Lay the Draw with Correct Score Insurance Guardian Automation Bot

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Dallas
Posts: 18710
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

sniffer66 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:06 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 2:45 pm
I thought I would add this to this thread instead of creating a new one.

So, LTD plus 0-0 insurance.

This often fails these days as the markets have moved on and nobody really knows the ideal time to implement this strategy. Is it before kickoff, during the first half, at halftime or during the second half.

Well, now we can work it out when all the stars align so to speak. A word of warning, it only works if the game is 0-0 and not 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3 etc.

In the picture you can see 4 additional columns, i will refer to them as Columns A to D:

Column A = Price required (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals) all this is is the current draw lay odds + 100% - 1
Column B = The expected draw odds if the home team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column C = The expected draw odds if the away team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column D = The correct score 0-0 odds (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals)

Now:

When column B and column C and column D are greater than or equal to column A, you do the following:

Lay the draw in match odds market with a 100% offset with greeening
Back 0-0 in the correct score market with a 100% offset with greening (1.01)

If a goal is scored by either team or the game finishes 0-0 then you are guaranteed a profit. The situation (odds) occurs for a short period of time, usually a couple of minutes. The only time you can lose is if Betfair forget to unsuspend the market when a goal is scored. It happens!!!

It depends on the teams strengths as to when the situation occurs in the game, with evenly matched teams then it happens sooner, with teams not evenly matched then it happens much later, so keep that in mind.

Have fun,
Thanks for this Archery. You have me intruiged. Just started looking at how to predict the + 1 draw odds and have worked it out. Going to set up a little bot to test this :)
If its using the home/away +1 markets there are some files here already set up which should save you some time
viewtopic.php?f=66&t=20285
Archery1969
Posts: 1594
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Best league to run what I put above on is currently French League 2 and pick evenly matched games. But of course that might all change next season etc.
sniffer66
Posts: 1086
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Dallas wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:18 pm
sniffer66 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:06 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 2:45 pm
I thought I would add this to this thread instead of creating a new one.

So, LTD plus 0-0 insurance.

This often fails these days as the markets have moved on and nobody really knows the ideal time to implement this strategy. Is it before kickoff, during the first half, at halftime or during the second half.

Well, now we can work it out when all the stars align so to speak. A word of warning, it only works if the game is 0-0 and not 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3 etc.

In the picture you can see 4 additional columns, i will refer to them as Columns A to D:

Column A = Price required (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals) all this is is the current draw lay odds + 100% - 1
Column B = The expected draw odds if the home team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column C = The expected draw odds if the away team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column D = The correct score 0-0 odds (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals)

Now:

When column B and column C and column D are greater than or equal to column A, you do the following:

Lay the draw in match odds market with a 100% offset with greeening
Back 0-0 in the correct score market with a 100% offset with greening (1.01)

If a goal is scored by either team or the game finishes 0-0 then you are guaranteed a profit. The situation (odds) occurs for a short period of time, usually a couple of minutes. The only time you can lose is if Betfair forget to unsuspend the market when a goal is scored. It happens!!!

It depends on the teams strengths as to when the situation occurs in the game, with evenly matched teams then it happens sooner, with teams not evenly matched then it happens much later, so keep that in mind.

Have fun,
Thanks for this Archery. You have me intruiged. Just started looking at how to predict the + 1 draw odds and have worked it out. Going to set up a little bot to test this :)
If its using the home/away +1 markets there are some files here already set up which should save you some time
viewtopic.php?f=66&t=20285
Cheers Dallas. Found your other one predicting the draw price already 👍
Came up as the 2nd or 3rd result on Google 😁
sniffer66
Posts: 1086
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Archery1969 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 9:00 pm
Best league to run what I put above on is currently French League 2 and pick evenly matched games. But of course that might all change next season etc.
Cheers. Was curious if it was league dependent, given you should be in profit if the numbers line up
Archery1969
Posts: 1594
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

sniffer66 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 9:19 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 9:00 pm
Best league to run what I put above on is currently French League 2 and pick evenly matched games. But of course that might all change next season etc.
Cheers. Was curious if it was league dependent, given you should be in profit if the numbers line up
How are the +1 Draw Odds calculated from ? Another market ?
sniffer66
Posts: 1086
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Archery1969 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 9:27 pm
sniffer66 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 9:19 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 9:00 pm
Best league to run what I put above on is currently French League 2 and pick evenly matched games. But of course that might all change next season etc.
Cheers. Was curious if it was league dependent, given you should be in profit if the numbers line up


How are the +1 Draw Odds calculated from ? Another market ?
Yeah, assuming it works ok, Dallas has posted baf's that work out the +1 draw price for home and away using the handicap markets.
Is that what you were using ?
Archery1969
Posts: 1594
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

sniffer66 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 10:12 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 9:27 pm
sniffer66 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 9:19 pm


Cheers. Was curious if it was league dependent, given you should be in profit if the numbers line up


How are the +1 Draw Odds calculated from ? Another market ?
Yeah, assuming it works ok, Dallas has posted baf's that work out the +1 draw price for home and away using the handicap markets.
Is that what you were using ?
Yeah but I thought you said you knew how to calculate the Home +1 Draw and Away +1 Draw odds without using those markets or did i miss-understand ?
sniffer66
Posts: 1086
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Sorry, I did mean via the handicap markets.
sniffer66
Posts: 1086
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Well, I think that's it automated, managed a single baf as well, applied to all required markets. Let's give it a run out....



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