 was the profit taken from this trade but whether it was a VAR factor or a betfair operative going to sleep the market did not become unsuspended for 5 minutes after a somewhat confusing 11 minutes of the game kicking off either way a goal caused the market to move in our favour and a successful trade was executed 11 minutes after the official time of the goal.

Early goals seemed to be the trend yesterday as Liverpool opened their account with a 4th Minute goal from Henderson creating a £4.05 profit for us. 2 minutes after the goal went in the odds of the draw had risen to 12.0 and Betangel duly placed a back bet into the market of £5.83 which was matched 6 minutes and 36 seconds


Click pic to enlarge in a new Window

Click pic to enlarge in a new window
Total profit so far £7.43

The only losing trade was the Manchester City v Crystal Palace fixture, where, after 6 minutes the second worst thing after a goalless match happened, Crystal Palace scored!! The resulting back bet placed, unemotionally, by betangel made a £9.09 LOSS. This was a slightly better outcome than the scenario projected by Soccer Mystic of a £10.74 loss after a Crystal Palace first goal but at least the bookies are opening the Bolanger this morning.


Click pic to enlarge in a new window

Click pic to enlarge in a new window
In contrast to the other games so far it took Chelsea 65 minutes to score the first goal in this game and this gave us the largest profit of the day after backing the draw at odds of 9.4. This made the trade profit at £5.01. I am beginingg to wonder if this is fun or heart failure provoking 🤣.


Click pic to enlarge in a new window

Click pic to enlarge in a new window
Che Adams opened the scoring in the Watford v Southampton game 10 minutes after our research suggested. This resulted in our trade making £2.69 profit and as the half time whistles echoed around the grounds we were £1.03 in profit.


Click pic to enlarge in a new Window

Click pic to enlarge in a new window
Total profit for all researched matches after Chelsea’s 65th Minute Goal came to £6.04
It would be unfair for me not to point out that Laying the draw on the five 3pm games at a stake of £10.00 would need a betfair balance of £250.00.
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Dallas
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When using the lay the draw strategy you should be targeting matches with two equally matched teams (and where goals are expected of course) so that the draw odds increase in a similar way no matter which team scores first.

The more unbalanced a match is at KO the more this will effect the draw odds following a goal, until you get to matches with a strong fav and these are best left alone by this strategy, unless its quite late in a match a goal from the under dog will always cause the draw odds shorten further and put you in a even greater.

Its something which has cropped up a few times in some of the other lay the draw threads on here over the years including this one from just a few days ago
viewtopic.php?f=50&t=11309&start=162
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dldtaylor
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Hi Dallas. Firstly, I would just like to say thanks for the effort you put into providing people like myself with automation files. It certainly doesn't go unnoticed.

I'm working on this bot, however for some reason it is not greening up after a goal. It has just been trading a match where the under dog scored, so it should have redded up with a small loss. Could it be related to the ' 'odds' for the event >40' condition in the Green Goal rule? If so, I would be grateful if you could explain this condition. Would it make a difference if the odds-on favourite had scored instead of the under dog? TIA
FrankArch
Posts: 158
Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2021 10:05 am

great bit of kit but when I've been using it recently there seems to always still be odds below 40 available to back for 0-0 even when the score is 1-0 and has been for 10 mins. The lay box is empty. is there any other way of knowing when a goal has been scored within automation.
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Dallas
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FrankArch wrote:
Sun Sep 04, 2022 2:02 pm
great bit of kit but when I've been using it recently there seems to always still be odds below 40 available to back for 0-0 even when the score is 1-0 and has been for 10 mins. The lay box is empty. is there any other way of knowing when a goal has been scored within automation.
You can check if the O/U0.5 market is closed
ie, trigger a stored value rule on this market using a 'Market Status' condition to test it is closed

Then on the green up rule use a 'Stored Value Set' condition to test if the SV from above is set
FrankArch
Posts: 158
Joined: Mon Nov 01, 2021 10:05 am

great thanks
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