Back all Runners if They Trade Below 3.0 Automation Bot

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Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

This is a Guardian advanced automation bot for use on horse racing markets.

This bot will back each runner at 3.0 for £10 if they trade at or below these odds, it uses the ‘Number of place bet triggers condition’ to ensure only 1 bet per runner is placed and a ‘signal set condition’ to ensure the rule only triggers on races if the BSP of the fav at the start of the race was 3.4 or greater.

To use the file just click on the Back all Runners if They Trade Below 3.0 Baf attachment link below and this will download it to your computer, then with guardian open on the "Automation" tab click "Import a Rules File" as shown in the image, once imported it will now appear in the drop down box just above, you can now apply it to any markets you have added into guardian.

To see a video tutorial on how to download and import an automation file into your Bet Angel please see this link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7Im4pj683g

The stake size as with all other aspects of this file can also be edited very easily by clicking on "Edit Rules File" then click on the "General, Parameters & Conditions" tab and change to whatever you require.

Additional parts/conditions can also be added or removed from the bot as you build it into your own bespoke automation file.

With any automation bot always run in practice mode first to ensure everything is working fine, and repeat this each time you make any changes


To see a video tutorial on how to download and import an automation file into your Bet Angel please see this link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7Im4pj683g
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welshtrekker
Posts: 45
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:12 pm

Has this worked to an extent for anyone?
Looks like a lossy approach but maybe some have greened correctly.
Khloec
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 4:39 pm

welshtrekker wrote:Has this worked to an extent for anyone?
Looks like a lossy approach but maybe some have greened correctly.

I'm using a version of this at the moment with a little success, however there are many ways to lose with this approach. You HAVE to catch all that cross that odds line, if you miss one, which is beyond easy to do especially during the end of the race all the bets you have placed are loss making obviously. Its quite easy to catch in play for the majority of the race as if any go under and you don't catch then they usually come back out. Its at the end of the race when all hell breaks lose and at that point you have no chance.

If only one comes in and u catch, then that's £2 off a 1 stake at those odds, 2 is £1, and 3 coming in you break even, but not quite with the commission.

These are some figures for Extra, running tomorrow and distance for odds of 3.0

Year 2015
Course Extr
Distance 2
Odds wanted 3.0
Odds caught at 3.0
Total Races 35.0
Profit/Loss 4.75
Per Race 0.1357142857142857

[2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 4.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 4.0, 2.0]


All the numbers are horses that traded below 3.0 in this case during the race. Return is based off a £1 stake...anything below 3 you win, if u catch of course, anything above is a loss. The figures show that if u catch all, overall you will make 13.5p in the pound over time, not bad..13%, Its like the Pokémon's though...u got to catch em all

Another issue with this system is that no horses can really start below your odds unless you confident they will go out to be matched as the line is so fine if you lose ticks off your catch then the profit drops in no time.

The same data for odds at 3.2....

Year 2015
Course Extr
Distance 2
Odds wanted 3.2
Odds caught at 3.2
Total Races 30.0
Profit/Loss 4.750000000000007
Per Race 0.15833333333333358

[2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 4.0, 3.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 4.0, 6.0, 2.0]

Seems a little better, so you bet at 3.2 to catch at 3.0...however then you pick up the losers that wouldn't have made it below 3.0 even, would make a little more if u catch yourself at 3.2 but that's why you going to 3.2 to catch at 3.0... and your profit goes to this

Year 2015
Course Extr
Distance 2
Odds wanted 3.2
Odds caught at 3.0
Total Races 30.0
Profit/Loss -0.9499999999999997
Per Race -0.031666666666666655

[2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 4.0, 3.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 5.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 4.0, 6.0, 2.0]

If you can get the price you want and catch em all then it will work. I'm not knocking the system as I'm using it myself at moment for in play and its made a profit every day for the last week, but this rule as itself wont make a profit in the long run imo unless modified, but that's the fun isn't it!
welshtrekker
Posts: 45
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:12 pm

Yes. I queried as I have tested versions of this with 2 horses.
all were lossy as hell and despite many signals and condition changes, every time the lay bet alternative was better i.e. laying below 2 or 3 not backing.
Found backing better when placing a bet at long odds on favs.
If you could get all 3 to match in a back to lay way, say at least 2 horses laid off at around 1.5 to 2, that may work.
Also, perhaps with a close eye or a condition on the odds difference to check for steamers e.g. a horse odds shift a lot and you can B2L off that steamer easily.
I think it needs a B2L aspect to work.
I have had success, though limited, on catching steamers so making B2L bets work.
welshtrekker
Posts: 45
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:12 pm

Okay, some success with this bot and it may get better.
I have tweaked it a bit to find trade points a bit more.
I am not sure about choosing horses above 5, and whether longer is needed.
Also I found it at its worst when allowing 6 fires, thankfully one bad loss was in practice mode.
Anyway this does work but not 'as is'.
work into your current back strategy.
I like B2L when not laying.
Nathane30
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:07 am

what tweaks have you made to get this to work?

been trying to build something similar but no success
Nathane30
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:07 am

just had a look through

place back bet
last traded price >3.05
current price <2.5
number of matched bets 0


would this catch those whose price drops quickly?
Nathane30
Posts: 40
Joined: Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:07 am

surely if you ask guardian to back @ 1.01 if current back price < 3.0 it will automatically take the best price available?
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Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Nathane30 wrote:
Mon Feb 20, 2017 6:30 pm
surely if you ask guardian to back @ 1.01 if current back price < 3.0 it will automatically take the best price available?
Yes thats right
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

I've been using something which is like this in principal. Mine has different parameters for price & fav price conditions and a large offset . But essentially the same.

As expected it's loss making on all races (over about 500 tested). I don't believe you can just tweak a rule into life, because you can't get a meaningful sample size for each value of each condition, in enough combinations of conditions to prove of disprove anything. The key tweak for me was to be selective about the markets I apply it to. The world is variable enough, distance, weather, going, surface, grade etc without fiddling around with even more variables.

So, since being selective about my markets it's traded just over 200 races, early days and it might stop working in the spring, but so far...

I select about 6 to 10 races a day, and it chooses to fire on 3.9 of them.
Per race to a £1 stake, commission deducted.

Median P/L : +0.27
STDEV P/L : 0.99
RoI : about 11% after commission
Worst winning odds: 1.51
Best winning odds : 5.9
Best odds obtained : 112 !

Sadly, the one backed at 112 didn't win .....but it was a 'nearly' moment I didn't expect. It's made me think about where the return SD curve sits on the theoretical min to theroretical max scale. That's a big old empty space on the right hand side. Maybe one day I'll get a winner up there somewhere and all these zero point this and zero point that figures will look pretty small.
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vladilyich
Posts: 127
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:58 pm

I have a strategy like this,untested and only done manually on occasion, where if I think there may be a longer priced winner I will simply back the field at 10.0 or 20.0 or whatever with a nominal 50p or £1. Could this strategy be adapted to do this?
tennistaxi
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 1:04 am

Hi,
Is there a way of multiplying this bot to back other set prices on the same bot. For example, back @ 3, @ 2.6 and 3.4

I have been running something similar, but due to race clashes and some bets not being place, I've been using multiple copies of Bet Angel. However, having so many copies of Bet Angel running is slowing things down on my PC.

I've tried to copy the rule for each new price into the existing file, but it's not placing the bets. I even tried to give each new rule a new signal rule, but again no good.

Any help greatly appreciated.

Thx
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Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

tennistaxi wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:16 am
Hi,
Is there a way of multiplying this bot to back other set prices on the same bot. For example, back @ 3, @ 2.6 and 3.4

I have been running something similar, but due to race clashes and some bets not being place, I've been using multiple copies of Bet Angel. However, having so many copies of Bet Angel running is slowing things down on my PC.

I've tried to copy the rule for each new price into the existing file, but it's not placing the bets. I even tried to give each new rule a new signal rule, but again no good.

Any help greatly appreciated.

Thx
Yes it can be edited to do that, just duplicate the whole rule (click the two green arrows icon)
Enter your new price on the parameters tab, then on the conditions change the fixed odds to trigger just above that price, then change the 'number of place bets triggers condition' to equals 2

Any further ones you add just increase that by 1 each time
tennistaxi
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 1:04 am

Gonna give that a try now

Thx Dallas,
gibby
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:41 pm

Hi Dallas,
Is it possible to modify this rule(s) to place a bet in running on the first horse to reach 1.5 instead of 3.0 and also to place a max of 2 bets per race, if so could you help please and describe how.
thanks in advance
Cheers
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