Lay the Draw with Correct Score Insurance Guardian Automation Bot

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dragonsfire1981
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:27 am

https://imgur.com/a/76PtfRx

It's in the MO file in the bottom rule- I was trying to figure out the mechanisms of how it all works. I think I sort of understand how its triggered- the spreadprofits signal from "Store profit after greening" is then applied. It then looks like another laybet is applied to the draw using the green profit- so 80% of the profits is placed on this laybet after greening I take it?


Dallas wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:54 pm
dragonsfire1981 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:46 pm
Interesting looking strategy- thanks for the upload!

I'm going to reduce stakes to about 25p, 50p or £1 whilst I test it.

Apart from the stake size in Laydraw in MO file, there's nothing else I need to change? I saw a betamount parameter in the CS file, though wasn't sure what that was linked to - or is this for the automatic calculation that takes an appropriate stake according to the stake set in Laydraw?

Also can you explain a little more about moving 80% of the profits on H+A teams- so you're greening up but in the general tab it shows you're placing a laybet on the away team only?
Sorry missed this one from a few days ago

You only need change the stakes on the LTD rule, the other is calculated for you from that.

Can you post a screenshot of the part you are referring to for that last part?
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dragonsfire1981
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:27 am

It has been firing today actually, not sure why it didn't work yesterday though I did it on a whim at the end of the night. My edited version has been firing too though it's been placing very small stakes for the 0-0 CS.

The "Store liability after laying the draw" rule on the MO file appears to be a multiple of something, though in your previous reply to someone else it sounds more like an absolute figure for the stored liability used to calculate the stake for the CS 0-0?

What I'm trying to do is reduce everything proportionately, so that the Draw odds vs 0-0 criteria are reduced to 3x (this seems to have worked though i set it to 3.2) and you only cover 50 to 75% of the stake/liability if the match ends 0-0.

When I reduced the "Store liability after laying the draw" to 0.25- and main stake for lay the draw to £1 I was expecting it to use a 25p stake for the 0-0 CS however it came up with a 5p stake instead, this is what the log shows. I'm trying to get my head around how this all fits together. Because this last value is by default 25, if I reduce it to 12.5 will that produce a 50% 0-0 CS stake instead?

MO file log
24/09/2020 10:58:00: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: MOmarketgood = 1
24/09/2020 10:58:00: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: drawodds = 3.5 * 3.2 = 11.2
24/09/2020 10:59:01: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: odds = 3.5 - 1 = 2.5
24/09/2020 10:59:01: [G_Auto] : £ 1.00 Lay bet placed on The Draw at 3.55. Fully matched at 3.5. Ref: 10001
24/09/2020 10:59:16: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: liability = 2.5 * 0.25 = 0.625
24/09/2020 11:00:12: Guardian has detected that the market is in-play
24/09/2020 11:00:12: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
24/09/2020 11:00:13: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended

CS file log
24/09/2020 10:58:31: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: CSmarketgood = 2
24/09/2020 10:59:31: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: backprice = 14 - 1 = 13
24/09/2020 10:59:31: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: betamount = 0.625 / 13 = 0.048
24/09/2020 10:59:46: [G_Auto] : £ 0.05 Back bet placed on 0 - 0 at 14. Fully matched at 14. Ref: 10003

Dallas wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:58 pm
dragonsfire1981 wrote:
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:45 pm
If I set the main LTD stake to £1, I should set the number to 0.25 in the stored liability if I'm also going to allow it to lose 50% of stake if it finishes at 0-0 right?

Currently testing it. I've also reduced the criteria in draw criteria to 3.2 as well. Doesn't seem to be firing, will post a log a little later.
Dallas wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 12:03 pm


Anything within the files can be changed, to amend the stake so that you could lose half if it ends 0-0 go onto the MO file
and on the 'store liability after laying the draw' rule edit the stored value named 'liability' to 50% of the stake being used on that rule

By default its set to £25 as is the stored value, so you'd change the stored value to 12.50
The strategy is one that a few users have requested, its not something I've used myself.
All the calculations, the amounts of liability and odds criteria used were as per the instructions so I can't confirm if making those changes would leave you exposed somewhere.

Probably better to test in PM with larger stakes just in case the lower labilities mess up the calculations
Archery1969
Posts: 3192
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Hi,

I have, potentially, found an edge which could be built into this bot using stored values and you don't need to worry about which team scores first.

1. Games to select is where the Correct Score -> 0-0 Back Price is >= 12.
2. Dont worry about the price of either team to win, its taken care of elsewhere, see below.

Markets

- Match Odds
- Correct Score
- Home Team +1
- Away Team +1

Rules

1. Correct Score -> 0-0 -> Back Price is >= Match Odds -> Draw -> Back Price + 100%
2. Home Team + 1 -> Draw Odds -> Back Price is >= Match Odds -> Draw -> Back Price + 100%
3. Away Team + 1 -> Draw Odds -> Back Price is >= Match Odds -> Draw -> Back Price + 100%

However, there is a limited timeframe of opportunity which normally occurs on average for around 2/3 minutes from the 45+ minute mark onwards if the above rules are ALL valid.

The only problem I can forsee is if you initially put the lay bet on and the event gets suspended and never gets unsuspended again before another goal go in. Therefore, i would pick big profile events to help negate this, although that means fcuk all with BF running things.

I suggest you paper trade it first.

Have fun,
McLevin
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:09 am

Hi Dallas,

Seeking some advice on how to implement a back CS 0-0 at half time when to mitigate the LTD at KO damage?
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

McLevin wrote:
Mon Oct 18, 2021 12:41 am
Hi Dallas,

Seeking some advice on how to implement a back CS 0-0 at half time when to mitigate the LTD at KO damage?
In what way do you want to mitigate it? in almost all cases you could just green up or trade out part of the stake on the LTD market without needing to use the CS
Carthorse
Posts: 11
Joined: Sun Feb 08, 2015 5:05 pm

Good chance to use this one tonight in the Bodo Glimt v Celtic game
0-0 is at 25 and Draw 4.2
thepressure
Posts: 160
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2021 11:01 am

Just found this, looks interesting, but do you ever see 0-0 5x the price of the draw odds ????
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

thepressure wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 6:12 pm
Just found this, looks interesting, but do you ever see 0-0 5x the price of the draw odds ????
From memory when setting this up they are quite rare, so it would be a case of applying to lots of matches with the expectation it will only trigger on a handful over a busy weekend
Archery1969
Posts: 3192
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

I thought I would add this to this thread instead of creating a new one.

So, LTD plus 0-0 insurance.

This often fails these days as the markets have moved on and nobody really knows the ideal time to implement this strategy. Is it before kickoff, during the first half, at halftime or during the second half.

Well, now we can work it out when all the stars align so to speak. A word of warning, it only works if the game is 0-0 and not 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3 etc.

In the picture you can see 4 additional columns, i will refer to them as Columns A to D:

Column A = Price required (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals) all this is is the current draw lay odds + 100% - 1
Column B = The expected draw odds if the home team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column C = The expected draw odds if the away team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column D = The correct score 0-0 odds (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals)

Now:

When column B and column C and column D are greater than or equal to column A, you do the following:

Lay the draw in match odds market with a 100% offset with greeening
Back 0-0 in the correct score market with a 100% offset with greening (1.01)

If a goal is scored by either team or the game finishes 0-0 then you are guaranteed a profit. The situation (odds) occurs for a short period of time, usually a couple of minutes. The only time you can lose is if Betfair forget to unsuspend the market when a goal is scored. It happens!!!

It depends on the teams strengths as to when the situation occurs in the game, with evenly matched teams then it happens sooner, with teams not evenly matched then it happens much later, so keep that in mind.

Have fun,
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sniffer66
Posts: 1666
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Archery1969 wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 2:45 pm
I thought I would add this to this thread instead of creating a new one.

So, LTD plus 0-0 insurance.

This often fails these days as the markets have moved on and nobody really knows the ideal time to implement this strategy. Is it before kickoff, during the first half, at halftime or during the second half.

Well, now we can work it out when all the stars align so to speak. A word of warning, it only works if the game is 0-0 and not 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3 etc.

In the picture you can see 4 additional columns, i will refer to them as Columns A to D:

Column A = Price required (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals) all this is is the current draw lay odds + 100% - 1
Column B = The expected draw odds if the home team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column C = The expected draw odds if the away team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column D = The correct score 0-0 odds (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals)

Now:

When column B and column C and column D are greater than or equal to column A, you do the following:

Lay the draw in match odds market with a 100% offset with greeening
Back 0-0 in the correct score market with a 100% offset with greening (1.01)

If a goal is scored by either team or the game finishes 0-0 then you are guaranteed a profit. The situation (odds) occurs for a short period of time, usually a couple of minutes. The only time you can lose is if Betfair forget to unsuspend the market when a goal is scored. It happens!!!

It depends on the teams strengths as to when the situation occurs in the game, with evenly matched teams then it happens sooner, with teams not evenly matched then it happens much later, so keep that in mind.

Have fun,
Thanks for this Archery. You have me intruiged. Just started looking at how to predict the + 1 draw odds and have worked it out. Going to set up a little bot to test this :)
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Dallas
Posts: 22672
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Location: Working From Home

sniffer66 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:06 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 2:45 pm
I thought I would add this to this thread instead of creating a new one.

So, LTD plus 0-0 insurance.

This often fails these days as the markets have moved on and nobody really knows the ideal time to implement this strategy. Is it before kickoff, during the first half, at halftime or during the second half.

Well, now we can work it out when all the stars align so to speak. A word of warning, it only works if the game is 0-0 and not 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3 etc.

In the picture you can see 4 additional columns, i will refer to them as Columns A to D:

Column A = Price required (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals) all this is is the current draw lay odds + 100% - 1
Column B = The expected draw odds if the home team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column C = The expected draw odds if the away team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column D = The correct score 0-0 odds (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals)

Now:

When column B and column C and column D are greater than or equal to column A, you do the following:

Lay the draw in match odds market with a 100% offset with greeening
Back 0-0 in the correct score market with a 100% offset with greening (1.01)

If a goal is scored by either team or the game finishes 0-0 then you are guaranteed a profit. The situation (odds) occurs for a short period of time, usually a couple of minutes. The only time you can lose is if Betfair forget to unsuspend the market when a goal is scored. It happens!!!

It depends on the teams strengths as to when the situation occurs in the game, with evenly matched teams then it happens sooner, with teams not evenly matched then it happens much later, so keep that in mind.

Have fun,
Thanks for this Archery. You have me intruiged. Just started looking at how to predict the + 1 draw odds and have worked it out. Going to set up a little bot to test this :)
If its using the home/away +1 markets there are some files here already set up which should save you some time
viewtopic.php?f=66&t=20285
Archery1969
Posts: 3192
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Best league to run what I put above on is currently French League 2 and pick evenly matched games. But of course that might all change next season etc.
sniffer66
Posts: 1666
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Dallas wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:18 pm
sniffer66 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 7:06 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Mon May 09, 2022 2:45 pm
I thought I would add this to this thread instead of creating a new one.

So, LTD plus 0-0 insurance.

This often fails these days as the markets have moved on and nobody really knows the ideal time to implement this strategy. Is it before kickoff, during the first half, at halftime or during the second half.

Well, now we can work it out when all the stars align so to speak. A word of warning, it only works if the game is 0-0 and not 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3 etc.

In the picture you can see 4 additional columns, i will refer to them as Columns A to D:

Column A = Price required (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals) all this is is the current draw lay odds + 100% - 1
Column B = The expected draw odds if the home team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column C = The expected draw odds if the away team scores a goal (This will increase as the match progresses with no goals)
Column D = The correct score 0-0 odds (This will decrease as the match progresses with no goals)

Now:

When column B and column C and column D are greater than or equal to column A, you do the following:

Lay the draw in match odds market with a 100% offset with greeening
Back 0-0 in the correct score market with a 100% offset with greening (1.01)

If a goal is scored by either team or the game finishes 0-0 then you are guaranteed a profit. The situation (odds) occurs for a short period of time, usually a couple of minutes. The only time you can lose is if Betfair forget to unsuspend the market when a goal is scored. It happens!!!

It depends on the teams strengths as to when the situation occurs in the game, with evenly matched teams then it happens sooner, with teams not evenly matched then it happens much later, so keep that in mind.

Have fun,
Thanks for this Archery. You have me intruiged. Just started looking at how to predict the + 1 draw odds and have worked it out. Going to set up a little bot to test this :)
If its using the home/away +1 markets there are some files here already set up which should save you some time
viewtopic.php?f=66&t=20285
Cheers Dallas. Found your other one predicting the draw price already 👍
Came up as the 2nd or 3rd result on Google 😁
sniffer66
Posts: 1666
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Archery1969 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 9:00 pm
Best league to run what I put above on is currently French League 2 and pick evenly matched games. But of course that might all change next season etc.
Cheers. Was curious if it was league dependent, given you should be in profit if the numbers line up
Archery1969
Posts: 3192
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

sniffer66 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 9:19 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 9:00 pm
Best league to run what I put above on is currently French League 2 and pick evenly matched games. But of course that might all change next season etc.
Cheers. Was curious if it was league dependent, given you should be in profit if the numbers line up
How are the +1 Draw Odds calculated from ? Another market ?
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