Lay the Draw with Correct Score Insurance Guardian Automation Bot

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Dallas
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This is a Guardian automation file for use on soccer markets, I seen a topic sometime ago on this forum (if i find the link i'll add it here) so any credit to the underlying stratergy shown needs to go to that user but there was a few who asked if it could be automated and its been in my to do for some time.

The purpose of this bot is to lay the draw with an insurance back bet on 0-0 to cover the liability on the draw, so if the match ends 0-0 you will break even as the loss (liability) on the draw will be covered by your 0-0 bet.

If a team scores it will green up the lay the draw trade and then move 80% of those profits onto the home and away teams, this should leave just enough on the draw to cover the loss from the lost 0-0 trade.
So, even if it now ends up being a draw you will break even give or take a small amount, but if either team wins then you will make a profit.

For this to work there needs to be a pre-match criteria (this has all been built into the rules so you can just apply the bots to all markets and it will only trigger on the fixtures fitting the required criteria – saving a lot of time manually looking).

Criteria
Both teams should be evenly matched with the fav >2.10
Draws should be <4.0
0-0 should be greater than 5 x the draw odds

Before explaining how it works I should point out that this is a much more complex file than I usually post and is aimed more at intermediate to advance automation users and demonstrates a way to daisy chain rules together with signals and use Stored values to extract information from one market and pass it to another


How it Works

There are two files to download at the bottom of this post, one is to be applied to the Match Odds (MO) Market the other the Correct Score (CS) Market as shown in the following image

Guardian.jpg


The rules of the files will begin triggering 2mins before KO so you must have them applied to your markets before this time.

The first rule in each file is called ‘Criteria’ and the first to trigger in the Match Odds market, this is a Set/Modify Stored Value rule, this has 2 fixed odds conditions to test if the favourite and draw odds meet the price criteria. If they do it stores a value named ‘MOmarketgood’ on the ‘Event’.
It will also store the value of the lay price of the draw with the name ‘drawodds’ for the event with an adjustment of multiplied by 5.
(storing values on the event allows them to be passed from one market to another within that event).

The second rule to trigger is in the Correct Score market, this is also called ‘Criteria’ and is a Set/Modify Stored Value rule, this has two Stored value conditions, first to test if the value named ‘MOmarketgood’ is set (ie, the prices in the match odds market pass the criteria).
Then to test if the back price of the 0-0 market is greater than the stored value named ‘drawodds’ (remember the draw odds x5 was stored from the MO market).
If both those conditions are satisfied, then this criteria rule can trigger, and it will store a value named ‘CSmarketgood’ on the event. (which can be used by the bot on the match odds market).

The Lay the Draw rule on the match odds market is the next rule to trigger providing the stored value named ‘CSmarketgood’ is set.
If not that means the criteria of the CS market wasn’t met so no bets will be placed this market.
If that stored value is set this rule can place a lay bet on the draw, it will also store the value named ‘odds’ with the draw odds minus 1, the next rule called ‘Store liability after laying the draw’ will store a value named ‘liability’ by multiplying the previous stored value named ‘odds’ by 10.

Effectively those last two rules have just layed the draw and calculated the liability from the bet and saved it as a stored value (named ‘liability’).
That is the last of the rules in that file until a goal is scored in-play, next it goes back to the CS file and the ‘Calculation of Stake’ rule, which is another stored value rule that will work out the required staked needed to back 0-0.

It does this by first storing the back price of 0-0 with an adjustment of minus 1 with the name ‘backprice’, then it will store a value named ‘betamount’ by dividing the stored value named ‘liability’ by the stored value named ‘backprice’.

The next rule in this file places a back bet on 0-0, on the parameters tab instead of using any sort of fixed stake it places a stake equal to the stored value named ‘betamount’.

The final rule here then stores the back price of 0-0 every 10secs throughout the matched with a stored value named ‘goalless’
The remaining rules in the match odds market are for when a goal is scored.

The ‘Green Up After a Goal’ rule uses a Stored Value Condition to test the stored value named ‘goalless’ is less than 30 (ie, the back price of 0-0 is below 30.0, if not it means a goal has been scored and therefore its time to green up). This rule also sets a signal named ‘greened’ on the selection ehen it triggers.

The Store Profits after greening rule has a few conditions, the number of unmatched bets on selection is zero, the back price is equal to the lay price minus 1 tick (ie, there are no gaps in the prices) and a ‘Signal Changed Condition’ to test there has been a at least 30 secs since the green up rule triggered.

It also stores the value of the profit minus 20% (so leaves 80%) with the name ‘profit’ as well as two other values similar to what the earlier lay the draw and liability on the draw rules did earlier and uses these to derive the stake amount needed to move 80% of the profits off the draw.
The final rule of ‘Move 80%’ profits uses a stored value stake named ‘stake’ to place a lay bet of that amount on the draw.

The end result being you now have around 20% on the draw which should cover the losses from the CS market (should the match still end in a draw), but if either team win you will have increased profits.


Using the Files

To use the file just click on the following LTD with CS Insurance (MO) and LTD with CS Insurance (CS).baf and this will download them to your computer, then with guardian open on the "Automation" tab click "Import a Rules File" as shown in the image, once imported it will now appear in the drop-down box just above, you can now apply them to any markets you have added into guardian.
Once you have it imported into your Guardian the stake size along with any other aspects of this file can be edited very easily by clicking on "Edit Rules File".

With any automation bot always run in practice mode first to ensure everything is working fine, and repeat this each time you make any changes.

To see a video tutorial on how to download and import an automation file into your Bet Angel please see this link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7Im4pj683g
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Diacritical Quark
Posts: 175
Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:55 pm

This looks very interesting, thanks Dallas

I haven't traded any football for a long time, I saw a thread not so long ago about VAR messing up automation, I see there's a few unsuspended time conditions around 65s, just so I've got this right in my brain... market suspended> goal scored> market unsuspended> odds change to reflect > VAR rules goal out > market suspended > odds change back to what they were?

Is that how it works or does it remain suspended the WHOLE time until the VAR check is complete?

**Don't worry, seems it's the first one :lol:
stevedrake1962
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:38 pm

Hello Dallas.
If my research on first half performance looks good I want to LTD during half-time but I will do so only if the match is already 0-0 or 1-1.
Using the criteria in your “Football: Lay the Draw with correct score insurance Guardian automation bot” can this be adapted for the bot to start it’s processing at half-time?
Thank you
Steve.
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

stevedrake1962 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:03 pm
Hello Dallas.
If my research on first half performance looks good I want to LTD during half-time but I will do so only if the match is already 0-0 or 1-1.
Using the criteria in your “Football: Lay the Draw with correct score insurance Guardian automation bot” can this be adapted for the bot to start it’s processing at half-time?
Thank you
Steve.
Yes, it could be edited to do that, i'm not sure if the odds will be such that the insurance bet would cover it fully so you may need to tweek that part.

But the other changes you'll need to do is arm all the rules after 'criteria' to trigger at HT, you'll also need another to duplicate the 'score 0-0' rule in the CS file and set it to monitor the 1-1 score line and create an new stored value name - maybe name it 'onedraw' (dupicate it by highlighting the 0-0 rule and click the icon with 2 green arrows).

Then in the MO file you'll need to duplicate thw the 'green up after goal rule' and edit the stored value condition to test for the stored value named 'onedraw' or whatever you called it

that should do it, but as with all edits always run it in practice mode first until you know its fully working as you want
RJM
Posts: 9
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 1:55 pm

Thank you very much Dallas for providing these files.

Your are so kind and helpful to everybody on this forum.

I used a very similar system years ago manually so, I am looking forward having a play with this one.
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wearthefoxhat
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Dallas, thanks once again. More learning to do after Cheltenham... 8-)
acecard
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:39 pm

So strange..........came across the original thread with this idea only a few hours ago!

Here is the link to the original thread if anyone is interested:

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=16344

Thanks for the file Dallas!!!

AC
acecard
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:39 pm

I guess the only issue with this is the case that, with evenly matched teams, the draw odds don't really move enough relative to the KO odds when a team scores, meaning you won't have any profits to redistribute. I was watching a game yesterday where there was no goal until after HT. The draw odds rose of course, but only went back up to the KO odds. If you hold out, you're then at risk of the other team getting one back, finishing at 1-1 and losing both the insurance and the lay.
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murdok
Posts: 151
Joined: Sun Apr 02, 2017 7:10 pm

I don't know what's going on but I went to test this rule and in 33 games it didn't fire a single time ,
and there were a few games that met the conditions for that :?
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ScouseBeard
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:57 pm

I had the same problem. Placed the bot in all Friday's football matches (approx. 80 games) and it never reacted once. I'm currently trying to lower the odds in the criteria sections to see if that helps get it started.
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Dallas
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murdok wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:08 am
I don't know what's going on but I went to test this rule and in 33 games it didn't fire a single time ,
and there were a few games that met the conditions for that :?
It sounds like you may not be refreshing the markets fast enough in Guardian, the following post explains how Guardian cycles and refreshes markets and ways you can best configure it to give your rules the best chance of triggering
viewtopic.php?f=37&t=11491
Dipstick
Posts: 116
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:08 pm

Linked to this, does anyone have any way of accurately identifying when a goal is scored? I have tried using the method proposed by Dallas (and I’m definitely not criticising Dallas) around using the situation where the odds move over 20 or 30. That just doesn’t seem to work – notably in low turnover markets (~£7k) where the Fat Finger traders are looking to make a buck. As an example here is part of the log for the Dover vs Chesterfield market on Saturday. Kick off at 3 with goal one scored at 80 mins and one at 89 mins. After the first goal, the odds on 0-0 went from 1.5 to 4 and then took over a minute to get to 10.5. Then on the second goal, it took the odds 5 minutes to rise from only 13 to 100.
Note that this example is one of several that I could have used.
What methods do others use?
Thanks
Dipstick

14/03/2020 16:38:01: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: goalless = 1.5
14/03/2020 16:38:01: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
14/03/2020 16:38:11: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: goalless = 4
14/03/2020 16:38:32: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: goalless = 10.5
----
14/03/2020 16:46:49: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: goalless = 13
14/03/2020 16:46:53: Guardian has detected that the market is suspended
14/03/2020 16:46:57: Guardian has detected that the market is now unsuspended
14/03/2020 16:46:59: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: goalless = 1.5
14/03/2020 16:47:41: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: goalless = 9.8
14/03/2020 16:48:01: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: goalless = 10.5
14/03/2020 16:51:58: [G_Auto] : Store Value (Shared) for event: goalless = 100
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murdok
Posts: 151
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Dallas wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:33 pm

It sounds like you may not be refreshing the markets fast enough in Guardian, the following post explains how Guardian cycles and refreshes markets and ways you can best configure it to give your rules the best chance of triggering
viewtopic.php?f=37&t=11491
it seems to me that I have well configured refreshing markets , today I ve done 3 games and none trigger and games are within the parameters

I will test more games to see what's going on
;)
HailRed
Posts: 13
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:45 am

Hi, What if the game finishes 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3?. Is that not a loss?
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Dallas
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HailRed wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:13 pm
Hi, What if the game finishes 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3?. Is that not a loss?
No, you are trading not betting so will have greened up after the first goal
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