Create a No Lose Trade on Fav and Profit on the Field Guardian Automation Bot (Lay)

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shakey1964
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:56 pm
Location: Usually in my truck

Hi all
This is a Lay version of the file created by Dallas back in 2017 which, at post time, the bot places a back bet at the best price on the Fav using a £10 liability stake, once the race goes in-play the bot will place a lay bet also using a £10 liability stake at 15 ticks below the BSP.
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=13579
I have modified it to place a lay bet first with a liability of £2.00
The stake is irrelevant as far as the automation goes and can be changed easy enough but I wasn't prepared to risk £300 on a days 30 race race card :o if everything went pear shaped.
Starting on the 18th January 22 I ran this in practice mode across all races (U.K. and Ire.) and have entered the findings into an Excel spreadsheet with the following information
Date
Horse
Days since last run
Ave Race Style (1 for front runner - 4 for a back lagger)
Ave Tick Drop ( This is the average ticks the market "Dropped" in running across the runners previous races)
Jockey
Meeting
Race Distance
Wins (previous wins of runner)
Races (Previous number of races ran)
Win %
Race type
Going on the day
Post time
Actual "Off" Time
Time Difference (The time difference in minute:seconds between post and off time)
Lay Price (The actual price laid by Betangel 5 seconds after post time)
Actual BSP (Taken from Timeform results page)
Tick Difference (Number of ticks +/- between laid price and BSP)
Back Price (The actaul back price betangel backed the runner whether it was matched or not)
Tick Difference from Laid Price ( The difference between the laid price and the price backed which is 15 ticks above the actual BSP)
Matched (Yes or No whether the back price was taken)
I-P high (the price the market rose to in play)
Ticks from BSP (The number of ticks between the I-P high and the actual BSP)
The Result ( Runners position at the end of the race)

I have just finished entering the stats from Thursdays races and post the spreadsheet below
No Lose lay to back fav.xlsx
The baf file is posted below

Create a No Lose Trade on Fav & Profit on the Field (Lay).baf
The spreadsheet is in a table form so a pivot table can be created to determine (with the limited information so far) likely runners that are unlikely to have the back bet matched in running such as really short price front runners in shorter distance races
Please share your thoughts
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MobiusGrey
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:10 pm

shakey1964 wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:55 am
Hi all
This is a Lay version of the file created by Dallas back in 2017 which, at post time, the bot places a back bet at the best price on the Fav using a £10 liability stake, once the race goes in-play the bot will place a lay bet also using a £10 liability stake at 15 ticks below the BSP.
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=13579
I have modified it to place a lay bet first with a liability of £2.00
Trialling this on the remainder of the races today. I've added in an additional filter to only place the lay if the race looks like it could be close based on pre-off odds and the race is over 8f
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

shakey1964 wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:55 am
The stake is irrelevant as far as the automation goes
Except that sub-min stake bets take twice as long.
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MobiusGrey
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:10 pm

MobiusGrey wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:44 pm


Trialling this on the remainder of the races today. I've added in an additional filter to only place the lay if the race looks like it could be close based on pre-off odds and the race is over 8f
Nothing remarkable to be fair, I achieved better results laying at random.
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shakey1964
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:56 pm
Location: Usually in my truck

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 3:25 pm
shakey1964 wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:55 am
The stake is irrelevant as far as the automation goes
Except that sub-min stake bets take twice as long.
Thanks for pointing that out as I forgot to mention that even though I did point it out in the original thread :oops:

Just finished putting Fridays results into the spreadsheet (Are weekends not for relaxing anymore, I have to start peeling sprouts soon for Sunday Dinner :roll: )
No Lose lay to back fav.xlsx
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shakey1964
Posts: 118
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:56 pm
Location: Usually in my truck

Hi All
With the limited data entered so far I have just produced a quick pivot table just to highlight the 4 main race types
Flat A.W.
Hurdle
Chase
NHF

Of the 55 A.W. races run since I started this and not including yesterdays data 11 horses (Favs) won of these 11, 4 back bets were not matched and 7 were.
This leaves 44 profitable trades 7 break even and 4 total stake loss
Working on an average of a 10% return on profitable trades and my £2.00 liability stake this leaves us with a small profit of 80p 8-)
Its a start !!
Of these 55 races 9 were run over 7f and not 1 favourite won
Use this spreadsheet to have a play
No Lose lay to back fav with pivot table.xlsx
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