Back the Likely Winner Automation Bot for Horse Racing

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elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

the trouble with small amounts its harder to green up and you only need one to go wrong and puts you well back
in this trade ive just tried to add dallas other criteria of signaling if still clear fav or changes though not sure that would matter but maybe i possibilty that if the fav remains the fav to place the bet .. maybe dallas can input on that one ..
my setting in original file are for parameters is for
custom % below best market price 3%
fixed amount £10
conditions
market is in play
last traded price less than 1.25
weight of money greater than 90%
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TallblokeUK
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:25 am

When you say still the clear fave using the historic odds thing? That works ok for me. I look back 4 seconds to check the price was below the set value.
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

not got that part working yet
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

the problem im finding with this is if there are 2 horses too close at the end ..
iggypop37
Posts: 98
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:05 pm

elofan0 wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:08 pm
the problem im finding with this is if there are 2 horses too close at the end ..
yeah - it is a perennial issue. quite useful I think is to use a dutching automation rule on the top 3/4/5 horses as appropriate prior to post time and then use the back the likely winner rule to 'catch' any late potential winner that you hadn't dutched.

Again be careful to set a signal on the selections you initially dutched, to eliminate them
from any later backing

as with all these things though it isnt 100% reliable but should certainly mitigate losses.
TallblokeUK
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:25 am

iggypop37 wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:09 pm
elofan0 wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:08 pm
the problem im finding with this is if there are 2 horses too close at the end ..
yeah - it is a perennial issue. quite useful I think is to use a dutching automation rule on the top 3/4/5 horses as appropriate prior to post time and then use the back the likely winner rule to 'catch' any late potential winner that you hadn't dutched.

Again be careful to set a signal on the selections you initially dutched, to eliminate them
from any later backing

as with all these things though it isnt 100% reliable but should certainly mitigate losses.
Just having a play with this in practice mode.
Dutch 1st/2nd/3rd Pre-Off and set signals then Place the in running back bet on the likely winner.

Just not sure on the maths of this one to make sure you're bets are always higher than potential gains!
TallblokeUK
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:25 am

iggypop37 wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:09 pm
elofan0 wrote:
Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:08 pm
the problem im finding with this is if there are 2 horses too close at the end ..
yeah - it is a perennial issue. quite useful I think is to use a dutching automation rule on the top 3/4/5 horses as appropriate prior to post time and then use the back the likely winner rule to 'catch' any late potential winner that you hadn't dutched.

Again be careful to set a signal on the selections you initially dutched, to eliminate them
from any later backing

as with all these things though it isnt 100% reliable but should certainly mitigate losses.
Actually, I assume you place your In-Running back bet using %Book Price with the same stake as the dutching?
iggypop37
Posts: 98
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:05 pm


Just having a play with this in practice mode.
Dutch 1st/2nd/3rd Pre-Off and set signals then Place the in running back bet on the likely winner.

Just not sure on the maths of this one to make sure you're bets are always higher than potential gains!

I havent got that far myself yet and to be honest I dont think you can ever rule out a loss. maybe if your target was to break even on the 3 dutched runners then to come in with a small bet later on either on one of those 3, or any any other likely winner ?
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

sounds like another good idea iggypop i had one instance yesterday were i did ok for around 10 races on the bounce then
a close finish between 2 selections swapped on the last second mainly because the amount to green was possibly too low ie 0.55p or greater wiped out my profit and gave me a loss with an hesitation in the market and it wasnt quick enough to green out ... i also think cos id got another webpage up it added to the hesitation ... i dont use guardian myself i do like the servants though
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

also the sprint races maybe the ones to cause a loss as they are fast races all closing at the end
need a rule where as no bet if 2 runners are there at the end
also need a rule that if a selection remains the favourite all the race
TallblokeUK
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:25 am

elofan0 wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 1:59 pm
also the sprint races maybe the ones to cause a loss as they are fast races all closing at the end
need a rule where as no bet if 2 runners are there at the end
I was just looking into that scenario (or similar) where all the runners are really close.

You've backed the favourites pre-off, your back bet triggers in race... and then a 5th horse goes and wins.

Sunset Eyes 9 0.22 Back -0.22
Pearl Of Asia 6.40 0.31 Back -0.31
Spydas Corner 3.15 0.63 Back -0.63
Winter Storm 34 0.62 Back -0.62 (In-Running Back Bet)

Of course, if that in-running bet had come in ;)
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

yes in a fast run race like a sprint there is no time to look at signals the race would be over so an automation rule is needed like the one that looks to see if clear fav at the beginning of the race also needs to be towards the end of the race so the bet doesnt trigger ie if fav less than 1.25 for instance nothing is in the vercinity
TallblokeUK
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:25 am

elofan0 wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 2:17 pm
yes in a fast run race like a sprint there is no time to look at signals the race would be over so an automation rule is needed like the one that looks to see if clear fav at the beginning of the race also needs to be towards the end of the race so the bet doesnt trigger ie if fav less than 1.25 for instance nothing is in the vercinity
The in-running back is at 1.4 at the moment, too high you think?
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

yeah but if your in profit your doing good ... small odds, small returns using big stakes wipes out the good trades unfortunately ...
TallblokeUK
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:25 am

Profit, not yet, but working on it!

Happy with small profits across many races, but for that to work need a good strike rate ;)
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