Poisson Distribution for Predicting Draws

[ArticalBadboy]

Hello all, hope you are well.

In the last BetAngel Youtube Video ("Football Betting Tips | How to predict the outcome of a football match - The ultimate guide!") - 7th Aug 2022, Peter mentioned how Poission distributions undervalues the draw correct scores.
Can anyone tell me what mathmatical model prices draws more accuratley please?

Kind Regards
ABB

[Euler]

The message was to predict them separately or after you have predicted the home and away scores.

So ignore them initially and fit them to the other scores.

https://youtu.be/ayLUEe6Y1JY

[ArticalBadboy]

Thank you...much appreciated

[ArticalBadboy]

Is the spreadsheet from the "How to Predict a Draw in Football" video available on the forum?
Thank you

[colecameron]

I have built a Poisson distribution model (more sophisticated then Peters) which is more accurate and I am looking at applying it as an automation strategy. Do you know how to allow betangel to interact with a spreadsheet? I can share the spreadsheet if you are interested.

[avs_kz]

I have built a Poisson distribution model (more sophisticated then Peters) which is more accurate and I am looking at applying it as an automation strategy. Do you know how to allow betangel to interact with a spreadsheet? I can share the spreadsheet if you are interested.

can you share with spreadsheet? i am interested

[Derek27]

I have built a Poisson distribution model (more sophisticated then Peters) which is more accurate and I am looking at applying it as an automation strategy. Do you know how to allow betangel to interact with a spreadsheet? I can share the spreadsheet if you are interested.

If you read the Excel integration part of the manual, it explains how to connect BA with a BA Excel template. You can easily add your spreadsheet to the template in a separate sheet, then either use Excel functions or VBA code to place bets based in the values in your spreadsheet.

[colecameron]

I have built a Poisson distribution model (more sophisticated then Peters) which is more accurate and I am looking at applying it as an automation strategy. Do you know how to allow betangel to interact with a spreadsheet? I can share the spreadsheet if you are interested.

If you read the Excel integration part of the manual, it explains how to connect BA with a BA Excel template. You can easily add your spreadsheet to the template in a separate sheet, then either use Excel functions or VBA code to place bets based in the values in your spreadsheet.

Thanks for the tip. Do you know if the limit for the amount of sheets you can connet (Bet Angel (2), Bet Angel (3)) to gaurdian is limited to 10? I would like to have many more fixtures connected but I'm not sure if it is possible.

[Derek27]

I have built a Poisson distribution model (more sophisticated then Peters) which is more accurate and I am looking at applying it as an automation strategy. Do you know how to allow betangel to interact with a spreadsheet? I can share the spreadsheet if you are interested.

If you read the Excel integration part of the manual, it explains how to connect BA with a BA Excel template. You can easily add your spreadsheet to the template in a separate sheet, then either use Excel functions or VBA code to place bets based in the values in your spreadsheet.

Thanks for the tip. Do you know if the limit for the amount of sheets you can connet (Bet Angel (2), Bet Angel (3)) to gaurdian is limited to 10? I would like to have many more fixtures connected but I'm not sure if it is possible.

I'm not aware of any limit. I have 15 on mine. If there is an absolute limit, it's probably 255 or 65,535.

I think any sheet that begins with the name "Bet Angel" will be connectable to BA but the practical limit will be down to the speed of your PC and how demanding your data processing is.