Lay the 1st Set Winner Guardian Automation Bot for Tennis

[jimibt]

Thanks for the advice. The lay bet for this strategy places at fixed odds of 1.61 as that’s the highest liability I’m willing to accept. This particular bet matched at 1.15 and would have made a nice little profit had this second rule triggered at ~1.58. I had my eye on it and I did manage to grab a smaller profit when I noticed it hadn’t triggered.

if 1.61 represents the highest odds you're willing to accept, then viz a viz you have an upper acceptable liability. obviously, below 2 odds the bang for buck on fixed staking is (arguably) BETTER than staking by liability. HOWEVER, if you have an upper threshold (££), then just stake by liability to that amount and you'll seldom/ever go wrong...

just my 2c (by liability )

[TraderAaron]

Thanks. None of this explains why the darn rule didn’t trigger though. Fresh mind in the morning might be able to figure it out.

[sniffer66]

I go with Jims call on the Lay Bet = £10 preventing the rule triggering as well.

Either go with a count of Lay bets matched, or if you may have previous lays use a P&L calc to an SV to work out your liability to calc how much to back at the back price. I do this when laying by liability so I can remove x% with the back. That way you are always working with known quantities.

[TraderAaron]

It’s definitely not that. It has never stopped a rule from triggering before. Like I say, this strat only places one lay bet to a fixed amount of £10, it was fully matched when it reached the market. There were no other bets placed on the market.

[sniffer66]

You didnt stop/start or reapply the automation at any point ? Asking in case any signal was set. I have a rule at the start of my tennis automation to clear all signals and SV's, just in case they are previously set.
That would affect your time since set condition

Shouldnt be an issue with the 20s to 40s window either, unless you have loads of markets and a huge reresh rate...

[TraderAaron]

Nope, automation was left to run without any interference and was the only market i was monitoring in guardian at the time.

I'm glad its not something glaringly obvious and I'm not being stupid.

I'm starting to think it could have been a mini network outage on either my side or Betfair's side. There's no other reasonable explanation? Although it still should have triggered the rule right? Even if the bet didn't reach the market. In the automation tab it hadn't triggered.

[sniffer66]

Possibly.

I'd still go with the previous suggestion of Lay bets > £x though just to be sure. If its the only lay going in it could even be > £0

Though, what happens if you arent fully matched ? Like I said before I'd lay and then calc my P&L on that player using a stored value. Then you can use that value to calc the value of the back based on the price you are eventually backing at

I had a discussion with Dallas re doing similar here

viewtopic.php?f=37&t=21985&p=234735&hil ... ty#p234735

Works fine as discussed. To create your free bet you could then just back to 100%

[TraderAaron]

Yeah I see what you mean. However, the signal changed condition allows the market to settle during the interval between sets and my stake is tiny compared to the amounts thrown around on the markets so it will get matched. If i ever get to the stage where I can throw around big stakes then i will definitely need to look into this.

But for now, why didn't this rule trigger?

[sniffer66]

Yeah I see what you mean. However, the signal changed condition allows the market to settle during the interval between sets and my stake is tiny compared to the amounts thrown around on the markets so it will get matched. If i ever get to the stage where I can throw around big stakes then i will definitely need to look into this.

But for now, why didn't this rule trigger?

Yeah, I do the same on the settle, though I extend mine out quite a bit longer. On bigger stakes the extra ticks can make quite a difference on profit

Still stuck on the reason why. All I can suggest is play around with using a different condition for the Lay= £10 and see if it makes any difference - a few different ways you can cut that one. Even take it out to test, if you are 100% convinced you will get matched i.e lay at 2nd/3rd best market price

[dustybearuk]

Is it possible to change this to lay either 1st set winner?

[Dallas]

Is it possible to change this to lay either 1st set winner?

Yes, you need to remove the first 'Fix order rule'
Then apply the remaining rules to ANY selection

[PeeBee74]

Hi Dallas
I wondered if you could check the attached for me. My intention is to use it on 2 evenly-matched players if I think it will be a close game, and so would want to lay the 1st set winner regardless of who it is.

Tonight on Thompson v Harris, it laid Thompson, but the back bets didn't fire when Harris broke him in set 2. I think the problem is the bottom of the general tab - applies to player in position 1 (favouritism). I think Thompson, after being broken, was no longer the favourite and went slightly above odds of 2.
To solve this would I change this to "Any Selection"?
As ever, many thanks.

[Dallas]

Hi Dallas
I wondered if you could check the attached for me. My intention is to use it on 2 evenly-matched players if I think it will be a close game, and so would want to lay the 1st set winner regardless of who it is.

Tonight on Thompson v Harris, it laid Thompson, but the back bets didn't fire when Harris broke him in set 2. I think the problem is the bottom of the general tab - applies to player in position 1 (favouritism). I think Thompson, after being broken, was no longer the favourite and went slightly above odds of 2.
To solve this would I change this to "Any Selection"?
As ever, many thanks.

If you add a 'Fix Order of market selections' rule and arm it to trigger 1 time at the start time
You can then leave the rest of the rules as they are - it won't matter how the odds move in-play the pre match fav will always be fav for the purposes of rules applied to it

[PeeBee74]

Sorry Dallas - I'm confused. I don't care who the pre-match fave is, so I am not sure I need to fix the order of favoritism do I?
The back bets are currently aimed at the favourite. I think the problem is that may not be the player I want to back, and fixing the order still doesn't guarantee the back bets get aimed at the right player. I hope that makes sense.
Which is why I asked if changing the "applies to selection" drop-down to "any selection" - presumably this would only result in back bets against the player already laid, and not the player without a lay bet against them already

[Dallas]

Sorry Dallas - I'm confused. I don't care who the pre-match fave is, so I am not sure I need to fix the order of favoritism do I?
The back bets are currently aimed at the favourite. I think the problem is that may not be the player I want to back, and fixing the order still doesn't guarantee the back bets get aimed at the right player. I hope that makes sense.
Which is why I asked if changing the "applies to selection" drop-down to "any selection" - presumably this would only result in back bets against the player already laid, and not the player without a lay bet against them already

You could do it either way tbh, if you wanted to use 'ANY' selection you'd need to change all three of the betting rules, I think the conditions currently used will identify the back bets will trigger on the correct player so nothing to change on there